1. The two of us have a different definition of "exclusive".  In my mind only Bugsnax is a PS5 exclusive.  However, Demon's Souls is probably the main game driving hardware sales right now since a lot of people didn't play it the first time around.

2. PS4 didn't have decent competition.  It competed with the Wii U and XB1.  PS5 is competing with the Switch and Series X.  Big difference.

I never said that. What I said was

I think right now scalpers are fudging interest by taking up a lot of the supply. 

This was all I said on the subject before we started this conversation. Keep in mind, I'm saying this because what I'm saying is that the performance of the system isn't going to match what's happening right now for a myriad of other factors. Would it have still sold out if there weren't a ton of scalpers? Who knows. We have no way of telling at this moment. 

The Wii U comment is a strawman. I pointed out the Wii U as an example that, hey, consoles do well at launch. I'm obviously not saying that when my bet is a minimum of 10 million next year. What I am saying is it will be less than the PS4.

Considering that was one of the Wii U's best quarters, I think the point still holds true. It sold less than following fiscal year than it did in this one quarter. So here, the launch period was far better than the rest of the console's life. The Wii U is one of the worst selling home consoles so it's never going to compare to 1:1 with either Gen 9 console. I guess what I'm getting at is, early on, your sales are going to be good because you are getting the folks most dedicated to your platform.

EDIT:Sales are from Nintendo's Earning Releases by the by. Just thought I should clarify.

OK, we are in the final days you can place or change your bet. There are obviously some jokers, that burn their money on less than 5M. People: this isn't a bet about Japan, it is worldwide!

You can still change your bets until the end of the year.

Anyways, I graphed the current bets for all three consoles in the three threads:

So for PS5 it is a clear consensus on 15M-17.5M.

I'm expecting just under 15M. I'm lower than the consensus here but keep in kind that 15M in the first year is a whole lot already!

Hi @Bofferbrauer2 I was completely torn between choosing 12.5-15 or 15-17.5, I think it is going to be (+-)0.5M from 15M so it seems kind of a toss up for me. I went with the most positive scenario as more sells is better for everyone. 

Yeah, it was pretty much same for me. But since I needed to make a choice, I wanted to go against the consensus for a change.

Have you seem any direct promise by Sony on stock levels? I haven't seem any. All I saw was Sony saying they expect to have more shipped than PS4 on first fiscal year (until march). Everything else have been rumors.

1. And what strong day launch PS4 exclusives would you list?

2. Nope PS5 isn't competing with Switch as Switch also wasn't competing with PS4. And Series we still need to see if it will be a strong competition. For launch though it did similar to X1, and PS5 probably similar to PS4. First calendar year will still be mostly supply constrained and so the scenario shouldn't differ that much than PS4 vs X1.

Define the "a lot", how much have scalpers sold and how much would PS5 have sold without scalpers? Because making empty claims just to reduce PS5 sales doesn't really do anything.

16 to 18 million

I´m predicting Ps5 at 19.3M in 2021 as Sony minimizes Shipments problems.
Switch at 22.5M.

Iirc TSMC has only planned for 16-18 million PS5 chips so prepare for continued shortages.