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Forums - Sales Discussion - Famitsu Sales: Week 51, 2020 (Dec 14 - Dec 20)

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heavenmercenary01 said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

I have to agree with you.  In Japan, Playstation really is doomed.

There's a proverb in our country that says:" dont sell the fur Before killing the Beast".

Assuming Sony is dead when knowing that they are at their own home where they have been getting full support from all third parties for generations, is pretty bold. They wont that support even if they sell 100 units per week. Look at all those exclusivities annonced by square on the ps5. 

Transition to the Nintendo side will take several years as ninty Lost credibility since the SNES unfortunatly.

They had full support with the PS4 and still declined what makes you think PS5 will be any different especially with how Sony are now approaching the region?



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Bofferbrauer2 said:
Wyrdness said:

Turkey (TurkishTürkiye [ˈtyɾcije]), officially the Republic of Turkey (Turkish: Türkiye Cumhuriyeti [ˈtyɾcije dÊ’umˈhuːɾijeti] (listen)), is a transcontinental country located mainly on the Anatolian Peninsula in Western Asia, with a smaller portion on the Balkan Peninsula in Southeastern Europe.

Russia is transcontinental as well with more of it in Asia but still grouped with Europe, Turkey is grouped with Europe hence why they're part of the EUCU and EEC.

But unlike Turkey, Russia has both the vast majority of their inhabitants and their capital in Europe. For Turkey, only 4% live on the European part and the capital Ankara is in Asia. This is why Russia is generally considered European but Turkey isn't.

Again Turkey engages with Europe when it come to economy and politics so like it or not it's in Europe until things change that is why the nation is allowed to engage in EU specific issues the capital (which countries can change anyway look at Nigeria) and population can be located on Mars for all we care it doesn't change this they're within the European region and chose that as their preferred identification.



Wyrdness said:
heavenmercenary01 said:

There's a proverb in our country that says:" dont sell the fur Before killing the Beast".

Assuming Sony is dead when knowing that they are at their own home where they have been getting full support from all third parties for generations, is pretty bold. They wont that support even if they sell 100 units per week. Look at all those exclusivities annonced by square on the ps5. 

Transition to the Nintendo side will take several years as ninty Lost credibility since the SNES unfortunatly.

They had full support with the PS4 and still declined what makes you think PS5 will be any different especially with how Sony are now approaching the region?

They are Indeed. As i Said look at square and their exclusivities and that's not going to change, or it might take some Time to change to nintendo's side. Anyways i dont see any third party dropping Sony anytime soon even if they had to change strategies and aiming for the west only.



heavenmercenary01 said:
Wyrdness said:

They had full support with the PS4 and still declined what makes you think PS5 will be any different especially with how Sony are now approaching the region?

They are Indeed. As i Said look at square and their exclusivities and that's not going to change, or it might take some Time to change to nintendo's side. Anyways i dont see any third party dropping Sony anytime soon even if they had to change strategies and aiming for the west only.

Square aren't the best example to use for Japanese devs as outside of DQ which is controlled by Horii anyway they've declined in Japan heavily this is highlighted in their flagship franchise FF the top 3 selling RPGs of the gen are Pokemon, DQ and Ringfit the first two aren't a surprise but the third is going to outsell both FFXV and VIIR combined, many smaller developers can't afford that because they don't have the western sales of SE to offset the decline to be able to survive this why many of them have found that they have to have Switch versions this isn't going to take time it's already happening now.

Switch could very possibly outsell PS4 and PS5 lt combined in fact if it hits 30m in the region it's possible you could add PS3 to that just take that in for a minute, right now Switch is only 2m off from outselling PS3 and PS4 combined many devs who don't have big western sales don't really have much of a choice.



Turkey and Russia are more Asian than European.



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PS5 will probably sell less than PS4 in Japan and almost certainly less than PS3, but saying they're "doomed" is a bit of an overstatement. 

They'll get by with the automatic AAA support they'll receive and maintain at least Vita levels of sales, they just won't be a competitive force the way they used to be.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 26 December 2020

Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

Wyrdness said:
heavenmercenary01 said:

There's a proverb in our country that says:" dont sell the fur Before killing the Beast".

Assuming Sony is dead when knowing that they are at their own home where they have been getting full support from all third parties for generations, is pretty bold. They wont that support even if they sell 100 units per week. Look at all those exclusivities annonced by square on the ps5. 

Transition to the Nintendo side will take several years as ninty Lost credibility since the SNES unfortunatly.

They had full support with the PS4 and still declined what makes you think PS5 will be any different especially with how Sony are now approaching the region?

Decline and doom are not the same lol

PS3 and PS4 have sold almost the same amount, that decline is not big. At most PS3 will gain a 10% lifetime advantage over the PS4. PS5 breaking sales records in the worlds biggest markets will ensure most Japanese games continue to priotise it as a platform since most Japanese games require western markets to make big bucks.

People are being way to hasty with writing PS5 off in Japan, comparing it to Wii U etc. It's year 1 line up is far more Japanese centric than PS4''s and it sales right now can't really be attributed to anything but sony undersupplying the region, as oppose to skipping it altogether like they did with PS4 during its holiday launch. Of course I think Switch will really put a roof on what PS5 can achieve, but at this moment in time, we don't know whether that roof is 9m LT or something much worse, like 5m



Otter said:
Wyrdness said:

They had full support with the PS4 and still declined what makes you think PS5 will be any different especially with how Sony are now approaching the region?

Decline and doom are not the same lol

PS3 and PS4 have sold almost the same amount, that decline is not big. At most PS3 will gain a 10% lifetime advantage over the PS4. PS5 breaking sales records in the worlds biggest markets will ensure most Japanese games continue to priotise it as a platform since most Japanese games require western markets to make big bucks.

