Square aren't the best example to use for Japanese devs as outside of DQ which is controlled by Horii anyway they've declined in Japan heavily this is highlighted in their flagship franchise FF the top 3 selling RPGs of the gen are Pokemon, DQ and Ringfit the first two aren't a surprise but the third is going to outsell both FFXV and VIIR combined, many smaller developers can't afford that because they don't have the western sales of SE to offset the decline to be able to survive this why many of them have found that they have to have Switch versions this isn't going to take time it's already happening now.

Switch could very possibly outsell PS4 and PS5 lt combined in fact if it hits 30m in the region it's possible you could add PS3 to that just take that in for a minute, right now Switch is only 2m off from outselling PS3 and PS4 combined many devs who don't have big western sales don't really have much of a choice.

Turkey and Russia are more Asian than European.

PS5 will probably sell less than PS4 in Japan and almost certainly less than PS3, but saying they're "doomed" is a bit of an overstatement. 

They'll get by with the automatic AAA support they'll receive and maintain at least Vita levels of sales, they just won't be a competitive force the way they used to be.

Decline and doom are not the same lol

PS3 and PS4 have sold almost the same amount, that decline is not big. At most PS3 will gain a 10% lifetime advantage over the PS4. PS5 breaking sales records in the worlds biggest markets will ensure most Japanese games continue to priotise it as a platform since most Japanese games require western markets to make big bucks.

People are being way to hasty with writing PS5 off in Japan, comparing it to Wii U etc. It's year 1 line up is far more Japanese centric than PS4''s and it sales right now can't really be attributed to anything but sony undersupplying the region, as oppose to skipping it altogether like they did with PS4 during its holiday launch. Of course I think Switch will really put a roof on what PS5 can achieve, but at this moment in time, we don't know whether that roof is 9m LT or something much worse, like 5m

Sony doesn't handle well against good competition. Historically, sony thrives when the competition screws up. Ps1 era Nintendo and Sega, pos-great console wars, make big mistakes. And Ps2 era Nintendo make big mistakes and Microsoft make a dumb Pc against the Ps2 behemoth. Ps3 and PSP fight against good consoles, the results we know. Psvita ( a better idea against Nintendo 3d free glass) doesn't win but has the fatal loss and Sony is out of the portable scene. Ps4 again sony has the luck Nintendo and Microsoft screw up. 

When you analyze the Japanese Market, you need to know it's not an isolated area. A good chunk of Far East Asia reverberates in the Japanese market. Ps3 and Ps4 have the same amount, but the support of a third party for Ps4 is bigger. Sony needs all third parties to survive. And not only the big ones, but the A and AA production line. When you have a small instal base, not a good home town sales, the thirds go crazy, likewise go with Ps4? I don't think so. 

PlayStation Ecosystem Q4 Historic lows

Top 10 Software PS4/PS5 Q4 2020:

1. PS4: Call of Duty: Black Ops - Cold War(Sony) - 133.930
2. PS4: Cyberpunk 2077(Spike Chunsoft) - 112.408
3. PS4: Shin Megami Tensei III: Nocturne(Atlus) - 55.501
4. PS4: Assassin's Creed: Valhalla(Ubisoft) - 55.445
5. PS4: FIFA 21(Electronic Arts) - 51.884 
6. PS4: eFootball Winning Eleven 2021(Konami) - 50.939
7. PS4: Watch Dogs: Legion(Ubisoft) - 49.685
8. PS4: Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin(Marvelous) - 48.019
9. PS4: Atelier Ryza 2(Koei Tecmo) - 43.987
10. PS4: Dragon Quest XI S(Square Enix) - 35.855

  00. PS5: Marvel's Spider-Man: Miles Morales(Sony) - 24.805

TOP 10 SOFTWARE Q4: 637.653

TOTAL SOFTWARE Q4: 937.211

With two left it's safe to say that PlayStation 4 and 5 Software won't be able to break 1 million during Q4 this year. 

TOTAL HARDWARE PS4 Q4: 56.088

TOTAL HARDWARE PS5 Q4: 241.962

TOTAL HARDWARE Q4: 298.050

It's also the first time that Hardware for the year will be well below 1 million since 1994. 

