Forums - Nintendo Discussion - WORSE Case Scenario: Switch is Still Going to Past 110mil, So why you think Under 130mil?

NSW will sell roughly

100mil 9 18.00%
 
110mil 10 20.00%
 
120mil 8 16.00%
 
130mil 9 18.00%
 
140mil 6 12.00%
 
150mil 5 10.00%
 
160mil 3 6.00%
 
Total:50

160 million.



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JRPGfan said:
PAOerfulone said:
FY1 2.74mil - 2.74 million
FY2 15.05mil - 17.79 million
FY3 16.95mil - 34.74 million
FY4 21.03mil - 55.77 million

FY5 (03/21) 25.00mil - 80.77 million
FY6 (03/22) 21.00 million - 101.77 million (Breath of the Wild 2 + Price cut: $150 - Switch Lite; $250 Hybrid)
FY7 (03/23) 17.00mil - 118.77 million (Hardware revision + Pokémon Gen 9)
FY8 (03/24) 12.00mil - 130.77 million (Switch 2 releases)
FY9 (03/25) 4.00mil - 134.77 million
FY10 (03/26) 1.50mil - 136.27 million (Hardware discontinued)
FY11 and beyond - 0.30mil - 136.57 million

Final - 136.57 million units

You honestly think its 4 more years or longer, until Switch gets replaced by a Switch 2?
When nintendo themselves have already talked about a new Switch?

Also damn.... predicting sales 7years further out.
That far out you have very little reliablity because of how much things can change
(ei. things you predict get really unaccurate with predictions, when you go more than year or two).

Still admittedly that does end up with a total of 136m.

How many systems does nintendo have thats still made and sold new, 11 years out?

Tbf he put FY9-11 as 5.8mil. 3DS still sold a few million units after NSW came out (2017-2019)

that said let’s see your breakdown for FY5/FY6/FY7/FY8



Valdney said:
160 million.

Explain your overly pessimistic prediction



PAOerfulone said:
FY1 2.74mil - 2.74 million
FY2 15.05mil - 17.79 million
FY3 16.95mil - 34.74 million
FY4 21.03mil - 55.77 million

FY5 (03/21) 25.00mil - 80.77 million
FY6 (03/22) 21.00 million - 101.77 million (Breath of the Wild 2 + Price cut: $150 - Switch Lite; $250 Hybrid)
FY7 (03/23) 17.00mil - 118.77 million (Hardware revision + Pokémon Gen 9)
FY8 (03/24) 12.00mil - 130.77 million (Switch 2 releases)
FY9 (03/25) 4.00mil - 134.77 million
FY10 (03/26) 1.50mil - 136.27 million (Hardware discontinued)
FY11 and beyond - 0.30mil - 136.57 million

Final - 136.57 million units

That looks just about right for a high end estimate. 21-17-12 decline is definitely possible, Switch 2 release timeline is likely, not sure if they are actually gonna ship 25 million this year but they will sell them if they do, I would guess Switch 2 is backwards compatible and Switch loses all support as soon as Switch 2 comes out so I think it might sell a million or so less than what you predict once it is retired. My high end prediction would be 135mil, and this shows a reasonable yearly prediction how it could get up around there assuming Nintendo keeps big games coming and starts getting competitive with the price in the later years and brings out at least one more new version of the Switch.



I'm cautiously optimistic. I mean, I would love to see Switch become the best selling piece of hardware of all time. It has become my favourite console of all time.

Once we are over the 100 million mark I will feel better, but Nintendo is so unpredictable that anything can happen. Wii sales slowed to nothing in its last years. Nintendo went from their greatest selling generation, to their worst selling, then came back with Switch... I know these have nothing to do with Switch sales in the end, but they do show just how unpredictable Nintendo's future can be. I don't think Switch sales will fall off a cliff like some, but I'm not willing to say it is impossible.



1doesnotsimply

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Anyone who says under 120m really hasn't run the numbers.  120m is pessimistic, but still has some historic precendent.  Anything less than that is basically saying Switch is going to magically drop off a cliff.  

Here are some numbers.  The most pessimistic projection for Switch is that it's tail end is going to be like the DS.  Also we assume sales of 24m for the current FY (which is pessimistic in itself), and add the projection to 55.78 which are the shipments Nintendo already reported.