People are being way to hasty with writing PS5 off in Japan, comparing it to Wii U etc. It's year 1 line up is far more Japanese centric than PS4''s and it sales right now can't really be attributed to anything but sony undersupplying the region, as oppose to skipping it altogether like they did with PS4 during its holiday launch. Of course I think Switch will really put a roof on what PS5 can achieve, but at this moment in time, we don't know whether that roof is 9m LT or something much worse, like 5m

Sony doesn't handle well against good competition. Historically, sony thrives when the competition screws up. Ps1 era Nintendo and Sega, pos-great console wars, make big mistakes. And Ps2 era Nintendo make big mistakes and Microsoft make a dumb Pc against the Ps2 behemoth. Ps3 and PSP fight against good consoles, the results we know. Psvita ( a better idea against Nintendo 3d free glass) doesn't win but has the fatal loss and Sony is out of the portable scene. Ps4 again sony has the luck Nintendo and Microsoft screw up. 

When you analyze the Japanese Market, you need to know it's not an isolated area. A good chunk of Far East Asia reverberates in the Japanese market. Ps3 and Ps4 have the same amount, but the support of a third party for Ps4 is bigger. Sony needs all third parties to survive. And not only the big ones, but the A and AA production line. When you have a small instal base, not a good home town sales, the thirds go crazy, likewise go with Ps4? I don't think so. 



PlayStation Ecosystem Q4 Historic lows

Top 10 Software PS4/PS5 Q4 2020:

  1. PS4: Call of Duty: Black Ops - Cold War(Sony) - 133.930
  2. PS4: Cyberpunk 2077(Spike Chunsoft) - 112.408
  3. PS4: Shin Megami Tensei III: Nocturne(Atlus) - 55.501
  4. PS4: Assassin's Creed: Valhalla(Ubisoft) - 55.445
  5. PS4: FIFA 21(Electronic Arts) - 51.884 
  6. PS4: eFootball Winning Eleven 2021(Konami) - 50.939
  7. PS4: Watch Dogs: Legion(Ubisoft) - 49.685
  8. PS4: Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin(Marvelous) - 48.019
  9. PS4: Atelier Ryza 2(Koei Tecmo) - 43.987
  10. PS4: Dragon Quest XI S(Square Enix) - 35.855

  00. PS5: Marvel's Spider-Man: Miles Morales(Sony) - 24.805

TOP 10 SOFTWARE Q4: 637.653

TOTAL SOFTWARE Q4: 937.211

With two left it's safe to say that PlayStation 4 and 5 Software won't be able to break 1 million during Q4 this year. 

TOTAL HARDWARE PS4 Q4: 56.088

TOTAL HARDWARE PS5 Q4: 241.962

TOTAL HARDWARE Q4: 298.050

It's also the first time that Hardware for the year will be well below 1 million since 1994. 

In terms of PS5's launch physical oftware is below going to end up below 100K while hardware is going to fall below 300K for the year. This is unlikely to change in Q1 as there is not really major software launches that would justify larger shipments of hardware. Overall the hardware will continue to lag behind the PS3 launch aligned. 

All Software PS3 2006 Q4:

  1. Ridge Racer 7(Bandai Namco) - 98.616
  2. Mobile Suit Gundam: Crossfire(Bandai Namco) - 96.714
  3. Resistance: Fall of Man(Sony) - 72.694
  4. Armored Core 4(From Software) - 48.521
  5. Genji: Days of the Blade(Sony) - 36.534
  6. MotorStorm(Sony) - 25.857
  7. Need for Speed: Carbon(Electronic Arts) - 18.994

PS3 SOFTWARE TOTAL: 397.930

PS3 HARDWARE TOTAL: 466.716 

Overall despite pretty low sales PS3 managed around x4 times software sales compared to the PS5 has achieved so far.

While hardware was also significantly higher.

All Software PS3 2007 Q1:

  1. Dynasty Warriors: Gundam(Bandai Namco) - 248.761
  2. Virtua Fighter 5(Sega) - 65.835
  3. Pro Baseball Spirit(Konami) - 18.584
  4. Enchanted Arms(From Software) - 14.417
  5. Virtua Tennis(Sega) - 11.503

PS3 SOFTWARE TOTAL: 359.100

PS3 HARDWARE TOTAL: 362.647

I don't think there is any game that would surpass 100K physical on the PlayStation 5 revealed thus far for Q1. Also I doubt that they would need to ship more than 200K hardware for Q1 2021. Overall PS3 was sluggish & it seems PS5 will have an even more difficult time. 

In the past even when stationary hardware like PS3 or PS4 struggled Legacy consoles and portables  were picking up some of the slack in terms of both Hardware and Software, Sony don't have the same luxury right now. 

PSP HARDWARE Q1 2007: 672.823 

PS2 HARDWARE Q1 2007: 253.999

PSV HARDWARE Q1 2014: 398.494

PS3 HARDWARE Q1 2014: 198.030

Overall 2021 will be a very tough year for Sony in Japan. The main thing they could do to maintain their market share  is to drop the price of the PS4 and do their best to at least stop their decline. The second would be to hope that an Exclusive PS4 or PS5 game rekindles interest in the ecosystem similarly to how Splatoon was able to help Wii U's sales in 2015. 



deerox said:

The Neptunia PS5 game that came out this week didn't chart at all.

Was it even in the Top 30 ? I only saw Cyberpunk which could mean that it didn't even manage 5K copies sold physically .... big oof if true.



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