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Forums - Sales Discussion - Famitsu Sales: Week 51, 2020 (Dec 14 - Dec 20)

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Otter said:

Decline and doom are not the same lol

PS3 and PS4 have sold almost the same amount, that decline is not big. At most PS3 will gain a 10% lifetime advantage over the PS4. PS5 breaking sales records in the worlds biggest markets will ensure most Japanese games continue to priotise it as a platform since most Japanese games require western markets to make big bucks.

People are being way to hasty with writing PS5 off in Japan, comparing it to Wii U etc. It's year 1 line up is far more Japanese centric than PS4''s and it sales right now can't really be attributed to anything but sony undersupplying the region, as oppose to skipping it altogether like they did with PS4 during its holiday launch. Of course I think Switch will really put a roof on what PS5 can achieve, but at this moment in time, we don't know whether that roof is 9m LT or something much worse, like 5m

You're taking the doomed comment someone made too literally PS4 declined with better support it got all of the major third party titles in Japan from DQ, MH, FF etc... the shouldn't be a decline at all the fact that it decline highlights the is a serious issue in the region for them this was a brand that moved 20m units in the region at one point and no most Japanese games require a good market at home to be secure as the west is only kind to a select group of Japanese developers look at Disgaea 6 for reference they've dropped PS4 entirely in the west despite it having the largest userbase at the moment.

People writing off the PS5 in the region is understandable because right now if the likes of MH and DQ can't stop the decline what can Sony realistically pull out? When Nintendo were in trouble they sent out Splatoon which carried the WiiU in Japan while Sony's offering tend to be more appealing to western gamers and it's clear now it's a problem only Sony themselves can sort out and so far they haven't shown much in the way of dealing with it. PS5's first test comes in three months when MHR lands on Switch and at this point we know full well DQXII will be on Switch at this point with a non Switch version being up in the air right now



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noshten said:

PlayStation Ecosystem Q4 Historic lows

Top 10 Software PS4/PS5 Q4 2020:

  1. PS4: Call of Duty: Black Ops - Cold War(Sony) - 133.930
  2. PS4: Cyberpunk 2077(Spike Chunsoft) - 112.408
  3. PS4: Shin Megami Tensei III: Nocturne(Atlus) - 55.501
  4. PS4: Assassin's Creed: Valhalla(Ubisoft) - 55.445
  5. PS4: FIFA 21(Electronic Arts) - 51.884 
  6. PS4: eFootball Winning Eleven 2021(Konami) - 50.939
  7. PS4: Watch Dogs: Legion(Ubisoft) - 49.685
  8. PS4: Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin(Marvelous) - 48.019
  9. PS4: Atelier Ryza 2(Koei Tecmo) - 43.987
  10. PS4: Dragon Quest XI S(Square Enix) - 35.855

  00. PS5: Marvel's Spider-Man: Miles Morales(Sony) - 24.805

TOP 10 SOFTWARE Q4: 637.653

TOTAL SOFTWARE Q4: 937.211

With two left it's safe to say that PlayStation 4 and 5 Software won't be able to break 1 million during Q4 this year. 

TOTAL HARDWARE PS4 Q4: 56.088

TOTAL HARDWARE PS5 Q4: 241.962

TOTAL HARDWARE Q4: 298.050

It's also the first time that Hardware for the year will be well below 1 million since 1994. 

In terms of PS5's launch physical oftware is below going to end up below 100K while hardware is going to fall below 300K for the year. This is unlikely to change in Q1 as there is not really major software launches that would justify larger shipments of hardware. Overall the hardware will continue to lag behind the PS3 launch aligned. 

All Software PS3 2006 Q4:

  1. Ridge Racer 7(Bandai Namco) - 98.616
  2. Mobile Suit Gundam: Crossfire(Bandai Namco) - 96.714
  3. Resistance: Fall of Man(Sony) - 72.694
  4. Armored Core 4(From Software) - 48.521
  5. Genji: Days of the Blade(Sony) - 36.534
  6. MotorStorm(Sony) - 25.857
  7. Need for Speed: Carbon(Electronic Arts) - 18.994

PS3 SOFTWARE TOTAL: 397.930

PS3 HARDWARE TOTAL: 466.716 

Overall despite pretty low sales PS3 managed around x4 times software sales compared to the PS5 has achieved so far.

While hardware was also significantly higher.