DS YoY drop NSW proj.
31.19 24.0
27.11 -0.13081 20.9
17.52 -0.35374 13.5
5.1 -0.7089 3.9
2.35 -0.53922 1.8
0.13 -0.94468 0.1
NSW life 120.0

That's as pessimistic a projection that NSW can get, 120m.  As I said before 24m for the current fiscal year is on the pessimistic side, while 28m would be on the optimistic side.  If you do similar projections for other successful consoles, then here are what the numbers look like.

NES SNES GBA DS Wii 3DS PS1 PS2
NSW proj. 24m 144.5 128.4 120.8 120.0 126.7 151.0 130.7 152.6
NSW proj. 28m 159.3 140.5 131.6 130.7 138.5 166.9 143.2 168.8
Peak FY 6 3 4 5 3 3 4 3

If you actually run the numbers, then an optimistic projection can go as high as 170m and still be within the realm of reason.  A pessimistic projection can go as low as 120m.  I'd expect plenty of estimates to be between those two numbers.  I'm admittedly on the optimistic side, because I think Switch will sell 160m-170m.  That's optimistic, but still reasonable.  But anything less than 120m is unreasonable.  It's just not going to happpen.



tbone51 said:
Valdney said:
160 million.

Explain your overly pessimistic prediction

Barring a steep economic downturn, which is very much possible, I see the switch beating the DS. Why do I believe it can beat the DS? Because of a higher market penetration in developing countries. The DS didn’t do very hot in those markets (price could be a problem for the Switch  in those markets though). I see the Switch selling an average of 18-20 mil a year  from now until the end of 2024.

Now, of course I am also being very optimistic with Nintendo’s software output, but I have to be, because the Switch is Nintendo’s only console and they have to make the most out of it.  The concentration of resources on one platform will greatly benefit the Switch. In my opinion, the potentially best games for the Switch are yet to come. 



JRPGfan said:
How many of these threads do we need?
This is like the 3rd of its kinde in like a week or something...

How many times will people make the same lowballing predictions based on faulty reasoning?

PAOerfulone said:
FY1 2.74mil - 2.74 million
FY2 15.05mil - 17.79 million
FY3 16.95mil - 34.74 million
FY4 21.03mil - 55.77 million

FY5 (03/21) 25.00mil - 80.77 million
FY6 (03/22) 21.00 million - 101.77 million (Breath of the Wild 2 + Price cut: $150 - Switch Lite; $250 Hybrid)
FY7 (03/23) 17.00mil - 118.77 million (Hardware revision + Pokémon Gen 9)
FY8 (03/24) 12.00mil - 130.77 million (Switch 2 releases)
FY9 (03/25) 4.00mil - 134.77 million
FY10 (03/26) 1.50mil - 136.27 million (Hardware discontinued)
FY11 and beyond - 0.30mil - 136.57 million

Final - 136.57 million units

I like these numbers, but I wonder what the potential gain is with a big Mario Kart 9 release in the next year or two.

Hiku said:

I tend to avoid predicting sales trends several years into the future, as that results in more guesswork with less available knowledge of factors like software releases.

Though on that note I feel Nintendo consoles can be less predictable since Playstations are more or less guaranteed to get all third party console games that don't have an exclusivity deal.

I don't know how that affects Switch when it's not nearly that reliant on third party software. And despite certain people repeating the fallacy of, 'Nintendo mentioned a succesor so it must be coming soon!', the only time they talk about a future system is when discussing the extra longevity they plan to give Switch. So we know all their development will still be focused on this one system for a considerable amount of time yet.

Really isn't that difficult at all to predict potential software output between now and likely late 2024, when you just consider all the teams Nintendo have under their umbrella, along with studios they're closely associated with.



Switch will fall off a cliff so hard post 2020 it will reach a velocity greater than the speed of light, go back in time to 1993, use knowledge of the future to crush Sony but then become so arrogant they only release Switch Music after 2020. As a result Switch will fail and fall off a cliff thus satisfying the cliff-time travel paradox.

Sony will be gone, Nintendo will be cocky and the timelines will merge back together.

This is the only way Switch can sell less than 110m.



Nov 2016 - NES outsells PS1 (JP)

Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!

Pyro as Bill said:
Switch will fall off a cliff so hard post 2020 it will reach a velocity greater than the speed of light, go back in time to 1993, use knowledge of the future to crush Sony but then become so arrogant they only release Switch Music after 2020. As a result Switch will fail and fall off a cliff thus satisfying the cliff-time travel paradox.

Sony will be gone, Nintendo will be cocky and the timelines will merge back together.

This is the only way Switch can sell less than 110m.

As long as we avoid the coronavirus timeline in this version I'm ok with it. Here's to that great cliffdrop.