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Forums - Sales Discussion - Famitsu sales: Week 13, 2021 - (Mar 22 - Mar 28)

kopstudent89 said:
tbone51 said:

All games that hit 5mil+ (ship+digital)

NSW will have the most with a minimum 5 games lifetime.

01) 9.19mil: ACNH (NSW)
02) 8.22mil: PokeRB (GBC)
03) 7.17mil: PokeGS (GBC)
04) 6.81mil: SMB (FC)
05) 6.49mil: NSMB (DS)
06) 5.85mil: ACNL (3DS)
07) 5.85mil: PokeDP (DS)
08) 5.54mil: PokeBW (DS)
09) 5.40mil: PokeRS (GBA)
10) 5.35mil: ACWW (DS)
11) 5.30mil: MHP3 (PSP)
12) 5.19mil: PokeSwSh (NSW)
13) 5.17mil: SSBU (NSW)
14) 5.10mil: Brain Age 2 (DS)

*) 4.55mil: Splat2 (NSW)
*) 4.53mil: MK8D (NSW)

Bonus: super smash bros might surpass GS as the 3rd best selling game in japan

Wait wait, is AC:NH the best selling game of all time in Japan????

Only if you add Blue version that came out later then it adds up to 10.2mil but regardless ACNH will reach 12mil lifetime in japan



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badskywalker said:
Kakadu18 said:

Final Fantasy has been declining in Japan for a long time now. FFXV sold just over 1 million copies. It's nowhere near even DQ anymore. If FFXVI sells more than XV I will be surprised.

The PS5 will most likely sell less than the PS4 LT. I don't see any reason for it to do better. Starting with the PS3 the Playstation brand has seen a decline in Japan and with the Switch dominating the market I don't see the PS5 stopping this decline. My guess is the PS5 will sell 8mil at most.

I feel like the reasoning of the Playstation brand has seen a decline in Japan is very similar to the arguement regarding nintendo home consoles that, if you ignore the wii they've just declined generation over generation.

It should be noted however I believe it is ok to use this argument for video game franchises, as they have more data points to look off of, which is why I agree about FFXVI probably not selling as well as FFXV, but we shall have to wait and see.

it's a big difference.

With 580k the prevalence of the games is bad. Top 30 and you don't have one game on the charts.  The other big game set for May, 6 months after the release. The actual signals have shrunk the market because the data show no physical game on Top 30 now. You can compare it with other platforms and the PS5 is one the worst, with game sales, in physical form. And the direction of sony, with a winding down Japan Studio, corroborates this argument. 

The switch is a hybrid system and will sell more than 3DS and Wiiu combined. So the argument Nintendo home console in decline is bullshit at all. Now Nintendo is the top dog in the Japanese market. And the Wii before expands that home console Nintendo market too. So your point is a false equivalence because you ignoring Wii data and now we not ignoring actual data, the actual data shows the aggravation of the decline for Sony in the Japanese market. PS4 has all the thirds on this side, PS5 will have the same treatment? 

Last edited by Agente42 - on 03 April 2021

Agente42 said:
badskywalker said:

I feel like the reasoning of the Playstation brand has seen a decline in Japan is very similar to the arguement regarding nintendo home consoles that, if you ignore the wii they've just declined generation over generation.

It should be noted however I believe it is ok to use this argument for video game franchises, as they have more data points to look off of, which is why I agree about FFXVI probably not selling as well as FFXV, but we shall have to wait and see.

it's a big difference.

With 580k the prevalence of the games is bad. Top 30 and you don't have one game on the charts.  The other big game set for May, 6 months after the release. The actual signals have shrunk the market because the data show no physical game on Top 30 now. You can compare it with other platforms and the PS5 is one the worst, with game sales, in physical form. And the direction of sony, with a winding down Japan Studio, corroborates this argument. 