All Software PS3 2007 Q1:

  1. Dynasty Warriors: Gundam(Bandai Namco) - 248.761
  2. Virtua Fighter 5(Sega) - 65.835
  3. Pro Baseball Spirit(Konami) - 18.584
  4. Enchanted Arms(From Software) - 14.417
  5. Virtua Tennis(Sega) - 11.503

PS3 SOFTWARE TOTAL: 359.100

PS3 HARDWARE TOTAL: 362.647

I don't think there is any game that would surpass 100K physical on the PlayStation 5 revealed thus far for Q1. Also I doubt that they would need to ship more than 200K hardware for Q1 2021. Overall PS3 was sluggish & it seems PS5 will have an even more difficult time. 

In the past even when stationary hardware like PS3 or PS4 struggled Legacy consoles and portables  were picking up some of the slack in terms of both Hardware and Software, Sony don't have the same luxury right now. 

PSP HARDWARE Q1 2007: 672.823 

PS2 HARDWARE Q1 2007: 253.999

PSV HARDWARE Q1 2014: 398.494

PS3 HARDWARE Q1 2014: 198.030

Overall 2021 will be a very tough year for Sony in Japan. The main thing they could do to maintain their market share  is to drop the price of the PS4 and do their best to at least stop their decline. The second would be to hope that an Exclusive PS4 or PS5 game rekindles interest in the ecosystem similarly to how Splatoon was able to help Wii U's sales in 2015. 

yeah, one game makes a difference. Monster Hunter on PSP is a good example. 



Splatoon couldn't carry the Wii U alone, it helped the baseline for 6 months. You need 2-3 games like that per year to turn things around for something like the Wii U or PS5. Nintendo were in a better position to consolidate their handheld and console line-up to a single device, while Sony didn't really have a handheld lineup to consolidate to the PS4/PS5. Outside of a few games PSV didn't have as many 1st Party games as the Wii U, that never realized their potential. 

For the PS5 it's price, size and lineup for the next 12 months is what makes it unattractive to the audience in Japan. It really is understandable to write it off, even when stock arrives - how many weeks do you realistically it takes before sales return to 10K baseline? Without games that appeal to the the market - the writing is on the wall.

Sure there is going to be a a dozen games in development by Japanese 3rd Parties for the PS5, but if they are supposed to achieve over 50% of their sales in Asia - you gotta wonder how much would having them be exclusive to the PS5 would cost you long term. Not just for the Japanese market but also South Korea, Taiwan, China, Singapore, soon Thailand etc. PS5 isn't going to be easy to purchase in some part of Asia until 2022. Without a PC version at the very least any exclusive is risky for Japanese 3rd Parties. 

The next two years will have long term impacts on future projects and what projects get green-lighted - lets say that the next AAA Square launches fails to meet their expectations, this immediately impacts their planning going forward. In such huge companies a giant game like Avengers bombing impacts a lot of future plans, two games like this under performing and you are doing a 180 on your entire strategy. Also no 3rd Party in Japan can really ignore the opportunities Asia provides for growth and most of east Asia is following a similar path to Japan. Last year Switch made up 70% of hardware sales in South Korea & Taiwan slightly behind the result of Japan where Switch had 75% market share.

We know that Other grew by 150% in the past quarter, a lot of that was driven by China, South Korea & Thailand and these countries were specifically mentioned by Furukawa in their last QA. I imagine holiday Quarter will enjoy similar growth, especially knowing that Ring Fit continues to get abundant stock to these three countries. After all this is new, as the Wii really didn't become all that popular in Asia and even in Japan it was only slightly more successful than the PS3.

Looking at growth in regional sales compared to the same period of the previous fiscal year, we see that whereas sales grew by 67% in Japan, 61% in the Americas and 72% in Europe, sales for the "other" region grew by a huge 152%.
We hear from Tencent that, in mainland China, Ring Fit Adventure got off to a great start when it was released by them on September 3 and it continues to sell well. In some cases, Ring Fit Adventure is driving sales of the Nintendo Switch hardware.

