How much units will the PS5 sell next year?

[VideoGameAccountant]

DonFerrari said:

VideoGameAccountant said:

What your describing is a situation where there is absolutely no demand. That's not what's happening here. Again, console launches always have high demand. For an extreme example, the Wii U sold about 3 million in it's first quarter despite only selling 13 million over a 4 year lifespan. There isn't going to be a drop in demand until after about January.

And you were basically claiming that if not by scalpers PS5 wouldn't be sold out. Do you think PS5 will be anywhere near the performance of WiiU?

I never said that. What I said was

I think right now scalpers are fudging interest by taking up a lot of the supply. 

This was all I said on the subject before we started this conversation. Keep in mind, I'm saying this because what I'm saying is that the performance of the system isn't going to match what's happening right now for a myriad of other factors. Would it have still sold out if there weren't a ton of scalpers? Who knows. We have no way of telling at this moment. 

The Wii U comment is a strawman. I pointed out the Wii U as an example that, hey, consoles do well at launch. I'm obviously not saying that when my bet is a minimum of 10 million next year. What I am saying is it will be less than the PS4.

archbrix said:

VideoGameAccountant said:

What your describing is a situation where there is absolutely no demand. That's not what's happening here. Again, console launches always have high demand. For an extreme example, the Wii U sold about 3 million in it's first quarter despite only selling 13 million over a 4 year lifespan. There isn't going to be a drop in demand until after about January.

Although I generally agree with you about launches, using the WiiU as an example actually works against your point:  It shipped 3 million in its first quarter but it only sold through about 2 million of those units during that time (EDIT: actually 2.5m if you count its first 3 months), but by the end of December it was clear to retailers that WiiU was not going to hold any kind of launch momentum and it took Nintendo months to sell through the rest of that initial shipment.  Certainly nothing like the current demand for the PS5.

Considering that was one of the Wii U's best quarters, I think the point still holds true. It sold less than following fiscal year than it did in this one quarter. So here, the launch period was far better than the rest of the console's life. The Wii U is one of the worst selling home consoles so it's never going to compare to 1:1 with either Gen 9 console. I guess what I'm getting at is, early on, your sales are going to be good because you are getting the folks most dedicated to your platform.

EDIT:Sales are from Nintendo's Earning Releases by the by. Just thought I should clarify.

Last edited by VideoGameAccountant - on 23 December 2020