In terms of PS5's launch physical oftware is below going to end up below 100K while hardware is going to fall below 300K for the year. This is unlikely to change in Q1 as there is not really major software launches that would justify larger shipments of hardware. Overall the hardware will continue to lag behind the PS3 launch aligned. 

All Software PS3 2006 Q4:

1. Ridge Racer 7(Bandai Namco) - 98.616
2. Mobile Suit Gundam: Crossfire(Bandai Namco) - 96.714
3. Resistance: Fall of Man(Sony) - 72.694
4. Armored Core 4(From Software) - 48.521
5. Genji: Days of the Blade(Sony) - 36.534
6. MotorStorm(Sony) - 25.857
7. Need for Speed: Carbon(Electronic Arts) - 18.994

PS3 SOFTWARE TOTAL: 397.930

PS3 HARDWARE TOTAL: 466.716 

Overall despite pretty low sales PS3 managed around x4 times software sales compared to the PS5 has achieved so far.

While hardware was also significantly higher.

All Software PS3 2007 Q1:

1. Dynasty Warriors: Gundam(Bandai Namco) - 248.761
2. Virtua Fighter 5(Sega) - 65.835
3. Pro Baseball Spirit(Konami) - 18.584
4. Enchanted Arms(From Software) - 14.417
5. Virtua Tennis(Sega) - 11.503

PS3 SOFTWARE TOTAL: 359.100

PS3 HARDWARE TOTAL: 362.647

I don't think there is any game that would surpass 100K physical on the PlayStation 5 revealed thus far for Q1. Also I doubt that they would need to ship more than 200K hardware for Q1 2021. Overall PS3 was sluggish & it seems PS5 will have an even more difficult time. 

In the past even when stationary hardware like PS3 or PS4 struggled Legacy consoles and portables  were picking up some of the slack in terms of both Hardware and Software, Sony don't have the same luxury right now. 

PSP HARDWARE Q1 2007: 672.823 

PS2 HARDWARE Q1 2007: 253.999

PSV HARDWARE Q1 2014: 398.494

PS3 HARDWARE Q1 2014: 198.030

Overall 2021 will be a very tough year for Sony in Japan. The main thing they could do to maintain their market share  is to drop the price of the PS4 and do their best to at least stop their decline. The second would be to hope that an Exclusive PS4 or PS5 game rekindles interest in the ecosystem similarly to how Splatoon was able to help Wii U's sales in 2015. 

You're taking the doomed comment someone made too literally PS4 declined with better support it got all of the major third party titles in Japan from DQ, MH, FF etc... the shouldn't be a decline at all the fact that it decline highlights the is a serious issue in the region for them this was a brand that moved 20m units in the region at one point and no most Japanese games require a good market at home to be secure as the west is only kind to a select group of Japanese developers look at Disgaea 6 for reference they've dropped PS4 entirely in the west despite it having the largest userbase at the moment.

People writing off the PS5 in the region is understandable because right now if the likes of MH and DQ can't stop the decline what can Sony realistically pull out? When Nintendo were in trouble they sent out Splatoon which carried the WiiU in Japan while Sony's offering tend to be more appealing to western gamers and it's clear now it's a problem only Sony themselves can sort out and so far they haven't shown much in the way of dealing with it. PS5's first test comes in three months when MHR lands on Switch and at this point we know full well DQXII will be on Switch at this point with a non Switch version being up in the air right now

yeah, one game makes a difference. Monster Hunter on PSP is a good example. 

Splatoon couldn't carry the Wii U alone, it helped the baseline for 6 months. You need 2-3 games like that per year to turn things around for something like the Wii U or PS5. Nintendo were in a better position to consolidate their handheld and console line-up to a single device, while Sony didn't really have a handheld lineup to consolidate to the PS4/PS5. Outside of a few games PSV didn't have as many 1st Party games as the Wii U, that never realized their potential. 

