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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Nintendos holiday 2020

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Mnementh said:
Cerebralbore101 said:

Not really a good holiday lineup.  Just comparing it to Nintendo's 2018 lineup it is lacking. And 2018 was a fairly weak year for Switch.

Holidays 2018

Smash Bros Ultimate
Torna The Golden Country
Super Mario Party
Poke'mon Let's Go
Valkyria Chronicles 4 Nintendo shouldn't be given credit for 3rd party games.

Holidays 2020

Bravely Default II Nintendo shouldn't be given credit for 3rd party games.
Pikmin 3
3D All Stars
Age of Calamity

Notice, I'm being overly generous to both years here. Rereleases of old games really shouldn't count for much. After all 2018 had Bayo 2, Tropical Freeze, and Treasure Tracker ported to Switch. The facts that we are focusing on the Holidays launch period, and 2018's ports all came outside the holidays puts an unfair hand on the scale. We're accidentally committing the Texas Sharpshooter fallacy by focusing so much on the holidays, where Nintendo's ports all happen have a holidays release date in 2020, and didn't happen to have a holidays release date in 2018. I listed Valkyria 4 and Bravely Default with strikethrough text just to remind people that 2018 had a 3rd party Strategy RPG in the holidays release window. So having a 3rd party JRPG in the 2020 holidays release window shouldn't be impressive. Oh, and since OP included a game which releases in September, I'm including September 2018 games in this comparison too.

Finally, it goes without saying that Mario Kart Home Circuit shouldn't count at all. This should be obvious, but I know a ton of people aren't going to get the context of the conversation. It's an AR Mario Kart game that costs $100 per remote controlled car. There are a ton of other reasons why it shouldn't impress anyone, but I'd be talking to a crowd so dense and clueless that they make Sheldon from Big Bang Theory look socially aware.

The only game with a Nintendo IP, that I'm looking forward to for Holidays 2020 is Age of Calamity. And even that a mild type of looking forward to. If it didn't have the BotW engine, and Zelda BotW Lore, I'd be skipping it. On the flip side, I was salivating at the mouth for Smash Ultimate, and Torna in Holidays 2018.

In holidays 2018 I bought Valkyria 4, Smash, Torna, and Poke'mon Let's Go. In Holidays 2020 I'm going to buy Age of Calamity, Pikmin 3 (for collection purposes. I already own it on Wii U), and Bravely Default II. Personally it's Smash, Torna, and Let's Go VS Age of Calamity.

This does have a small chance of changing in favor of 2020 though. Nintendo could shadow drop more Holidays 2020 games like Poke'mon Snap 2 (with 3x the length of the original), or a new F-Zero game, or a 2D Metroid with AAA quality development.

I think it is generally a bad idea to subjectively decide which games should and shouldn't count. Basically all that matters is: does it sell?

I also think, that excluding 3rd-party is an argument designed to make Nintendo look good. Because if we exclude 3rd-parties, Playstation and Xbox usually look bad. But people have no problem counting Cyberpunk as a big title for them, so we shouldn't make such reservations.

Obviously I cannot tell yet, how well these titles will sell. But I can give my opinion, that the five I mentioned will play a role in shaping the sales over the holidays.

Last: I never said this lineup is better than 2018. I said, it is a worthwile lineup. I clearly even stated, that it misses the big punch title like Pokemon or Smash. But I think the holidays can be filled with a bunch of these smaller titles. And that range and diversity isn't looking too shabby. I think Switch owners will find a game to buy from their holiday money.

Well if we're talking about sales, I don't see this holiday lineup outselling 2018's. Smash + Poke'mon Let's Go is just too much. For both years overall though? Animal Crossing is an absolute sales monster at 25-35 million in its first year, so it's possible. Unlikely but possible. I'd give it 15% odds that AC carries 2020 to better overall software sales than 2018.

Xbox usually looks bad, but Playstation? On an overall yearly 1st and 2nd party output basis they are just as good as Nintendo, if not better. But anyway, even if we were to accept Bravely Default II, we'd have to accept Valkyria 4 in the 2018 comparison. Did Valkyria 4 sell well? No, but it was a fantastic game.

Yeah, I didn't mean to imply that you thought 2020 was better than 2018. The 2018 vs 2020 comparison wasn't trying to imply that the OP thought that. I very nearly quoted you on the Smash + Pokemon missing comment. I was going to say that you hit the nail on the head with that comment. Couldn't agree more, that Nintendo is missing at least one big Holidays seller, compared to other years. Animal Crossing's insane leg's not withstanding.

