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curl-6 on 29 December 2020
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Otter said:
curl-6 said:

The PS brand's decline in Japan goes beyond just PS3 to PS4. PS3 was itself already a decline from PS2, and Vita declined steeply from PSP. It's a broader and longer term trend than just two systems.

To turn this around, PS5 would need to have something that PS4 doesn't, but PS4 already had mainline Monster Hunter, Final Fantasy, Dragon Quest, Resident Evil, basically every major Japanese franchise from third parties. What other killer apps are there for Japan?

The decline from PS3 to PS4 ( less than 10%) is worlds apart from the decline from PS2 to PS3 ( more than 100%). I don't think anyone (not even sony) is expecting to turn things around, but more consolidate their audience and move towards a natural plateau where they maintain a core market presence. Commercially it just doesn't make sense for Sony to shape hardware around the Japanese market alone when they're now globally making more money then ever through doing the opposite. What they do have compared to PS4 is a more compelling software line up. 

Whereas the PS4 didn't get its killer apps until midway through its life (late 2016/2017) PS5 will get many of its own in the first 18months, I don't think that something to be taken from granted but for sure will need a wait and see what impact these titles actually have and whether they can shift hardware.

Bofferbrauer beat me to it, but given PS4 is looking to outsell PS3 by over 30 million globally, selling less in Sony's home country isn't a good outcome. And as Mnementh points out, a lot of Japan's medium sized third party software that used to be exclusive to the PS ecosystem is moving away from this as it's becoming less and less viable to only sell on PS in a market that is increasingly dominated by the Switch. And a lot of Asia seems to have similar tastes to Japan.

There will still be a place for PS5, but it will be interesting to see where the plateau you mention will sit in the end, if PS5 continues the decline seen since PS2.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 29 December 2020