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Forums - Sales Discussion - Global Hardware Jan 2-9 - Switch Best-Seller as PS5 and XS Stock Remains Low

Bofferbrauer2 said:
Rab said:

At the scale the graph is now, they would be hard to see 

That won't change even if we would remove PS4 and XBO unless we also remove the Switch.

They already have a couple millions under their belt, so they would be small, but visible nonetheless. So I think we could include those bars without it being unreadable. At the same time, I would remove 3DS/Vita, as they run their course, with one already long stopped selling and for the other stopped producing them, those are really in the past now.

Chrkeller said:

A Pro isn't needed, the Switch is selling very well.  

Yeah, sure.  I have been hearing for 2 years it is "100% happening."  Yet, nothing.  And the last few articles I have seen have a 'new' Switch as a typical (non announced) hardware update.  Bigger battery, little things like that.  A Switch Pro isn't happening, IMHO.  But time will tell.

And really I think people underestimate the family nature of Nintendo's success.  The Switch is appealing to families who want to play couch coop, it is great with kids in the car for long trips.  And the thing is family fun isn't driven by the latest graphics.  Hardcore gamers care about power, nobody else does.  

Worst thing Nintendo can do at this point is create confusion with a new hardware model and alienate millions of people who just bought a switch.

There was a company who did all kinds of upgrades.  I remember a CD drive, 32x add-on....  followed by new hardware in the Saturn...  

I wouldn't say it's 100% happening, but considering that Nintendo has a history of upgrading their handhelds along the way, I would say chances are high of some upgrade being developed right now.

Also, NVidia is using the same chips for their NVidia Shield hardware, which gets updated ever other year. Launched in 2015 with upgrades in 2017 and 2019 so far, with those being the same hardware as in the old and new Switch model respectively, so chances are high that NVidia wants to release a new hardware upgrade for their Shield, too. So Nintendo practically gets a new chip for their Switch practically developed for free.

The question is, what will that be? My expectation is a shrink to 12nm for the Tegra X2, which would allow a decent uptick in performance without  taxing the battery much and without NVidia having to invest much for it's development.

I expect an upgraded Switch, just not a Switch Pro.  I could see a slightly larger screen, longer battery life.  Maybe a mild improvement to CPU.  But when somebody claims a Switch Pro, to me that implies a significant upgrade, which I don't see happening.  Not when Switch sales are superb.  



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SKMBlake said:

I belive the Switch will do what the PS2 did back in 2006, selling 55 more million after the launch of the following console generation.

As of March 31st 2021, the Switch will be probably at 82 million units shipped in the end of its 4th year. And we will see the Switch being the cheap alternative for upcoming games, as was the PS2 (which received a great amount of games post 2006). So in 2025, I can definitly see the Switch reach 155 million, reaching:
- 105 million by the end of 2021
- 127 million by the end of 2022
- 143 million by the end of 2023
- 155 million by the end of 2024
- 160 million by the end of 2025 or end of production.

One of the reasons for the PS2s long sales-tail was staggered launches. Sales were dying down in Japan & US by the time it launched in some South American or Middle Eastern countries iirc. (e.g. I think it launched officially in Brazil in 2009)

Today's launches are much more Worldwide, so to get a long sales-tail like the PS2 the Switch would need to enter new markets later in life, and I don't know how many viable markets there are left to create the kind of sales PS2 had.

That said your sales estimates would make a curve much more like DS sales anyway (high peak sales covering 2 years, then a fast drop) so the only odd thing is what you are considering the "launch of the following console generation" you say Switch will sell 55 million more after launch and your numbers detail 55 million after end of this year, so I guess you are expecting a Switch 2 to launch Q1 2022?

Last edited by HigHurtenflurst - on 24 January 2021

It's just so interesting the magnitude in Japan. Switch is outselling PS5 by about 15 to 1. And the PS5 is outselling the Xbox Series S/X by about 100 to 1.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 125 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million)

PS5: 105 million Xbox Series S/X: 60 million

PS4: 122 mil (was 100 then 130 million) Xbox One: 50 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

Wman1996 said:

It's just so interesting the magnitude in Japan. Switch is outselling PS5 by about 15 to 1. And the PS5 is outselling the Xbox Series S/X by about 100 to 1.

Yes, impressive, almost insane. This also tells us that Japan still matters a lot and Sony sould care more for its motherland.



