Yea. It is definitely possibly by 2023 it could launch under $200. I could see the lineup at that point being something like Lite $150-$170, Home $150-$170, Pro (or whatever its called) dropping to $230, and the original discontinued. But knowing Nintendo I feel like they probably would release a Home version at $200 initially to make a real healthy profit and make the most profit from those who were just waiting for a non-portable Switch to come out, and then later on after Switch 2 launches maybe drop the price to $150 to get the impulse buy people who wouldn't be interested in Switch 2 for several more years.

Switch successor (I call it Switch 2) won't be released before 7 years in life of current standard Switch

And I, personally, think it will be released either on christmas on 2024 or early 2025.

Switch new model (I call it Switch 1.5) is coming early next year

It's already 3 years (maybe even 4 years) from Switch 1.5 to Switch 2. It's enough time, it's not like Switch 2 will suffer from huge demand for the Switch 1.5

People who buy a console late (half of the console lifecycles) won't buy Switch 2 on release either. They will wait to buy Switch 2 as well

There is also a point, Switch 1.5 and Switch 1 catalog will be 99% the same. It's just 1.5 will have better graphics and maybe more stable framerates, so late games will run more smoothly on 1.5, I also think some PS4/Xbox ports that will come from gargabe (Outer Worlds) to something more decent

Switch 2 games will be another thing entirely. Their games won't run on Switch 1, and probably won't play on Switch 1.5 either. I don't see how 1.5 released almost 4 years before and with much lower specs can affect Switch 2

He said he has a 1080p TV, so I assume that he uses HDMI 1.4b at best. So, a 4k@60 Hz 4:4:4 output won't be able to run on a HDMI 1.4 port that only supports 4k@ 30 Hz 4:4:4, but does 4k@ 60hz in 4:2:0. So, both devices will negotiate the connection and end up with HDMI 1.4 features in this case. And personally... 4k @4:2:0 chroma downscaled to 1080p.... What's the gain, honestly? And forcing (if that's even possible) 4k@60Hz 4:4:4 (higher bandwidth interface) to HDMI 1.4 (lower bandwidth interface) would result in a black screen. HDCP would get in the way afaik. 

If he still uses HDMI 1.2 on his TV, then no. It won't run 4k at all. 

An output like this may happen:

Edit: It seems I got this one wrong. It's not about outputting 4k. The output is 1080p, but the xbox downscales the 4k image internally(if you want to) down to 1080p. Compared to this, my old Bluray player was forced to output a 4k image, where the TV can't use this information. A TV itself can't downscale a 4k image down to 1080p. It would need a downscaler which supports 4k images. At least, mine couldn't. Thus it appears black. 

The other thing that could become problematic for Switch is Switch emulators are actually start to pop up on Android phones.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YLJlfD2nu-0&t=212s

Now that one is early and certainly doesn't run perfectly, but they're already adding updates every week. And Snapdragon 875 phones arrive in a few months, which will be a lot more powerful than the current 855/865 processor, letting emulators like this to run even better.

This one is also tied to a hardware controller that they're trying to sell, but it really doesn't take much for someone else to make an emulator that will just run off any controller (even Joycons themselves since they attach to smartphones anyway). In a year you could have some other emulator that runs a good deal better than this easily available. 

Correct. The Xbox always renders a game at the resolution that the developers set it at, changing the display mode to 4k or 1080P doesn't change the resolution the game renders at, the Xbox will simply upscale or downscale to match internally.... Which means Supersampling if a game renders at 2160P on a 1080P panel... And it does result in a very very clean image.

You can get some Blu-Ray players that do the same.

It doesn't matter what you call the hardware, the moment games start coming out that are no longer playable on the original switch it will mean that the userbase will automatically set to zero.

Nintendo need to get their portable mode to a position that developers will always continue to use, that way people who do not upgrade can continue to play new releases. This is why I think they will have a Switch 2 and consider how they can continue to upgrade it for docked mode. Then through the dock that is where the upgrades would happen on a 3-4 year basis. However they will need to consider say a 12 year future if that is the path they want to take as eventually the throughput speed between the switch and the dock will cap out. By then streaming probably will be the future.

Exactly. This is just another Switch model. I don't get why people are getting all crazy with ideas that this is a whole new system and its gonna play different games or its basically a Switch 2 or whatever other nonsense. It's just gonna beef up the performance of the same games so you get higher res and higher framerate where needed. It's nothing that would compete with Switch 2 or stop people from buying next gen several years later. The only exclusive games might come from this rumored new interactivity the next model is supposed to have, kinda like how there were like 5 games that were exclusive to DSi because they required the cameras. The fact that it supposedly can output higher resolutions doesn't mean anything for exclusive games. People are acting like Nintendo has never released updated portable systems before. They literally do this every single generation.

Probably the nicest thing that you'll get from owning this upgraded model is if you buy PS4/XB1 ports on Switch that have low resolution or have some framerate slowdown, they should look crisper and run smoother on the the upgraded Switch in comparison to the other two models.

The kind of people that don't have a Switch yet and are gonna buy this upgraded model probably aren't gonna get a Switch 2 in its first few years anyway. And the kind of people who already have a Switch and are gonna upgrade to this new model when it comes out are the kind of people that will still buy a Switch 2 early on because they clearly want to have the latest and greatest thing available and have the money to spend on it.

I see Switch 2 (docked) being able to nail all games at 1080p 60 FPS. 1440p 30 FPS or 1440p 60 FPS could be possible, but way less common. 4K is almost completely out of the question, unless Nintendo has a really efficient chip set. Or they're willing to have a very expensive product. I do think apps like YouTube, Hulu, and anything else like that will support streaming in 4K in docked mode. And I think the tablet screen will be 1080p.

Speaking of resolution, Sony and Microsoft brag that 8K resolution is supported for their upcoming consoles. But let's be real, virtually nothing will use it or be able to run it. They'd be lucky to have streaming services supporting 8K in 3-5 years.

Well with DLSS apparently this new model will already have 4k. Maybe like 5% of people will care about a difference between DLSS 4k and native 4k. So if upgraded Switch has 4k then obviously a vastly more powerful Switch 2 will have 4k. I expect Switch 2 games built for the system will run 4k, and then ports of PS5/XBSeries games will run at like 1080p on Switch 2, using that drop from 4k/90fps or whatever absurd thing those other systems target down to a perfectly fine 1080p/30fps in order to be able to do ports better than Switch can without all the work to downgrade them. 4k (using DLSS) should be the standard for games built specifically for Switch 2.

That's definitely true, most people who buy gaming systems are far more casual than we are and don't really pay attention to gaming or specs like us. Once they see the word "4K" they aren't thinking about whether games will only be upscaled to 4K or fully rendered in 4K cause they don't know those two things even exist or are entirely different from each other when it comes to graphical capabilities. Once they see the words "4K Switch" they'll get excited that they could get the hottest system at 4K for potentially only 300$. 4K is a big marketing word now even if games on Switch won't even render games even close to 4K.