Global Hardware Jan 2-9 - Switch Best-Seller as PS5 and XS Stock Remains Low

[HigHurtenflurst]

SKMBlake said:

I belive the Switch will do what the PS2 did back in 2006, selling 55 more million after the launch of the following console generation.

As of March 31st 2021, the Switch will be probably at 82 million units shipped in the end of its 4th year. And we will see the Switch being the cheap alternative for upcoming games, as was the PS2 (which received a great amount of games post 2006). So in 2025, I can definitly see the Switch reach 155 million, reaching:
- 105 million by the end of 2021
- 127 million by the end of 2022
- 143 million by the end of 2023
- 155 million by the end of 2024
- 160 million by the end of 2025 or end of production.

One of the reasons for the PS2s long sales-tail was staggered launches. Sales were dying down in Japan & US by the time it launched in some South American or Middle Eastern countries iirc. (e.g. I think it launched officially in Brazil in 2009)

Today's launches are much more Worldwide, so to get a long sales-tail like the PS2 the Switch would need to enter new markets later in life, and I don't know how many viable markets there are left to create the kind of sales PS2 had.

That said your sales estimates would make a curve much more like DS sales anyway (high peak sales covering 2 years, then a fast drop) so the only odd thing is what you are considering the "launch of the following console generation" you say Switch will sell 55 million more after launch and your numbers detail 55 million after end of this year, so I guess you are expecting a Switch 2 to launch Q1 2022?

Last edited by HigHurtenflurst - on 24 January 2021