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A fart without stink is like a sky without stars.
TGS, Third Grade Shooter: brand new genre invented by Kevin Butler exclusively for Natal WiiToo Kinect. PEW! PEW-PEW-PEW! 
 


Chrkeller said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

That won't change even if we would remove PS4 and XBO unless we also remove the Switch.

They already have a couple millions under their belt, so they would be small, but visible nonetheless. So I think we could include those bars without it being unreadable. At the same time, I would remove 3DS/Vita, as they run their course, with one already long stopped selling and for the other stopped producing them, those are really in the past now.

Chrkeller said:

A Pro isn't needed, the Switch is selling very well.  

Yeah, sure.  I have been hearing for 2 years it is "100% happening."  Yet, nothing.  And the last few articles I have seen have a 'new' Switch as a typical (non announced) hardware update.  Bigger battery, little things like that.  A Switch Pro isn't happening, IMHO.  But time will tell.

And really I think people underestimate the family nature of Nintendo's success.  The Switch is appealing to families who want to play couch coop, it is great with kids in the car for long trips.  And the thing is family fun isn't driven by the latest graphics.  Hardcore gamers care about power, nobody else does.  

Worst thing Nintendo can do at this point is create confusion with a new hardware model and alienate millions of people who just bought a switch.

There was a company who did all kinds of upgrades.  I remember a CD drive, 32x add-on....  followed by new hardware in the Saturn...  

I wouldn't say it's 100% happening, but considering that Nintendo has a history of upgrading their handhelds along the way, I would say chances are high of some upgrade being developed right now.

Also, NVidia is using the same chips for their NVidia Shield hardware, which gets updated ever other year. Launched in 2015 with upgrades in 2017 and 2019 so far, with those being the same hardware as in the old and new Switch model respectively, so chances are high that NVidia wants to release a new hardware upgrade for their Shield, too. So Nintendo practically gets a new chip for their Switch practically developed for free.

The question is, what will that be? My expectation is a shrink to 12nm for the Tegra X2, which would allow a decent uptick in performance without  taxing the battery much and without NVidia having to invest much for it's development.

I expect an upgraded Switch, just not a Switch Pro.  I could see a slightly larger screen, longer battery life.  Maybe a mild improvement to CPU.  But when somebody claims a Switch Pro, to me that implies a significant upgrade, which I don't see happening.  Not when Switch sales are superb.  

My expectations are a 1080p capable screen, an increase to 8GB RAM and 20-40% higher performance with the same or somewhat better battery life as the current model. I also expect an increase for the internal memory from 32GB to 128GB to go along with this performance increase.



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yo33331 said:
SKMBlake said:

I belive the Switch will do what the PS2 did back in 2006, selling 55 more million after the launch of the following console generation.

As of March 31st 2021, the Switch will be probably at 82 million units shipped in the end of its 4th year. And we will see the Switch being the cheap alternative for upcoming games, as was the PS2 (which received a great amount of games post 2006). So in 2025, I can definitly see the Switch reach 155 million, reaching:
- 105 million by the end of 2021
- 127 million by the end of 2022
- 143 million by the end of 2023
- 155 million by the end of 2024
- 160 million by the end of 2025 or end of production.

The same can be said in the other way ..

- 97 million by the end of 2021
- 110 million by the end of 2022
- 116 million by the end of 2023
- 120 million by the end of 2024 or end of production.

Everything is possible ..

Just like no one would predict and say in 2009, that Wii would start to decline so rapidly and barely reach 100M(with only 20M to go, with years reaching almost 25M)..

And just like the DS which in theory should just like any normal console peak in let's say 2007 and then die, but it didn't started to fell of until 2011.

So it can go either way, and still at this point in time no one can be sure 100% what will happen or be certain at either outselling PS2 or even coming short of PS4 lifetime sales (as I already said, the scenario of wii death for example would see switch struggling to reach 120M).

We may have a clearer picture after this or maybe even next year, cuz you may be very good one year and bad the other ..

See PS4. In 2018 it was very strong selling console, everyone here would bet that it will reach at least 130M, and many say even more.. like 140 or 150 at most.

But 2020 it became clear that the console will have hard time reaching even 120M.

Then almost anyone though for example that 2020 was the switch peak year .. and obviously it wasn't .. and even the few that though that 2021 is the peak year of switch were predicting 24-25M at most, but the switch went to 28M..

Again I am not making any statement about what the console will sell.. because I don't know.

