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Forums - Sony Discussion - How much units will the PS5 sell next year?

         

How much will the PS5 sell in 2021?

< 5M 3 $1,050.02 6.52%
 
5-7.5M 1 $5.00 2.17%
 
7.5M-10M 3 $161.00 6.52%
 
10M-12.5M 3 $1,220.00 6.52%
 
12.5M-15M 7 $1,102.00 15.22%
 
15M-17.5M 17 $6,386.00 36.96%
 
17.5M-20M 8 $1,962.00 17.39%
 
20M-22.5M 1 $1,000.00 2.17%
 
22.5M-25M 2 $550.00 4.35%
 
> 25M 1 $1.00 2.17%
 
 
Totals: 46 $13,437.02  
Game closed: 12/31/2020
PortisheadBiscuit said:
DonFerrari said:

From start this have only been a rumor and Sony have denied.

I can deny the sky is blue too...

Sure you can. But since rumor had 0 proof of what they were claiming don't know why you would take that as true in the first place.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

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VideoGameAccountant said:
DonFerrari said:

Sure launch window doesn't ensure lifetime sales. But if there wasn't demand from even scalped consoles they wouldn't be continuing to scalp even a month after release and we will see lack of availability probably until April.

What your describing is a situation where there is absolutely no demand. That's not what's happening here. Again, console launches always have high demand. For an extreme example, the Wii U sold about 3 million in it's first quarter despite only selling 13 million over a 4 year lifespan. There isn't going to be a drop in demand until after about January.

And you were basically claiming that if not by scalpers PS5 wouldn't be sold out. Do you think PS5 will be anywhere near the performance of WiiU?



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

VideoGameAccountant said:
DonFerrari said:

Sure launch window doesn't ensure lifetime sales. But if there wasn't demand from even scalped consoles they wouldn't be continuing to scalp even a month after release and we will see lack of availability probably until April.

What your describing is a situation where there is absolutely no demand. That's not what's happening here. Again, console launches always have high demand. For an extreme example, the Wii U sold about 3 million in it's first quarter despite only selling 13 million over a 4 year lifespan. There isn't going to be a drop in demand until after about January.

Although I generally agree with you about launches, using the WiiU as an example actually works against your point:  It shipped 3 million in its first quarter but it only sold through about 2 million of those units during that time (EDIT: actually 2.5m if you count its first 3 months), but by the end of December it was clear to retailers that WiiU was not going to hold any kind of launch momentum and it took Nintendo months to sell through the rest of that initial shipment.  Certainly nothing like the current demand for the PS5.

Last edited by archbrix - on 23 December 2020

archbrix said:
VideoGameAccountant said:

What your describing is a situation where there is absolutely no demand. That's not what's happening here. Again, console launches always have high demand. For an extreme example, the Wii U sold about 3 million in it's first quarter despite only selling 13 million over a 4 year lifespan. There isn't going to be a drop in demand until after about January.

Although I generally agree with you about launches, using the WiiU as an example actually works against your point:  It shipped 3 million in its first quarter but it only sold through about 2 million of those units during that time.  By the end of December it was clear to retailers that WiiU was not going to hold any kind of launch momentum and it took Nintendo months to sell through the rest of that initial shipment.  Certainly nothing like the current demand for the PS5.

This are the weekly sales of the WiiU, it seems like it took 30 weeks to sell 3 million

W#WeekUnitsTotal
111/24/2012472,099472,099
212/1/2012322,306794,405
312/8/2012532,2691,326,674
412/15/2012326,3221,652,996
512/22/2012318,6071,971,603
612/29/2012187,6312,159,234
71/5/2013118,5112,277,745
81/12/201345,7752,323,520
91/19/201335,1102,358,630
101/26/201331,3862,390,016
112/2/201334,1262,424,142
122/9/201333,8442,457,986
132/16/201335,9502,493,936
142/23/201332,8412,526,777
153/2/201327,6622,554,439
163/9/201326,5982,581,037
173/16/201326,3952,607,432
183/23/201350,1842,657,616
193/30/201360,7562,718,372
204/6/201341,6302,760,002
214/13/201331,3712,791,373
224/20/201330,0612,821,434
234/27/201327,8062,849,240
245/4/201329,3522,878,592
255/11/201323,6002,902,192
265/18/201321,2082,923,400
275/25/201322,3122,945,712
286/1/201322,0122,967,724
296/8/201320,3682,988,092
306/15/201319,3513,007,443


dmillos said:
archbrix said:

Although I generally agree with you about launches, using the WiiU as an example actually works against your point:  It shipped 3 million in its first quarter but it only sold through about 2 million of those units during that time.  By the end of December it was clear to retailers that WiiU was not going to hold any kind of launch momentum and it took Nintendo months to sell through the rest of that initial shipment.  Certainly nothing like the current demand for the PS5.

