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noshten on 28 December 2020
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PlayStation Ecosystem Q4 Historic lows

Top 10 Software PS4/PS5 Q4 2020:

  1. PS4: Call of Duty: Black Ops - Cold War(Sony) - 133.930
  2. PS4: Cyberpunk 2077(Spike Chunsoft) - 112.408
  3. PS4: Shin Megami Tensei III: Nocturne(Atlus) - 55.501
  4. PS4: Assassin's Creed: Valhalla(Ubisoft) - 55.445
  5. PS4: FIFA 21(Electronic Arts) - 51.884 
  6. PS4: eFootball Winning Eleven 2021(Konami) - 50.939
  7. PS4: Watch Dogs: Legion(Ubisoft) - 49.685
  8. PS4: Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin(Marvelous) - 48.019
  9. PS4: Atelier Ryza 2(Koei Tecmo) - 43.987
  10. PS4: Dragon Quest XI S(Square Enix) - 35.855

  00. PS5: Marvel's Spider-Man: Miles Morales(Sony) - 24.805

TOP 10 SOFTWARE Q4: 637.653

TOTAL SOFTWARE Q4: 937.211

With two left it's safe to say that PlayStation 4 and 5 Software won't be able to break 1 million during Q4 this year. 

TOTAL HARDWARE PS4 Q4: 56.088

TOTAL HARDWARE PS5 Q4: 241.962

TOTAL HARDWARE Q4: 298.050

It's also the first time that Hardware for the year will be well below 1 million since 1994. 

In terms of PS5's launch physical oftware is below going to end up below 100K while hardware is going to fall below 300K for the year. This is unlikely to change in Q1 as there is not really major software launches that would justify larger shipments of hardware. Overall the hardware will continue to lag behind the PS3 launch aligned. 

All Software PS3 2006 Q4:

  1. Ridge Racer 7(Bandai Namco) - 98.616
  2. Mobile Suit Gundam: Crossfire(Bandai Namco) - 96.714
  3. Resistance: Fall of Man(Sony) - 72.694
  4. Armored Core 4(From Software) - 48.521
  5. Genji: Days of the Blade(Sony) - 36.534
  6. MotorStorm(Sony) - 25.857
  7. Need for Speed: Carbon(Electronic Arts) - 18.994

PS3 SOFTWARE TOTAL: 397.930

PS3 HARDWARE TOTAL: 466.716 

Overall despite pretty low sales PS3 managed around x4 times software sales compared to the PS5 has achieved so far.

While hardware was also significantly higher.

All Software PS3 2007 Q1:

  1. Dynasty Warriors: Gundam(Bandai Namco) - 248.761
  2. Virtua Fighter 5(Sega) - 65.835
  3. Pro Baseball Spirit(Konami) - 18.584
  4. Enchanted Arms(From Software) - 14.417
  5. Virtua Tennis(Sega) - 11.503

PS3 SOFTWARE TOTAL: 359.100

PS3 HARDWARE TOTAL: 362.647

I don't think there is any game that would surpass 100K physical on the PlayStation 5 revealed thus far for Q1. Also I doubt that they would need to ship more than 200K hardware for Q1 2021. Overall PS3 was sluggish & it seems PS5 will have an even more difficult time. 

In the past even when stationary hardware like PS3 or PS4 struggled Legacy consoles and portables  were picking up some of the slack in terms of both Hardware and Software, Sony don't have the same luxury right now. 

PSP HARDWARE Q1 2007: 672.823 

PS2 HARDWARE Q1 2007: 253.999

PSV HARDWARE Q1 2014: 398.494

PS3 HARDWARE Q1 2014: 198.030

Overall 2021 will be a very tough year for Sony in Japan. The main thing they could do to maintain their market share  is to drop the price of the PS4 and do their best to at least stop their decline. The second would be to hope that an Exclusive PS4 or PS5 game rekindles interest in the ecosystem similarly to how Splatoon was able to help Wii U's sales in 2015.