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noshten said:

Yep, even with a much larger investment into Anime games, Sony will still struggle to maintain 20% market share in terms of hardware which will lead to Software being lopsided in Nintendo's favor. Nintendo obviously sales the bulk of software on the Switch but that's mainly because of the subpar support. The rest of the year there is actually plenty of 3rd Party games releasing that could do very well. While on the PS4/PS5, I struggle to think of a game that's going to surpass 300K the rest of the year. Seemingly that Ghost of Tsushima will probably be the last game to reach 300K on the PS4 and I don't think any game revelaed this year on the PS5 will sale more than 300K, there is probably a cross-gen title that could do it on the PS4/PS5 

Software Market Share by Year(gamedatalibrary):

  • 2016: Nintendo 52.7% vs Sony 47%
  • 2017: Nintendo 62.3% vs Sony 37.6%
  • 2018: Nintendo 58.4% vs Sony 41.6%
  • 2019: Nintendo 66.7% vs Sony 33.3%

For last year since I made that post in August we had Nintendo finish with around 80% of the Market in 2020, this year with the sales we know we are closing in on 97% market share. There is not much hope for Resident Evil: Village to actually surpass 300K physical sales across the PS4/PS5 with the current trajectory of software sales on the Ecosystem. Also the PS5 might go an year before it even gets a game that would surpass 300K exclusively on the system. 

Top 20 Third Party(post PS5 Launch)

  1. [NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu (Konami) - 2.072.296
  2. [NSW] Monster Hunter Rise (Capcom) - 1.302.132
  3. [NSW] Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity (Koei Tecmo) - 354.983 
  4. [NSW] Story of Seasons: Pioneers of Olive Town (Marvelous) - 262.501
  5. [NSW] Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin (Marvelous) - 144.082 
  6. [NSW] Bravely Default II (Square Enix) - 131.317
  7. [NSW] Derby Stallion (Game Addict) - 121.740 
  8. [PS4] Cyberpunk 2077 (Spike Chunsoft) - 115.813
  9. [NSW] Puyo Puyo Tetris 2 (Sega) - 84.758
  10. [NSW] Fitness Boxing 2: Rhythm & Exercise (Imagineer) - 84.360
  11. [PS4] Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin (Marvelous) - 77.240
  12. [NSW] Minecraft Dungeons: Hero Edition (Microsoft) - 76.784
  13. [NSW] Taiko no Tatsujin: Rhythmic Adventure Pack (Bandai Namco) - 64.948 
  14. [PS4] Assassin's Creed: Valhalla (Ubisoft) - 61.345
  15. [PS4] Dragon Quest XI S (Square Enix) - 61.063
  16. [NSW] Little Nightmares II (Bandai Namco) - 56.273
  17. [NSW] Family Trainer (Bandai Namco) -  51.926
  18. [PS4] Atelier Ryza 2 (Koei Tecmo) - 51.861
  19. [NSW] Yo-kai Watch Jam (Level 5) - 42.077
  20. [NSW] Atelier Ryza 2 (Koei Tecmo) - 39.532

TOTAL: 5.180.247

PS4: 290.538

NSW: 4.889.709

TOP 5 PUBLISHERS:

  1. Konami - 2.072.296
  2. Capcom - 1.302.132
  3. Marvelous - 483.823
  4. Koei Tecmo - 446.376
  5. Square Enix - 192.380

There is simply no turning things around this year without major announcements, currently there is just very little exclusive software on the PS4/PS5. Overall the momentum of third party software sales on the Switch will continue to accelerate in the coming months - Rune Factory 5, SMT V, Shin Kun, Baseball Spirits, Stories 2 are all third party exclusives set to drop this summer, while Monster Hunter Rise will continue to lead the way. 

In the meantime we still don't have a third party game on the PS5 to surpass 100K until Resident Evil: Village but even that is not a certainty, as it could be that the PS4 version achieves 150K while the PS5 one struggles to reach 100K. We know that in the past Japanese third parties had a multiplat strategy but so far the PS5 version of games have been an afterthought. Cyberpunk 2077, Atelier Ryza 2, Sakuna DQXIS all lacked a PS5 version at launch while AC:V & Godfall barely managed 10K between their PS5 versions combined 

Village is the first major game on the system and to me it's certain to struggle, the environment in which the PS5 launches is unfavorable to software sales on the system. I know outside of Japan & South Korea/Taiwan, Switch hasn't negatively impacted PS5 software but in Japan & South Korea/Taiwan there has certainly been part of the active audience that has migrated off the PlayStation and is no longer purchasing new software on the system.

This is certainly noticed by third parties, the current software sales on both the PS4 & PS5 cannot really sustain Japanese AA games. With the diminishing operations of Sony in Japan, their exclusive partners are also losing store & marketing presence - this will further accelerate certain decisions regarding the future of some studios and publishers. Without serious money-hat a lot of games will lack motivation to appear on the system. 

Last year during the first four months, third parties were still selling better on the PS4, we noticed this with Trails of Mana, Pirate Warriors 4, Persona 5 Strikers etc - however around July with eBaseball the trend started that multi-plats sold better on the Switch. Atelier 2 is the only franchise that saw greater sales on the PS4 compared to the Switch in the past 5 months. So far this year games are struggling to reach 50K on the PS4 & the best selling game is Little Nightmares 2 with 24.968 

[PS4] Persona 5 Strikers (Atlus) - 164.962 
[NSW] Persona 5 Strikers (Atlus) - 79.250 

[PS4] One Piece: Pirate Warriors 4 (Bandai Namco) - 142.670
[NSW] One Piece: Pirate Warriors 4 (Bandai Namco) - 137.513

[PS4] Trials of Mana (Square Enix) - 142.979
[NSW] Trials of Mana (Square Enix) - 112.277

[NSW] eBaseball Powerful Pro Baseball 2020 (Konami) - 284.876 
[PS4] eBaseball Powerful Pro Baseball 2020 (Konami) - 189.649

[NSW] Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles (Square Enix) - 64.687 
[PS4] Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles (Square Enix) - 38.200 

[NSW] Shin Megami Tensei III: Nocturne HD Remaster (Atlus) - 68.280 
[PS4] Shin Megami Tensei III: Nocturne HD Remaster (Atlus) - 62.511 

[NSW] Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin (Marvelous) - 144.082
[PS4] Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin (Marvelous) - 77.240

[PS4] Atelier Ryza 2 (Koei Tecmo) - 51.861 
[NSW] Atelier Ryza 2 (Koei Tecmo) - 39.532 

[NSW] Little Nightmares II (Bandai Namco) - 56.273
[PS4] Little Nightmares II (Bandai Namco) - 24.968 

The PlayStation 4 launched in far more favorable conditions - 3DS had already peaked; Wii U was pretty much on life-support - so the default future ecosystem for third party games had to be PlayStation, we saw support for the PS3/PS4/PSV create a large enough audience in Japan to sustain AA games for a few years; but as the Switch launched this quickly changed. PSV audience transitioned to Switch and right now we are seeing PS4 audience also transition to Switch. This leaves a niche group that's mostly there for Western & Japanese AAA games. The steady amount of games PS4 got as devs transitioned from PSV/PS3 to the system ensured that up until last year when it seemed that the PS4 might catch-up to the PS3. However the PS5's launch changed this as Sony pretty much surrendered store space by not supplying much PS4's through-out last year; and the launch of the PS5 itself was not really met with adequate hardware supply or new exclusive titles catering to the Japanese audience. The current software situation for Sony in Japan, puts those companies that aligned their pipelines in the past few years to them in a very unfavorable position; while the third parties who embraced Switch are seeing massive gains.