This are the weekly sales of the WiiU, it seems like it took 30 weeks to sell 3 million

W#WeekUnitsTotal
111/24/2012472,099472,099
212/1/2012322,306794,405
312/8/2012532,2691,326,674
412/15/2012326,3221,652,996
512/22/2012318,6071,971,603
612/29/2012187,6312,159,234
71/5/2013118,5112,277,745
81/12/201345,7752,323,520
91/19/201335,1102,358,630
101/26/201331,3862,390,016
112/2/201334,1262,424,142
122/9/201333,8442,457,986
132/16/201335,9502,493,936
142/23/201332,8412,526,777
153/2/201327,6622,554,439
163/9/201326,5982,581,037
173/16/201326,3952,607,432
183/23/201350,1842,657,616
193/30/201360,7562,718,372
204/6/201341,6302,760,002
214/13/201331,3712,791,373
224/20/201330,0612,821,434
234/27/201327,8062,849,240
245/4/201329,3522,878,592
255/11/201323,6002,902,192
265/18/201321,2082,923,400
275/25/201322,3122,945,712
286/1/201322,0122,967,724
296/8/201320,3682,988,092
306/15/201319,3513,007,443

Yeah, it was actually 2.5m for the first 3 months that @VGA referenced, but nearly 1m WiiU's still sitting on shelves at the end of launch year actually illustrates that console launches don't always have high demand.



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DonFerrari said:
PortisheadBiscuit said:

I can deny the sky is blue too...

Sure you can. But since rumor had 0 proof of what they were claiming don't know why you would take that as true in the first place.

There's a fly in the ointment somewhere, stock levels don't seem to be anywhere near what they promised. Let's see if they actually get to 10 million shipped by March.



DonFerrari said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

The PS4 sold 14.6m in 2014. No way is the PS5 going to sell that much. I think it will be close to 10m. I voted 10-12.5m just because I think COVID is going to help it for the early part of next year. But with the high price and lack of new exclusives I just can't see it going above 12.5m.

Are you aware PS5 is launching with a much stronger library and exclusives than PS4?

1. The two of us have a different definition of "exclusive".  In my mind only Bugsnax is a PS5 exclusive.  However, Demon's Souls is probably the main game driving hardware sales right now since a lot of people didn't play it the first time around.

2. PS4 didn't have decent competition.  It competed with the Wii U and XB1.  PS5 is competing with the Switch and Series X.  Big difference.



DonFerrari said:
VideoGameAccountant said:

What your describing is a situation where there is absolutely no demand. That's not what's happening here. Again, console launches always have high demand. For an extreme example, the Wii U sold about 3 million in it's first quarter despite only selling 13 million over a 4 year lifespan. There isn't going to be a drop in demand until after about January.

And you were basically claiming that if not by scalpers PS5 wouldn't be sold out. Do you think PS5 will be anywhere near the performance of WiiU?

I never said that. What I said was

I think right now scalpers are fudging interest by taking up a lot of the supply. 

This was all I said on the subject before we started this conversation. Keep in mind, I'm saying this because what I'm saying is that the performance of the system isn't going to match what's happening right now for a myriad of other factors. Would it have still sold out if there weren't a ton of scalpers? Who knows. We have no way of telling at this moment. 

The Wii U comment is a strawman. I pointed out the Wii U as an example that, hey, consoles do well at launch. I'm obviously not saying that when my bet is a minimum of 10 million next year. What I am saying is it will be less than the PS4.

archbrix said:
VideoGameAccountant said:

What your describing is a situation where there is absolutely no demand. That's not what's happening here. Again, console launches always have high demand. For an extreme example, the Wii U sold about 3 million in it's first quarter despite only selling 13 million over a 4 year lifespan. There isn't going to be a drop in demand until after about January.

Although I generally agree with you about launches, using the WiiU as an example actually works against your point:  It shipped 3 million in its first quarter but it only sold through about 2 million of those units during that time (EDIT: actually 2.5m if you count its first 3 months), but by the end of December it was clear to retailers that WiiU was not going to hold any kind of launch momentum and it took Nintendo months to sell through the rest of that initial shipment.  Certainly nothing like the current demand for the PS5.

Considering that was one of the Wii U's best quarters, I think the point still holds true. It sold less than following fiscal year than it did in this one quarter. So here, the launch period was far better than the rest of the console's life. The Wii U is one of the worst selling home consoles so it's never going to compare to 1:1 with either Gen 9 console. I guess what I'm getting at is, early on, your sales are going to be good because you are getting the folks most dedicated to your platform.

EDIT:Sales are from Nintendo's Earning Releases by the by. Just thought I should clarify.

Last edited by VideoGameAccountant - on 23 December 2020

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Known as Smashchu in a former life

OK, we are in the final days you can place or change your bet. There are obviously some jokers, that burn their money on less than 5M. People: this isn't a bet about Japan, it is worldwide!

You can still change your bets until the end of the year.

Anyways, I graphed the current bets for all three consoles in the three threads:

So for PS5 it is a clear consensus on 15M-17.5M.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020

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bets: [peak year], [1], [2], [3], [4]

I'm expecting just under 15M. I'm lower than the consensus here but keep in kind that 15M in the first year is a whole lot already!