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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Nintendos holiday 2020

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I added Immortals Fenyx Rising to the list, as it looks like another title people will buy and play.

3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020

10 years greatest game event!

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AngryLittleAlchemist said:
RolStoppable said:

Good to see that reality settles in. I always found it weird that people jumped to the conclusion that consolidation of home console and handheld software development would result in greater software output overall when at the same time development times for individual titles were bound to increase (an NX game takes more effort than a 3DS game, obviously). Wii U and 3DS was the generation where it stopped working for Nintendo, so both systems suffered from first party software droughts at various points in their respective lifes. But the same amount of software concentrated on one platform would have been fine and Switch demonstrates that it is.

Now the next step is for people at large to realize that the expectation of a Switch successor in 2022 or 2023 is nuts. It already takes a long time to complete development of high profile software, so pushing for even more powerful hardware as soon as possible doesn't make sense. Especially when you consider the current situation where both the Zelda team and EAD Tokyo are very likely to get out their latest games in 2021, so four years after their first Switch games. Nintendo would not be close to ready for a new platform launch in 2022 or 2023.

Oh I've known that for a while now to be fair, probably since after 2018. 

I could see 2023, but I would hope for 2024, as I think there's still quite a bit of life left in the Switch, and with the way technology progresses I think waiting it out as long as possible while still maintaining high demand is smart. 2022 just sounds fucking insane, and would be beyond stupid from Nintendo too. 

I wouldn't expect a Switch 2 before 2024. March 2024 feels like it'd be a perfect launch time. Maybe a Switch Home in 2023, combined with Nintendo Select's discounts on games that year, along with final price cuts on the other models, plus third party games, could push Switch through 2023 holidays well and into the last few months before the successor.

I must say though I am disappointed in the lack of first party output considering there is only one system to handle now. Yes more advanced HD games take longer to make than previous gens, and obviously a lot longer than previous portable gens, but still you'd expect more. I think output has been good, but that includes ports, so the amount of new games seems a bit lackluster. It's very possible Nintendo will have a huge 2021 given that some games might have been delayed this year and they might have a bunch of stuff launching around when the next Switch model launches, and especially so to compete with the increased media focus the two next gen systems will have next year. If we get one more decently big new unannounced game this holiday, and then next year lineup is something like 3D World, Wii sports Club port or similar, another RF game, Zelda Collection, BotW2, 2D Mario, a mario sports game, Metroid Prime Trilogy, MP4 or new 2D Metroid, a Pokemon remake, Bayo 3, something like Star Fox or Fzero, and some portable series like Advance Wars or Golden Sun or Kid Icarus or something, I think that'd go a long way to making it feel like Nintendo is handling software output better after recent years where it felt like there were long droughts between big games. And that'd still leave plenty of first party games and sequels and even some ports or remasters to still come out in 2022 and a few in 2023.

Cerebralbore101 said:
Mnementh said:

I think it is generally a bad idea to subjectively decide which games should and shouldn't count. Basically all that matters is: does it sell?

I also think, that excluding 3rd-party is an argument designed to make Nintendo look good. Because if we exclude 3rd-parties, Playstation and Xbox usually look bad. But people have no problem counting Cyberpunk as a big title for them, so we shouldn't make such reservations.

Obviously I cannot tell yet, how well these titles will sell. But I can give my opinion, that the five I mentioned will play a role in shaping the sales over the holidays.

Last: I never said this lineup is better than 2018. I said, it is a worthwile lineup. I clearly even stated, that it misses the big punch title like Pokemon or Smash. But I think the holidays can be filled with a bunch of these smaller titles. And that range and diversity isn't looking too shabby. I think Switch owners will find a game to buy from their holiday money.

Well if we're talking about sales, I don't see this holiday lineup outselling 2018's. Smash + Poke'mon Let's Go is just too much. For both years overall though? Animal Crossing is an absolute sales monster at 25-35 million in its first year, so it's possible. Unlikely but possible. I'd give it 15% odds that AC carries 2020 to better overall software sales than 2018.

Xbox usually looks bad, but Playstation? On an overall yearly 1st and 2nd party output basis they are just as good as Nintendo, if not better. But anyway, even if we were to accept Bravely Default II, we'd have to accept Valkyria 4 in the 2018 comparison. Did Valkyria 4 sell well? No, but it was a fantastic game.

