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noshten on 03 January 2021
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Top 30 3rd Party Games(3DS/PS3/PSV/PS4/NSW):

  1. [2013/3DS] Monster Hunter 4 (Capcom) - 3.591.334
  2. [2014/3DS] Yo-kai Watch 2 (Level 5) - 3.169.858
  3. [2015/3DS] Monster Hunter Generations (Capcom) - 2.832.833
  4. [2014/3DS] Yo-kai Watch 2: Psychic Specters (Level 5) - 2.632.550
  5. [2014/3DS] Monster Hunter 4 Ultimate (Capcom) - 2.617.803
  6. [2018/PS4] Monster Hunter: World (Capcom) - 2.564.928
  7. [2015/3DS] Yo-Kai Watch Busters (Level 5) - 2.167.915
  8. [2009/PS3] Final Fantasy XIII (Square Enix) - 1.967.887
  9. [2011/3DS] Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate (Capcom) - 1.941.106
  10. [2017/3DS] Dragon Quest XI (Square Enix) - 1.772.911
  11. [2017/3DS] Monster Hunter XX (Capcom) - 1.718.052
  12. [2018/NSW] Minecraft (Microsoft) - 1.700.000+
  13. [2020/NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu (Konami) - 1.500.000+
  14. [2016/3DS] Yo-Kai Watch 3 (Level 5) - 1.495.891
  15. [2013/3DS] Puzzle & Dragons Z (GungHo) - 1.470.222
  16. [2017/PS4] Dragon Quest XI (Square Enix) - 1.368.698
  17. [2013/3DS] Yo-kai Watch (Level 5) - 1.294.133
  18. [2013/3DS] Dragon Quest VII (Square Enix) - 1.238.660
  19. [2016/PS4] Final Fantasy XV (Square Enix) - 1.042.951
  20. [2009/PS3] Resident Evil 5 (Capcom) - 1.041.195
  21. [2020/PS4] Final Fantasy VII Remake (Square Enix) - 1.000.000+
  22. [2008/PS3] Metal Gear Solid 4 (Konami) - 998.429 
  23. [2015/3DS] Monster Strike (Mixi) - 968.543
  24. [2011/PS3] Final Fantasy XIII-2 (Square Enix) - 940.269
  25. [2012/3DS] Dragon Quest Monsters (Square Enix) - 921.310
  26. [2013/PS3] Grand Theft Auto V (Take Two) - 880.877
  27. [2012/PS3] Resident Evil 6 (Capcom) - 866.735
  28. [2015/3DS] Dragon Quest VIII (Square Enix) - 864.865
  29. [2019/PS4] Kingdom Hearts III (Square Enix) - 861.226
  30. [2012/PS3] One Piece: Pirate Warriors (Bandai Namco) - 828.132
  • 3DS - 16
  • PS3 - 8
  • PS4 - 5
  • NSW - 2

3DS TOTAL: 32.066.684

PS3 TOTAL: 7.523.524

PS4 TOTAL: 6.837.803

NSW TOTAL: 3.200.000

Overall 3rd Party Publishers were slow to transition to the Switch, but next year it's very likely that Switch will start to catch up to the 3DS.

I think both Minecraft and Momotaro will end up with at least 3 million physical sales, while Monster Hunter Rise has potential to sell above 6 million if an expansion is released in 2022. This will bring 3rd Party sales to 12 million on the Switch and bump off One Piece: Pirate Warriors off the 30th position. The main difference between the past and right now is that games like Minecraft, Momotaro & Monster Hunter Rise are unlikely to be replaced very quickly. Thus their lifetime totals will end up far higher than their initial launches. In the case of Monster Hunter Rise, I anticipate it would end up as the best selling 3rd Party game of all time in Japan. 

I don't think Final Fantasy XVI has a chance to sell above Kingdom Hearts III. For Square it will be interesting if Bravely Default 2 is actually is able to find growth and show legs similar to DQXIS on the Switch. Obviously when Square releases DQXII, DQB3, DQM4 etc they have a great chance to make the Top 30. I'm anticipating we get at DQH4, DQB3 or DQM4 as their major fall game for 2021 on the Switch. 

Olive Town by Marvelous is the next dark horse after Momotaro, I think that this type of game can do very well with the New Horizon audience. Currently its too early to discuss the potential of Rune Factory 5, SMTV, PES, Monster Hunter Stories 2 etc but after Momotaro, I'm would not be suprised if something unexpected blows up in 2021. 

Before Breath of the Wild launched no one in the sales community was expecting a Zelda game to be able to sell over 2 million in it's lifetime but it happened. No one expected Momotaro to be the first break-out 3rd Party hit on the Platform. No one expected that Minecraft might be able to sell 5 million copies physical+digital on the Switch lifetime - yet all of these thing happened. New Horizon has showed us that Switch isn't following historic trends, it's carving out it's own history and despite the slow start 3rd Parties will end up reaping massive benefits from the system in Japan and elsewhere in the coming years.

Sales by Year

  1. 2013: 8.475.226
    1. Capcom
    2. GungHo
    3. Level 5
    4. Square Enix
    5. Take Two
  2. 2015: 6.834.156
    1. Capcom
    2. Level 5
    3. Mixi
    4. Square Enix
  3. 2014: 5.802.408
    1. Level 5
    2. Capcom
  4. 2017: 4.859.661
    1. Square Enix
    2. Capcom
  5. 2018: 4.264.928
    1. Capcom
    2. Microsoft
  6. 2009: 3.009.082
    1. Square Enix
    2. Capcom
  7. 2011: 2.881.375
    1. Capcom 
    2. Square Enix
  8. 2012: 2.616.177
    1. Square Enix
    2. Capcom
    3. Bandai Namco
  9. 2016: 2.538.842
    1. Level 5
    2. Square Enix
  10. 2008: 998.429
    1. Konami 
  11. 2019: 861.226
    1. Square Enix

There is a lot of similarities between 2021 and 2013, New Horizon & Ring Fit have greatly expanded the audience on the Switch, while Monster Hunter Rise will also diversify the audience further. The main additional focus should be the stacked line-up by both Nintendo and third parties. Outside of MHR, we have Bowser's Fury, Breath of the Wild 2, Olive Town, Rune Factory 5, Monster Hunter Stories 2, SMT V, Bravely Default 2, imagine if a few more major titles get revealed for Obon & the fall.. 

This is the main reason to expect 2021 hardware to end up higher compared to 2020, New Horizon, Ring Fit & Monster Hunter Rise will continue to attract new audiences - while Switch is will make additional gains due to the fact it's the only viable platform in Japan going forward, as the PS5 is unlikely to sell more than 1 million hardware per year. The decline the PlayStation ecosystem has seen will be additional fuel that enables even greater consolidation of the market than we witnessed in 2020. Next year Switch will likely make up over 90% of Hardware & Software sold in Japan. It would be an unprecedented year, where certain preconceptions about the Japanese market might be shattered