I belive the Switch will do what the PS2 did back in 2006, selling 55 more million after the launch of the following console generation.
As of March 31st 2021, the Switch will be probably at 82 million units shipped in the end of its 4th year. And we will see the Switch being the cheap alternative for upcoming games, as was the PS2 (which received a great amount of games post 2006). So in 2025, I can definitly see the Switch reach 155 million, reaching:
- 105 million by the end of 2021
- 127 million by the end of 2022
- 143 million by the end of 2023
- 155 million by the end of 2024
- 160 million by the end of 2025 or end of production.
The same can be said in the other way ..
- 97 million by the end of 2021
- 110 million by the end of 2022
- 116 million by the end of 2023
- 120 million by the end of 2024 or end of production.
Everything is possible ..
Just like no one would predict and say in 2009, that Wii would start to decline so rapidly and barely reach 100M(with only 20M to go, with years reaching almost 25M)..
And just like the DS which in theory should just like any normal console peak in let's say 2007 and then die, but it didn't started to fell of until 2011.
So it can go either way, and still at this point in time no one can be sure 100% what will happen or be certain at either outselling PS2 or even coming short of PS4 lifetime sales (as I already said, the scenario of wii death for example would see switch struggling to reach 120M).
We may have a clearer picture after this or maybe even next year, cuz you may be very good one year and bad the other ..
See PS4. In 2018 it was very strong selling console, everyone here would bet that it will reach at least 130M, and many say even more.. like 140 or 150 at most.
But 2020 it became clear that the console will have hard time reaching even 120M.
Then almost anyone though for example that 2020 was the switch peak year .. and obviously it wasn't .. and even the few that though that 2021 is the peak year of switch were predicting 24-25M at most, but the switch went to 28M..
Again I am not making any statement about what the console will sell.. because I don't know.
Just saying that, as it can go to 150 or 160 in best case scenario, so can go and to below 120M lifetime in the worst case scenario.
There are example for both of the cases with consoles.
Also you example with PS2 is not right .. PS2 did sold close to 60M after next gen launched (xbox 360) however you can not compare home console sales after next gen home console came out, with hybrid (and more portable than home because most of the people get it because they want handheld not home console - nintendo official statement ) that is in the middle of it's life and is not competing with dedicated home consoles such as PS5 and XBSX.
Too many things to answer to, and thanks overall for a comprehensive answer to what I said.
Some things to take into consideration:
- It was obvious that the Wii craze wouldn't last long, mostly sold on the fact that it was the cheapest console of its time (249$ vs 399$ and 499$) and its motion gaming novelty (or let's call it a gimmick). The games were great, but it wasn't really about the games, and with the Slim iterations of both more powerful consoles releasing in 2010, the Wii lost its relevance on the market.
- The DS got 4 models, the second (Lite) model sold the most. It sold great, but after Nintendo playing all of their cards.
Now, for the Switch, I belive it will still sell as many as it did until now for the years to come based on:
- Nintendo didn't played all of its cards, we still have BOTW 2, Metroid Prime 4, Bayonetta 3 and at least 1 new Pokémon generation to come before even considering the end of the console's life
- I also believe cloud versions of AAA 3rd party titles will help the Switch remaining relevant with the next-gen (or current-gen now) games
- And the most obvious: I do believe a new Switch model is still yet to come (with a notable difference, not like the 2019 revision)