The switch is a hybrid system and will sell more than 3DS and Wiiu combined. So the argument Nintendo home console in decline is bullshit at all. Now Nintendo is the top dog in the Japanese market. And the Wii before expands that home console Nintendo market too. So your point is a false equivalence because you ignoring Wii data and now we not ignoring actual data, the actual data shows the aggravation of the decline for Sony in the Japanese market. PS4 has all the thirds on this side, PS5 will have the same treatment? 

I agree with the first paragraph, as it adds context to your original point. That's more than people who argued the nintendo home console thing. I'm not one of those people, but there are many who have used this argument in the past (and have continued to use so even to today since the switch isn't a true home console). I'm aware that it is a false equivliancy for the reason there is evidence to support your argument, but it is not a false equilvilancy for the evidence you chose to provide.



noshten said:

Yep, even with a much larger investment into Anime games, Sony will still struggle to maintain 20% market share in terms of hardware which will lead to Software being lopsided in Nintendo's favor. Nintendo obviously sales the bulk of software on the Switch but that's mainly because of the subpar support. The rest of the year there is actually plenty of 3rd Party games releasing that could do very well. While on the PS4/PS5, I struggle to think of a game that's going to surpass 300K the rest of the year. Seemingly that Ghost of Tsushima will probably be the last game to reach 300K on the PS4 and I don't think any game revelaed this year on the PS5 will sale more than 300K, there is probably a cross-gen title that could do it on the PS4/PS5 

Software Market Share by Year(gamedatalibrary):

  • 2016: Nintendo 52.7% vs Sony 47%
  • 2017: Nintendo 62.3% vs Sony 37.6%
  • 2018: Nintendo 58.4% vs Sony 41.6%
  • 2019: Nintendo 66.7% vs Sony 33.3%

For last year since I made that post in August we had Nintendo finish with around 80% of the Market in 2020, this year with the sales we know we are closing in on 97% market share. There is not much hope for Resident Evil: Village to actually surpass 300K physical sales across the PS4/PS5 with the current trajectory of software sales on the Ecosystem. Also the PS5 might go an year before it even gets a game that would surpass 300K exclusively on the system. 

Top 20 Third Party(post PS5 Launch)

  1. [NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu (Konami) - 2.072.296
  2. [NSW] Monster Hunter Rise (Capcom) - 1.302.132
  3. [NSW] Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity (Koei Tecmo) - 354.983 
  4. [NSW] Story of Seasons: Pioneers of Olive Town (Marvelous) - 262.501
  5. [NSW] Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin (Marvelous) - 144.082 
  6. [NSW] Bravely Default II (Square Enix) - 131.317
  7. [NSW] Derby Stallion (Game Addict) - 121.740 
  8. [PS4] Cyberpunk 2077 (Spike Chunsoft) - 115.813
  9. [NSW] Puyo Puyo Tetris 2 (Sega) - 84.758
  10. [NSW] Fitness Boxing 2: Rhythm & Exercise (Imagineer) - 84.360
  11. [PS4] Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin (Marvelous) - 77.240
  12. [NSW] Minecraft Dungeons: Hero Edition (Microsoft) - 76.784
  13. [NSW] Taiko no Tatsujin: Rhythmic Adventure Pack (Bandai Namco) - 64.948 
  14. [PS4] Assassin's Creed: Valhalla (Ubisoft) - 61.345
  15. [PS4] Dragon Quest XI S (Square Enix) - 61.063
  16. [NSW] Little Nightmares II (Bandai Namco) - 56.273
  17. [NSW] Family Trainer (Bandai Namco) -  51.926
  18. [PS4] Atelier Ryza 2 (Koei Tecmo) - 51.861
  19. [NSW] Yo-kai Watch Jam (Level 5) - 42.077
  20. [NSW] Atelier Ryza 2 (Koei Tecmo) - 39.532

TOTAL: 5.180.247

PS4: 290.538

NSW: 4.889.709

TOP 5 PUBLISHERS:

  1. Konami - 2.072.296
  2. Capcom - 1.302.132
  3. Marvelous - 483.823
  4. Koei Tecmo - 446.376
  5. Square Enix - 192.380

There is simply no turning things around this year without major announcements, currently there is just very little exclusive software on the PS4/PS5. Overall the momentum of third party software sales on the Switch will continue to accelerate in the coming months - Rune Factory 5, SMT V, Shin Kun, Baseball Spirits, Stories 2 are all third party exclusives set to drop this summer, while Monster Hunter Rise will continue to lead the way. 

