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Forums - Sony Discussion - How much units will the PS5 sell next year?

         

How much will the PS5 sell in 2021?

< 5M 3 $1,050.02 6.52%
 
5-7.5M 1 $5.00 2.17%
 
7.5M-10M 3 $161.00 6.52%
 
10M-12.5M 3 $1,220.00 6.52%
 
12.5M-15M 7 $1,102.00 15.22%
 
15M-17.5M 17 $6,386.00 36.96%
 
17.5M-20M 8 $1,962.00 17.39%
 
20M-22.5M 1 $1,000.00 2.17%
 
22.5M-25M 2 $550.00 4.35%
 
> 25M 1 $1.00 2.17%
 
 
Totals: 46 $13,437.02  
Game closed: 12/31/2020

I put about 10-12.5 million though I'd say this is on the low end. My reason is that I don't see PS5 doing as well as PS4. There isn't as much enthusiasm for next gen as there was last time. I think right now scalpers are fudging interest by taking up a lot of the supply. I also expect 2021 will be a very bad economy. The COVID economy has been covered up by the media but for most of the year a third of renters could make their payments and same for home owners. As I understand it, the restrictions will lift. PS5 is going to be too expensive especially with $70 games. I think consumers are going to stick with the last gen longer. Switch also poses a nice alternative with a $200 smaller price tag. Also, Sony has burned through a lot of its goodwill in the last few years. There isn't any killer app on the horizon to boost sales either. So my prediction is a bit lower than most expect but I'm not seeing the PS5 meeting the first year of the PS4.



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They will sell as many units as they can produce. Going with 15-17.5M.



15-17.5 million, but I cannot place a bet. I am VGC broke lol.



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PS4 did 4.4M in launch year and 14.5M the year after, PS5, if supply allows it, should do better in launch year, so, with so little info, I can't dare to make wild predictions, either positive or negative, but I can a little more reasonably expect it to do better the year after too, with limits put again by supply, plus unpredictable factors, so I chose the range immediately above PS4 results in 2014. 15-17.5 looks reasonable enough, could do worse if Sony makes bad mistakes, but to do 18M or 20M or even more, both demand and supply should take off very fast, faster than both NS and PS4 actually. I can see Sony ramping up production as much as possible from initial average predictions if demand stays high enough, but having the plants ready for unprecedented year after launch sales is a bet top execs and major shareholdes won't accept to make easily. Not impossible, but they need either to accept a big risk or to receive all the necessary infos to make a reliable prediction of record sales early enough to set things up in time.



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As many as they can produce, I would guess 12-15M.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

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VideoGameAccountant said:

I put about 10-12.5 million though I'd say this is on the low end. My reason is that I don't see PS5 doing as well as PS4. There isn't as much enthusiasm for next gen as there was last time. I think right now scalpers are fudging interest by taking up a lot of the supply. I also expect 2021 will be a very bad economy. The COVID economy has been covered up by the media but for most of the year a third of renters could make their payments and same for home owners. As I understand it, the restrictions will lift. PS5 is going to be too expensive especially with $70 games. I think consumers are going to stick with the last gen longer. Switch also poses a nice alternative with a $200 smaller price tag. Also, Sony has burned through a lot of its goodwill in the last few years. There isn't any killer app on the horizon to boost sales either. So my prediction is a bit lower than most expect but I'm not seeing the PS5 meeting the first year of the PS4.

If there wasn't strong demand for the console there wouldn't be as many scalpers.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

I think if they can make 18m and ship that, they will sell it.
(hopefully not just me being too optimistic)



The PS4 sold 14.6m in 2014. No way is the PS5 going to sell that much. I think it will be close to 10m. I voted 10-12.5m just because I think COVID is going to help it for the early part of next year. But with the high price and lack of new exclusives I just can't see it going above 12.5m.



The_Liquid_Laser said:

The PS4 sold 14.6m in 2014. No way is the PS5 going to sell that much. I think it will be close to 10m. I voted 10-12.5m just because I think COVID is going to help it for the early part of next year. But with the high price and lack of new exclusives I just can't see it going above 12.5m.

Are you aware PS5 is launching with a much stronger library and exclusives than PS4?



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

DonFerrari said:
VideoGameAccountant said:

I put about 10-12.5 million though I'd say this is on the low end. My reason is that I don't see PS5 doing as well as PS4. There isn't as much enthusiasm for next gen as there was last time. I think right now scalpers are fudging interest by taking up a lot of the supply. I also expect 2021 will be a very bad economy. The COVID economy has been covered up by the media but for most of the year a third of renters could make their payments and same for home owners. As I understand it, the restrictions will lift. PS5 is going to be too expensive especially with $70 games. I think consumers are going to stick with the last gen longer. Switch also poses a nice alternative with a $200 smaller price tag. Also, Sony has burned through a lot of its goodwill in the last few years. There isn't any killer app on the horizon to boost sales either. So my prediction is a bit lower than most expect but I'm not seeing the PS5 meeting the first year of the PS4.

If there wasn't strong demand for the console there wouldn't be as many scalpers.

This isn't necessarily true. Scalpers are doing it because they perceive the product will be popular or at least in small enough supply.  Also, as others and myself have pointed out before, the launch window is never indicative of lifetime sales. They always do well at launch which is why you have scalpers (make a quick buck on those people that have to have it). They're actions aren't indicative of how actual popular the product is.



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