Sales in the Asia region excluding Japan were 6.7 times higher in the fiscal year ended March 2020 compared to the year ended March 2017, when Nintendo Switch was launched. At the time of the Nintendo Switch launch, it was only available in the "other" regions of Hong Kong, Singapore and parts of the Middle East. Since then, the sales regions have broadened to include South Korea, Taiwan, mainland China (sales by Tencent) and other parts of Southeast Asia. In looking at how our sales in the Asia region have grown to be a larger part of our business, we are now able to release many Nintendo titles at the same time they debut in the major markets of Japan, the U.S. and Europe, as we have been trying to more efficiently localize our software with more languages in accordance with the increasing sales in regions such as South Korea and Taiwan. 

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2020/201106e.pdf

Ring Fit continues to be #1 physical game in South Korea & Taiwan, with New Horizon usually coming right behind it. 

Nintendo is also continuing to enter new markets, as Thailand is seemingly the next market to gain an official launch following Brazil earlier in the year. This accelerates the situation in Japan since 3rd Parties now see two potential areas for growth, while limiting the risks. Sakuna, Momotaro, eBaseball, Bravely Default 2, Monster Hunter Rise, Olive Town, SMT V, Rune Factory 5 are no-brainers and present little risk to the companies making them, while a game of the scope of FFXVI is at risk precisely because of it's budget and the fact that it needs to compete on very expensive media markets like NA & Europe for mind-share. 

Sony would basically need to reveal real megatons for the next 12 months to turn things around.

Last edited by noshten - on 28 December 2020

Wyrdness said:
Otter said:

Decline and doom are not the same lol

PS3 and PS4 have sold almost the same amount, that decline is not big. At most PS3 will gain a 10% lifetime advantage over the PS4. PS5 breaking sales records in the worlds biggest markets will ensure most Japanese games continue to priotise it as a platform since most Japanese games require western markets to make big bucks.

People are being way to hasty with writing PS5 off in Japan, comparing it to Wii U etc. It's year 1 line up is far more Japanese centric than PS4''s and it sales right now can't really be attributed to anything but sony undersupplying the region, as oppose to skipping it altogether like they did with PS4 during its holiday launch. Of course I think Switch will really put a roof on what PS5 can achieve, but at this moment in time, we don't know whether that roof is 9m LT or something much worse, like 5m

You're taking the doomed comment someone made too literally PS4 declined with better support it got all of the major third party titles in Japan from DQ, MH, FF etc... the shouldn't be a decline at all the fact that it decline highlights the is a serious issue in the region for them this was a brand that moved 20m units in the region at one point and no most Japanese games require a good market at home to be secure as the west is only kind to a select group of Japanese developers look at Disgaea 6 for reference they've dropped PS4 entirely in the west despite it having the largest userbase at the moment.

People writing off the PS5 in the region is understandable because right now if the likes of MH and DQ can't stop the decline what can Sony realistically pull out? When Nintendo were in trouble they sent out Splatoon which carried the WiiU in Japan while Sony's offering tend to be more appealing to western gamers and it's clear now it's a problem only Sony themselves can sort out and so far they haven't shown much in the way of dealing with it. PS5's first test comes in three months when MHR lands on Switch and at this point we know full well DQXII will be on Switch at this point with a non Switch version being up in the air right now

But still you're conflating decline with doom or some equivalent. If not, why does a decline equate to a write off? Was the 3DS a write off because it didn't perform to DS numbers? Through looking at the last 2 generations of playstation hardware, we can see the general ballpark Sony are working within (ps3 10m, PS4- 9m). Even the best selling dedicated home console of the last 2 generations (wii) only did 12m in Japan, so looking as far back as playstation1 to draw up expectations for PS5 doesn't make any sense. My reference point was people comparing PS5 to Wii U (3m) based off current supply constraint sales, it all just seems way to hasty and dramatic. 






noshten said:

You need 2-3 games like that per year to turn things around for something like the Wii U or

What would PS5 have sold this week if not for supply constraints? Direct comparisons to Wii U just don't make any sense until shipments/demand start leveling out. All of this is centered on the idea that PS5's current sales are reflective of demand and thus its in a Wii U dire situation.

Also the PS4 did not have any games to appeal to the Japanese market for a long time, arguably its first truly big title was not til FFXV which came almost 3 years after the system launched in Japan. PS5 will get off to a much better start having Resident Evil 8 and GT7 in the next handful of months and potentially FFXVI in the second half of the year. Although western games represent a niche market, the sales pull of titles like God of War/COD/Horizon etc are still respectable (100k+ opennings) and these western blockbusters are bigger in japan now and will be abundant on PS5 in a way they were not in the early life of PS4. 