Zero_Revolution said:
Cerebralbore101 said:

Not really a good holiday lineup.  Just comparing it to Nintendo's 2018 lineup it is lacking. And 2018 was a fairly weak year for Switch.

Holidays 2018

Smash Bros Ultimate
Torna The Golden Country
Super Mario Party
Poke'mon Let's Go
Valkyria Chronicles 4 Nintendo shouldn't be given credit for 3rd party games.

Holidays 2020

Bravely Default II Nintendo shouldn't be given credit for 3rd party games.
Pikmin 3
3D All Stars
Age of Calamity

Notice, I'm being overly generous to both years here. Rereleases of old games really shouldn't count for much. After all 2018 had Bayo 2, Tropical Freeze, and Treasure Tracker ported to Switch. The facts that we are focusing on the Holidays launch period, and 2018's ports all came outside the holidays puts an unfair hand on the scale. We're accidentally committing the Texas Sharpshooter fallacy by focusing so much on the holidays, where Nintendo's ports all happen have a holidays release date in 2020, and didn't happen to have a holidays release date in 2018. I listed Valkyria 4 and Bravely Default with strikethrough text just to remind people that 2018 had a 3rd party Strategy RPG in the holidays release window. So having a 3rd party JRPG in the 2020 holidays release window shouldn't be impressive. Oh, and since OP included a game which releases in September, I'm including September 2018 games in this comparison too.

Finally, it goes without saying that Mario Kart Home Circuit shouldn't count at all. This should be obvious, but I know a ton of people aren't going to get the context of the conversation. It's an AR Mario Kart game that costs $100 per remote controlled car. There are a ton of other reasons why it shouldn't impress anyone, but I'd be talking to a crowd so dense and clueless that they make Sheldon from Big Bang Theory look socially aware.

The only game with a Nintendo IP, that I'm looking forward to for Holidays 2020 is Age of Calamity. And even that a mild type of looking forward to. If it didn't have the BotW engine, and Zelda BotW Lore, I'd be skipping it. On the flip side, I was salivating at the mouth for Smash Ultimate, and Torna in Holidays 2018.

In holidays 2018 I bought Valkyria 4, Smash, Torna, and Poke'mon Let's Go. In Holidays 2020 I'm going to buy Age of Calamity, Pikmin 3 (for collection purposes. I already own it on Wii U), and Bravely Default II. Personally it's Smash, Torna, and Let's Go VS Age of Calamity.

This does have a small chance of changing in favor of 2020 though. Nintendo could shadow drop more Holidays 2020 games like Poke'mon Snap 2 (with 3x the length of the original), or a new F-Zero game, or a 2D Metroid with AAA quality development.


It makes zero sense to exclude major third party titles when those are the driving force for other platforms. But especially in this case, as Nintendo is actually publishing Bravely Default II. If we also include other major third party exclusives, No More Heroes 3 is still slated for this year. And Mario Kart Live features complete software in addition to the toy. There's no reason to arbitrarily decide which games should count as their lineup based on your personal preferences. I personally don't care about Bravely or Mario Kart Live but to say they just don't count for absolutely no reason is being completely unfair. Even more so seeing as you would think a new Metroid or F-Zero to count when those would be MUCH smaller releases sales wise for Nintendo compared to Hyrule Warriors or Mario 3D All Stars. Maybe even smaller than Bravely Default, which did really well on 3DS, and better than the Metroid games released on that platform.

I see your point about things counting or not counting.

I want you to imagine Nintendo's 2018 only worse. In this alternate timeline Smash Ultimate doesn't exist. Octopath Traveler got delayed to December 2018. Labo is now a holidays title. Bayonetta 2, also got moved to the Holidays release window. Tropical Freeze is now an early 2019 release. Valkyria 4 doesn't exist. Neither does Super Mario Party. Poke'mon Let's Go is still there of course. I think we can both agree that such a scenario would be worse than what Nintendo actually had in 2018.

This alternate scenario lines roughly lines up with what we know Nintendo has so far for holidays 2020.