In the meantime we still don't have a third party game on the PS5 to surpass 100K until Resident Evil: Village but even that is not a certainty, as it could be that the PS4 version achieves 150K while the PS5 one struggles to reach 100K. We know that in the past Japanese third parties had a multiplat strategy but so far the PS5 version of games have been an afterthought. Cyberpunk 2077, Atelier Ryza 2, Sakuna DQXIS all lacked a PS5 version at launch while AC:V & Godfall barely managed 10K between their PS5 versions combined 

Village is the first major game on the system and to me it's certain to struggle, the environment in which the PS5 launches is unfavorable to software sales on the system. I know outside of Japan & South Korea/Taiwan, Switch hasn't negatively impacted PS5 software but in Japan & South Korea/Taiwan there has certainly been part of the active audience that has migrated off the PlayStation and is no longer purchasing new software on the system.

This is certainly noticed by third parties, the current software sales on both the PS4 & PS5 cannot really sustain Japanese AA games. With the diminishing operations of Sony in Japan, their exclusive partners are also losing store & marketing presence - this will further accelerate certain decisions regarding the future of some studios and publishers. Without serious money-hat a lot of games will lack motivation to appear on the system. 

Last year during the first four months, third parties were still selling better on the PS4, we noticed this with Trails of Mana, Pirate Warriors 4, Persona 5 Strikers etc - however around July with eBaseball the trend started that multi-plats sold better on the Switch. Atelier 2 is the only franchise that saw greater sales on the PS4 compared to the Switch in the past 5 months. So far this year games are struggling to reach 50K on the PS4 & the best selling game is Little Nightmares 2 with 24.968 

[PS4] Persona 5 Strikers (Atlus) - 164.962 
[NSW] Persona 5 Strikers (Atlus) - 79.250 

[PS4] One Piece: Pirate Warriors 4 (Bandai Namco) - 142.670
[NSW] One Piece: Pirate Warriors 4 (Bandai Namco) - 137.513

[PS4] Trials of Mana (Square Enix) - 142.979
[NSW] Trials of Mana (Square Enix) - 112.277

[NSW] eBaseball Powerful Pro Baseball 2020 (Konami) - 284.876 
[PS4] eBaseball Powerful Pro Baseball 2020 (Konami) - 189.649

[NSW] Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles (Square Enix) - 64.687 
[PS4] Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles (Square Enix) - 38.200 

[NSW] Shin Megami Tensei III: Nocturne HD Remaster (Atlus) - 68.280 
[PS4] Shin Megami Tensei III: Nocturne HD Remaster (Atlus) - 62.511 

[NSW] Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin (Marvelous) - 144.082
[PS4] Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin (Marvelous) - 77.240

[PS4] Atelier Ryza 2 (Koei Tecmo) - 51.861 
[NSW] Atelier Ryza 2 (Koei Tecmo) - 39.532 

[NSW] Little Nightmares II (Bandai Namco) - 56.273
[PS4] Little Nightmares II (Bandai Namco) - 24.968 