Just saying that, as it can go to 150 or 160 in best case scenario, so can go and to below 120M lifetime in the worst case scenario.

There are example for both of the cases with consoles.

Also you example with PS2 is not right .. PS2 did sold close to 60M after next gen launched (xbox 360) however you can not compare home console sales after next gen home console came out, with hybrid (and more portable than home because most of the people get it because they want handheld not home console - nintendo official statement ) that is in the middle of it's life and is not competing with dedicated home consoles such as PS5 and XBSX.

Switch declining to just 13 million sales next year and 6 million in 2023 is extremely unlikely.

It's also a bit of a fallacy to compare Switch to Wii as their circumstances are totally different. Software support for the Wii fell off a cliff because (in addition to poor localization policies which have since been fixed) Nintendo in 2011-2012 were making games for 4 systems; Wii, DS, 3DS, and Wii U, and they couldn't produce enough for all four so Wii got shafted.

Now that their hardware lines are unified that won't be a problem any more.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

yo33331 said:
SKMBlake said:

I belive the Switch will do what the PS2 did back in 2006, selling 55 more million after the launch of the following console generation.

As of March 31st 2021, the Switch will be probably at 82 million units shipped in the end of its 4th year. And we will see the Switch being the cheap alternative for upcoming games, as was the PS2 (which received a great amount of games post 2006). So in 2025, I can definitly see the Switch reach 155 million, reaching:
- 105 million by the end of 2021
- 127 million by the end of 2022
- 143 million by the end of 2023
- 155 million by the end of 2024
- 160 million by the end of 2025 or end of production.

The same can be said in the other way ..

- 97 million by the end of 2021
- 110 million by the end of 2022
- 116 million by the end of 2023
- 120 million by the end of 2024 or end of production.

Everything is possible ..

Just like no one would predict and say in 2009, that Wii would start to decline so rapidly and barely reach 100M(with only 20M to go, with years reaching almost 25M)..

And just like the DS which in theory should just like any normal console peak in let's say 2007 and then die, but it didn't started to fell of until 2011.

So it can go either way, and still at this point in time no one can be sure 100% what will happen or be certain at either outselling PS2 or even coming short of PS4 lifetime sales (as I already said, the scenario of wii death for example would see switch struggling to reach 120M).

We may have a clearer picture after this or maybe even next year, cuz you may be very good one year and bad the other ..

See PS4. In 2018 it was very strong selling console, everyone here would bet that it will reach at least 130M, and many say even more.. like 140 or 150 at most.

But 2020 it became clear that the console will have hard time reaching even 120M.

Then almost anyone though for example that 2020 was the switch peak year .. and obviously it wasn't .. and even the few that though that 2021 is the peak year of switch were predicting 24-25M at most, but the switch went to 28M..

Again I am not making any statement about what the console will sell.. because I don't know.

Just saying that, as it can go to 150 or 160 in best case scenario, so can go and to below 120M lifetime in the worst case scenario.

There are example for both of the cases with consoles.

Also you example with PS2 is not right .. PS2 did sold close to 60M after next gen launched (xbox 360) however you can not compare home console sales after next gen home console came out, with hybrid (and more portable than home because most of the people get it because they want handheld not home console - nintendo official statement ) that is in the middle of it's life and is not competing with dedicated home consoles such as PS5 and XBSX.

Too many things to answer to, and thanks overall for a comprehensive answer to what I said.

Some things to take into consideration:

- It was obvious that the Wii craze wouldn't last long, mostly sold on the fact that it was the cheapest console of its time (249$ vs 399$ and 499$) and its motion gaming novelty (or let's call it a gimmick). The games were great, but it wasn't really about the games, and with the Slim iterations of both more powerful consoles releasing in 2010, the Wii lost its relevance on the market.

- The DS got 4 models, the second (Lite) model sold the most. It sold great, but after Nintendo playing all of their cards.

Now, for the Switch, I belive it will still sell as many as it did until now for the years to come based on:

- Nintendo didn't played all of its cards, we still have BOTW 2, Metroid Prime 4, Bayonetta 3 and at least 1 new Pokémon generation to come before even considering the end of the console's life

- I also believe cloud versions of AAA 3rd party titles will help the Switch remaining relevant with the next-gen (or current-gen now) games

- And the most obvious: I do believe a new Switch model is still yet to come (with a notable difference, not like the 2019 revision)



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