For the PS5 it's price, size and lineup for the next 12 months is what makes it unattractive to the audience in Japan. It really is understandable to write it off, even when stock arrives - how many weeks do you realistically it takes before sales return to 10K baseline? Without games that appeal to the the market - the writing is on the wall.

Sure there is going to be a a dozen games in development by Japanese 3rd Parties for the PS5, but if they are supposed to achieve over 50% of their sales in Asia - you gotta wonder how much would having them be exclusive to the PS5 would cost you long term. Not just for the Japanese market but also South Korea, Taiwan, China, Singapore, soon Thailand etc. PS5 isn't going to be easy to purchase in some part of Asia until 2022. Without a PC version at the very least any exclusive is risky for Japanese 3rd Parties. 

The next two years will have long term impacts on future projects and what projects get green-lighted - lets say that the next AAA Square launches fails to meet their expectations, this immediately impacts their planning going forward. In such huge companies a giant game like Avengers bombing impacts a lot of future plans, two games like this under performing and you are doing a 180 on your entire strategy. Also no 3rd Party in Japan can really ignore the opportunities Asia provides for growth and most of east Asia is following a similar path to Japan. Last year Switch made up 70% of hardware sales in South Korea & Taiwan slightly behind the result of Japan where Switch had 75% market share.

We know that Other grew by 150% in the past quarter, a lot of that was driven by China, South Korea & Thailand and these countries were specifically mentioned by Furukawa in their last QA. I imagine holiday Quarter will enjoy similar growth, especially knowing that Ring Fit continues to get abundant stock to these three countries. After all this is new, as the Wii really didn't become all that popular in Asia and even in Japan it was only slightly more successful than the PS3.

Looking at growth in regional sales compared to the same period of the previous fiscal year, we see that whereas sales grew by 67% in Japan, 61% in the Americas and 72% in Europe, sales for the "other" region grew by a huge 152%.
We hear from Tencent that, in mainland China, Ring Fit Adventure got off to a great start when it was released by them on September 3 and it continues to sell well. In some cases, Ring Fit Adventure is driving sales of the Nintendo Switch hardware.

Sales in the Asia region excluding Japan were 6.7 times higher in the fiscal year ended March 2020 compared to the year ended March 2017, when Nintendo Switch was launched. At the time of the Nintendo Switch launch, it was only available in the "other" regions of Hong Kong, Singapore and parts of the Middle East. Since then, the sales regions have broadened to include South Korea, Taiwan, mainland China (sales by Tencent) and other parts of Southeast Asia. In looking at how our sales in the Asia region have grown to be a larger part of our business, we are now able to release many Nintendo titles at the same time they debut in the major markets of Japan, the U.S. and Europe, as we have been trying to more efficiently localize our software with more languages in accordance with the increasing sales in regions such as South Korea and Taiwan. 

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2020/201106e.pdf

Ring Fit continues to be #1 physical game in South Korea & Taiwan, with New Horizon usually coming right behind it. 

Nintendo is also continuing to enter new markets, as Thailand is seemingly the next market to gain an official launch following Brazil earlier in the year. This accelerates the situation in Japan since 3rd Parties now see two potential areas for growth, while limiting the risks. Sakuna, Momotaro, eBaseball, Bravely Default 2, Monster Hunter Rise, Olive Town, SMT V, Rune Factory 5 are no-brainers and present little risk to the companies making them, while a game of the scope of FFXVI is at risk precisely because of it's budget and the fact that it needs to compete on very expensive media markets like NA & Europe for mind-share. 

Sony would basically need to reveal real megatons for the next 12 months to turn things around.

But still you're conflating decline with doom or some equivalent. If not, why does a decline equate to a write off? Was the 3DS a write off because it didn't perform to DS numbers? Through looking at the last 2 generations of playstation hardware, we can see the general ballpark Sony are working within (ps3 10m, PS4- 9m). Even the best selling dedicated home console of the last 2 generations (wii) only did 12m in Japan, so looking as far back as playstation1 to draw up expectations for PS5 doesn't make any sense. My reference point was people comparing PS5 to Wii U (3m) based off current supply constraint sales, it all just seems way to hasty and dramatic.