Games already in development for PS5 will not just be able to Switch to Switch , equally their appeal in the west often is often dependent on spectacle/scale that Switch makes difficult to achieve (hence no MHW port). So like for like, PS5 is in a better software situation than PS4 was in the same period. We just have to wait to see whether the market (Japan) responds to it or whether PS4's audience has all moved on  or is unwilling to upgrade.



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Otter said:

But still you're conflating decline with doom or some equivalent. If not, why does a decline equate to a write off? Was the 3DS a write off because it didn't perform to DS numbers? Through looking at the last 2 generations of playstation hardware, we can see the general ballpark Sony are working within (ps3 10m, PS4- 9m). Even the best selling dedicated home console of the last 2 generations (wii) only did 12m in Japan, so looking as far back as playstation1 to draw up expectations for PS5 doesn't make any sense. My reference point was people comparing PS5 to Wii U (3m) based off current supply constraint sales, it all just seems way to hasty and dramatic. 




3DS is the third best selling platform in Japan's history so where as it didn't outperform the DS it out performed all other platforms before it with the exception of the GB which means it remains consistent in not only performing in the market but also retaining the position of market leader the problem with your argument is you're arguing comparisons can't be made because of market changes where as everyone is accounting for market changes in their outlook for PS5's possible performance. Nintendo made a move to tackle the problem with a hybrid form factor as a result they're heading for a possible LT range of 30m Sony have so far made no move neither hardware or software wise that really looks to address the issue.

On the WiiU comparison people compared platforms performances in their launch windows so when PS5 moves less than what WiiU did in the same time period obviously it's going to be a talking point, the whole point of the tongue in cheek doom comment someone made was the approach from Sony so far combined with a strong competitor steamrolling the region by a large margin at that is a position the brand has never dealt with before as even with the Wii and DS Sony at least were at the starting line with the competing platform while here the competitor is already well out the gates with multiple options still available to them to compete.

Last edited by Wyrdness - on 28 December 2020

The PS brand's decline in Japan goes beyond just PS3 to PS4. PS3 was itself already a decline from PS2, and Vita declined steeply from PSP. It's a broader and longer term trend than just two systems.

To turn this around, PS5 would need to have something that PS4 doesn't, but PS4 already had mainline Monster Hunter, Final Fantasy, Dragon Quest, Resident Evil, basically every major Japanese franchise from third parties. What other killer apps are there for Japan?



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

curl-6 said:

The PS brand's decline in Japan goes beyond just PS3 to PS4. PS3 was itself already a decline from PS2, and Vita declined steeply from PSP. It's a broader and longer term trend than just two systems.

To turn this around, PS5 would need to have something that PS4 doesn't, but PS4 already had mainline Monster Hunter, Final Fantasy, Dragon Quest, Resident Evil, basically every major Japanese franchise from third parties. What other killer apps are there for Japan?

Indeed. If the PS5 sold ~8m (example for argument's sake), then that wouldn't just be a small decline gen over gen, rather it would fall far short of last gen's ~15.5m PS consoles sold (9.5m PS4s, 6m Vitas).

The Vita is often brushed aside because Sony was globally successful with the PS4, but in Japan it served as an important block in the road to more third party support for Nintendo. It was only a few years ago that many smaller Japanese third party publishers didn't have much to offer for Nintendo consoles, but Sony's exit from the handheld market has had a major impact that will continue to show over the next few years.

This gen PS has less going for it than it had last gen. It won't get as bad as people routinely buying a PS5 only to play through one game before selling it to a second hand shop within weeks (which was the fate of the Xbox 360's JRPG offensive), but the PS5 will certainly have a much harder time to recover from its inevitable sub-10k baseline than the PS4 had.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

basically the switch was a move to check sony into a impossible situation in japan, I have a feeling sony was going to make another portable if only for japan untill the switch came out.

the switch's existance means that any potential vita sucessor would either be only comperable or lesser in power to the switch, or it would cannabalize ps5 sales/ price point.



TheBraveGallade said:

basically the switch was a move to check sony into a impossible situation in japan, I have a feeling sony was going to make another portable if only for japan untill the switch came out.

the switch's existance means that any potential vita sucessor would either be only comperable or lesser in power to the switch, or it would cannabalize ps5 sales/ price point.

go market up again. First, take the vita/psp pipeline.