A Pro isn't needed, the Switch is selling very well.  

Yeah, sure.  I have been hearing for 2 years it is "100% happening."  Yet, nothing.  And the last few articles I have seen have a 'new' Switch as a typical (non announced) hardware update.  Bigger battery, little things like that.  A Switch Pro isn't happening, IMHO.  But time will tell.

And really I think people underestimate the family nature of Nintendo's success.  The Switch is appealing to families who want to play couch coop, it is great with kids in the car for long trips.  And the thing is family fun isn't driven by the latest graphics.  Hardcore gamers care about power, nobody else does.  

Worst thing Nintendo can do at this point is create confusion with a new hardware model and alienate millions of people who just bought a switch.

There was a company who did all kinds of upgrades.  I remember a CD drive, 32x add-on....  followed by new hardware in the Saturn...  

That won't change even if we would remove PS4 and XBO unless we also remove the Switch.

They already have a couple millions under their belt, so they would be small, but visible nonetheless. So I think we could include those bars without it being unreadable. At the same time, I would remove 3DS/Vita, as they run their course, with one already long stopped selling and for the other stopped producing them, those are really in the past now.

I wouldn't say it's 100% happening, but considering that Nintendo has a history of upgrading their handhelds along the way, I would say chances are high of some upgrade being developed right now.

Also, NVidia is using the same chips for their NVidia Shield hardware, which gets updated ever other year. Launched in 2015 with upgrades in 2017 and 2019 so far, with those being the same hardware as in the old and new Switch model respectively, so chances are high that NVidia wants to release a new hardware upgrade for their Shield, too. So Nintendo practically gets a new chip for their Switch practically developed for free.

The question is, what will that be? My expectation is a shrink to 12nm for the Tegra X2, which would allow a decent uptick in performance without  taxing the battery much and without NVidia having to invest much for it's development.

I belive the Switch will do what the PS2 did back in 2006, selling 55 more million after the launch of the following console generation.

As of March 31st 2021, the Switch will be probably at 82 million units shipped in the end of its 4th year. And we will see the Switch being the cheap alternative for upcoming games, as was the PS2 (which received a great amount of games post 2006). So in 2025, I can definitly see the Switch reach 155 million, reaching:
- 105 million by the end of 2021
- 127 million by the end of 2022
- 143 million by the end of 2023
- 155 million by the end of 2024
- 160 million by the end of 2025 or end of production.

That actually sounds really fun. We should do that.

https://images.app.goo.gl/LjDTknLiG12A2bVh9

https://images.app.goo.gl/LjDTknLiG12A2bVh9

I expect an upgraded Switch, just not a Switch Pro.  I could see a slightly larger screen, longer battery life.  Maybe a mild improvement to CPU.  But when somebody claims a Switch Pro, to me that implies a significant upgrade, which I don't see happening.  Not when Switch sales are superb.  

One of the reasons for the PS2s long sales-tail was staggered launches. Sales were dying down in Japan & US by the time it launched in some South American or Middle Eastern countries iirc. (e.g. I think it launched officially in Brazil in 2009)

Today's launches are much more Worldwide, so to get a long sales-tail like the PS2 the Switch would need to enter new markets later in life, and I don't know how many viable markets there are left to create the kind of sales PS2 had.

That said your sales estimates would make a curve much more like DS sales anyway (high peak sales covering 2 years, then a fast drop) so the only odd thing is what you are considering the "launch of the following console generation" you say Switch will sell 55 million more after launch and your numbers detail 55 million after end of this year, so I guess you are expecting a Switch 2 to launch Q1 2022?

It's just so interesting the magnitude in Japan. Switch is outselling PS5 by about 15 to 1. And the PS5 is outselling the Xbox Series S/X by about 100 to 1.

Yes, impressive, almost insane. This also tells us that Japan still matters a lot and Sony sould care more for its motherland.

My expectations are a 1080p capable screen, an increase to 8GB RAM and 20-40% higher performance with the same or somewhat better battery life as the current model. I also expect an increase for the internal memory from 32GB to 128GB to go along with this performance increase.