Yeah, I didn't mean to imply that you thought 2020 was better than 2018. The 2018 vs 2020 comparison wasn't trying to imply that the OP thought that. I very nearly quoted you on the Smash + Pokemon missing comment. I was going to say that you hit the nail on the head with that comment. Couldn't agree more, that Nintendo is missing at least one big Holidays seller, compared to other years. Animal Crossing's insane leg's not withstanding.

Zero_Revolution said:

It makes zero sense to exclude major third party titles when those are the driving force for other platforms. But especially in this case, as Nintendo is actually publishing Bravely Default II. If we also include other major third party exclusives, No More Heroes 3 is still slated for this year. And Mario Kart Live features complete software in addition to the toy. There's no reason to arbitrarily decide which games should count as their lineup based on your personal preferences. I personally don't care about Bravely or Mario Kart Live but to say they just don't count for absolutely no reason is being completely unfair. Even more so seeing as you would think a new Metroid or F-Zero to count when those would be MUCH smaller releases sales wise for Nintendo compared to Hyrule Warriors or Mario 3D All Stars. Maybe even smaller than Bravely Default, which did really well on 3DS, and better than the Metroid games released on that platform.

I see your point about things counting or not counting.

I want you to imagine Nintendo's 2018 only worse. In this alternate timeline Smash Ultimate doesn't exist. Octopath Traveler got delayed to December 2018. Labo is now a holidays title. Bayonetta 2, also got moved to the Holidays release window. Tropical Freeze is now an early 2019 release. Valkyria 4 doesn't exist. Neither does Super Mario Party. Poke'mon Let's Go is still there of course. I think we can both agree that such a scenario would be worse than what Nintendo actually had in 2018.

This alternate scenario lines roughly lines up with what we know Nintendo has so far for holidays 2020.

Bravely Default II = Octopath
Labo = Mario Kart RC Cars
Poke'mon Let's Go = 3D All Stars*
Bayonetta 2 = Pikmin 3
Torna = Age of Calamity

*Okay, 3D All Stars and Let's Go aren't exactly a 1 to 1 comparison. Let's Go is a remake with enough twists to make it its own game, while 3D All Stars is a very low effort compilation. But I think 3D All Stars will sell roughly 8 to 15 million units, so saleswise, I think it fits.

On a personal level, I'm very disappointed in Nintendo's holiday schedule, because the only thing new I'll be picking up is Age of Calamity. But on an objective level, I think we can agree that Nintendo's 2020 Holiday release schedule looks a lot like the alternate 2018 Holiday release schedule that I layed out above. 

P.S. I would love for NMH3 this year! Sadly I've lost hope in that. Bravely Default II might even get delayed. :(

I can agree to an extent, but I think the situation here is still pretty different. Hyrule Warriors is bigger than Torna and is also a full price new game release. That alongside the nature of it being tied to BotW and being the Canon prequel should make it a pretty decent seller, 4-5 million easily. 3D All-Stars may outsell the Let's Go games and I don't exactly think they are comparable products, but I'll agree that they will do as well as each other. Pikmin 3 will likely be a bigger deal than Bayonetta, and they are also quite different games. This will appeal to a new audience and to those who never played a game in the series before as it will be heavily marketed by Nintendo being a first party game. And then Bravely Default is a bigger IP than Octopath. 

I don't think their lineup is amazing or anything but I'm just not fully agreeing that it's as disappointing as you say, even if it might be disappointing to you personally. There's a lot of games and they're all pretty different from each other. They have a good lineup with lots of variety that will pull in a lot of different people to play. I think all things considered, especially with the pandemic, their lineup is a lot better than it could have been.

Wman1996 said:
Cerebralbore101 said:

Probably their worst holiday lineup ever.

That's hardly fair. That might be a light line-up, but it's not an accurate comparison. Nintendo also had holiday releases in 2005 on GBA and DS. Switch is Nintendo's only dedicated platform, and only in the middle of its life. We should expect more from Nintendo's only platform halfway through its life.

I won't debate that Nintendo has titles that will make a lot of money this holiday season. But none of them have the oomph that Super Mario Odyssey, Super Smash Bros., and Pokemon have. 

Yeah, you're right. But GBA was dead by the end of 2005.

DS had Mario Kart and Animal Crossing during the holidays. Some of the best games on the DS hands-down. But as a mainly GCN player, it was a sad Christmas.