Bravely Default II = Octopath
Labo = Mario Kart RC Cars
Poke'mon Let's Go = 3D All Stars*
Bayonetta 2 = Pikmin 3
Torna = Age of Calamity

*Okay, 3D All Stars and Let's Go aren't exactly a 1 to 1 comparison. Let's Go is a remake with enough twists to make it its own game, while 3D All Stars is a very low effort compilation. But I think 3D All Stars will sell roughly 8 to 15 million units, so saleswise, I think it fits.

On a personal level, I'm very disappointed in Nintendo's holiday schedule, because the only thing new I'll be picking up is Age of Calamity. But on an objective level, I think we can agree that Nintendo's 2020 Holiday release schedule looks a lot like the alternate 2018 Holiday release schedule that I layed out above. 

P.S. I would love for NMH3 this year! Sadly I've lost hope in that. Bravely Default II might even get delayed. :(

Last edited by Cerebralbore101 - on 09 September 2020

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Animal Crossing, Ring Fit and Mario 3D All-Stars will carry the Switch this holiday.

That's a killer lineup.



Passable from my point of view. From a commercial POV however, i'm sure it will be more than enough, Mario allstars is going to be massive, if Amazon is any indicator! Regardless of whether the SW fits my tastes, the mass market will eat it up. Also, i'm pretty sure another game will be shown for December, be it Snap or something so far unannounced.



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In my opinion the N64 was not just the best console of the 5th gen but, to this day the best console ever created!

I think Nintendo will do fine. This line-up is nowhere near as bad as their GameCube 2005 holiday line-up of:

Fire Emblem
Super Mario Strikers
Pokemon XD

It was pitiful.



Snesboy said:
I think Nintendo will do fine. This line-up is nowhere near as bad as their GameCube 2005 holiday line-up of:

Fire Emblem
Super Mario Strikers
Pokemon XD

It was pitiful.

Probably their worst holiday lineup ever.



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Cerebralbore101 said:
Snesboy said:
I think Nintendo will do fine. This line-up is nowhere near as bad as their GameCube 2005 holiday line-up of:

Fire Emblem
Super Mario Strikers
Pokemon XD

It was pitiful.

Probably their worst holiday lineup ever.

That's hardly fair. That might be a light line-up, but it's not an accurate comparison. Nintendo also had holiday releases in 2005 on GBA and DS. Switch is Nintendo's only dedicated platform, and only in the middle of its life. We should expect more from Nintendo's only platform halfway through its life.

I won't debate that Nintendo has titles that will make a lot of money this holiday season. But none of them have the oomph that Super Mario Odyssey, Super Smash Bros., and Pokemon have. 



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 125 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million)

PS5: 105 million Xbox Series S/X: 60 million

PS4: 122 mil (was 100 then 130 million) Xbox One: 50 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

Wman1996 said:
Cerebralbore101 said:

Probably their worst holiday lineup ever.

That's hardly fair. That might be a light line-up, but it's not an accurate comparison. Nintendo also had holiday releases in 2005 on GBA and DS. Switch is Nintendo's only dedicated platform, and only in the middle of its life. We should expect more from Nintendo's only platform halfway through its life.

I won't debate that Nintendo has titles that will make a lot of money this holiday season. But none of them have the oomph that Super Mario Odyssey, Super Smash Bros., and Pokemon have. 

Ha! You're right. GBA, DS, and GameCube all existed as current gen retail offerings, at the same time!  Nintendo only really had holidays 2017 to support both the 3DS and Switch. If you check the dates for the 3DS games here you can count the 2017 holiday titles, that Nintendo offered, for 3DS. https://opencritic.com/browse/3ds/2017/date



I think they will all sell pretty well, but obviously ud prefer to have 1 game sell 5mill over the holiday than 4 combined. Those numbers are for concept purposes, not some prediction. Also none of the titles are real system sellers imo. Wouldnt be surprised if 10do pulls out some back catalog marketing.



Given that I wouldn't be surprised if the pandemic pushed back a few release dates, I have no complaints about the holiday lineup. I am still expecting more announcements for this year though, big or small.



Cerebralbore101 said:
Snesboy said:
I think Nintendo will do fine. This line-up is nowhere near as bad as their GameCube 2005 holiday line-up of:

Fire Emblem
Super Mario Strikers
Pokemon XD

It was pitiful.

Probably their worst holiday lineup ever.

Oh man, are we talking sales or preference?  Cuz 2008's combo of animal crossing city folk and wii music is pretty bad. Id def prefer strikers and fire emblem over those ez.