The PlayStation 4 launched in far more favorable conditions - 3DS had already peaked; Wii U was pretty much on life-support - so the default future ecosystem for third party games had to be PlayStation, we saw support for the PS3/PS4/PSV create a large enough audience in Japan to sustain AA games for a few years; but as the Switch launched this quickly changed. PSV audience transitioned to Switch and right now we are seeing PS4 audience also transition to Switch. This leaves a niche group that's mostly there for Western & Japanese AAA games. The steady amount of games PS4 got as devs transitioned from PSV/PS3 to the system ensured that up until last year when it seemed that the PS4 might catch-up to the PS3. However the PS5's launch changed this as Sony pretty much surrendered store space by not supplying much PS4's through-out last year; and the launch of the PS5 itself was not really met with adequate hardware supply or new exclusive titles catering to the Japanese audience. The current software situation for Sony in Japan, puts those companies that aligned their pipelines in the past few years to them in a very unfavorable position; while the third parties who embraced Switch are seeing massive gains. 



Yeah, while 62k hardware is good to see after many weeks of low hardware numbers, not a single PS5 game selling over 2170 copies to break the top 30 is a pretty low bar to fail to clear. 

Granted, it's not like PS5 has a whole lot of games yet, but I'd expect to see Demon's Souls or Miles Mirales to be over a mere 2170 on a week like this where some much needed supply has finally reached stores. 



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

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curl-6 said:

Yeah, while 62k hardware is good to see after many weeks of low hardware numbers, not a single PS5 game selling over 2170 copies to break the top 30 is a pretty low bar to fail to clear. 

Granted, it's not like PS5 has a whole lot of games yet, but I'd expect to see Demon's Souls or Miles Mirales to be over a mere 2170 on a week like this where some much needed supply has finally reached stores. 

it'll be interesting to see if there is a delayed response next week



Otter said:
curl-6 said:

Yeah, while 62k hardware is good to see after many weeks of low hardware numbers, not a single PS5 game selling over 2170 copies to break the top 30 is a pretty low bar to fail to clear. 

Granted, it's not like PS5 has a whole lot of games yet, but I'd expect to see Demon's Souls or Miles Mirales to be over a mere 2170 on a week like this where some much needed supply has finally reached stores. 

it'll be interesting to see if there is a delayed response next week

Could be; at this point it's just bizarre. With over 62,000 people buying a PS5 last week, how did not even 1 in 20 of them grab any single PS5 game?



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

So we are looking at 2.5 million in Japan 10 days in, physical for me is expected to be around 300K, great second week and looking forward to how it debuted in South Korea & Taiwan as the game is likely to have at least 500K sales across rest of Asia right now. 



I have a feeling Rise's physical sales will be lower than expected in this week's numbers as Capcom seem to be undershipping it, with the difference made up for by a higher than usual digital ratio.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

I'm a bit late with this table with new numbers coming today but here it is nonetheless. Should Week 14 be as good as Week 13, PS5 will outsell PS4 launch aligned in Japan (and then proceed to gain a considerable lead in the next weeks).

WeekPS4PS5Weekly Diff.PS4 Cumul.PS5 Cumul.Cumul. Diff.
1309,154118,082-191,072309,154118,082-191,072
265,68542,891-22,794374,839160,973-213,866
335,29440,4595,165410,133201,432-208,701
429,67711,893-17,784439,810213,325-226,485
535,37411,056-24,318475,184224,381-250,803
623,32717,578-5,749498,511241,959-256,552
713,40110,632-2,769511,912252,591-259,321
813,03413,188154524,946265,779-259,167
914,39611,164-3,232539,342276,943-262,399
1012,7127,328-5,384552,054284,271-267,783
1111,48617,3485,862563,540301,619-261,921
128,48025,94817,468572,020327,567-244,453
136,79213,5246,732578,812341,091-237,721
147,54322,89015,347586,355363,981-222,374
156,50825,03718,529592,863389,018-203,845
169,46633,83824,372602,329422,856-179,473
178,39522,50914,114610,724445,365-165,359
187,00937,85130,842617,733483,216-134,517
198,05934,65726,598625,792517,873-107,919
207,87662,29554,419633,668580,168-53,500


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