WORSE Case Scenario: Switch is Still Going to Past 110mil, So why you think Under 130mil?

[The_Liquid_Laser]

Anyone who says under 120m really hasn't run the numbers.  120m is pessimistic, but still has some historic precendent.  Anything less than that is basically saying Switch is going to magically drop off a cliff.  

Here are some numbers.  The most pessimistic projection for Switch is that it's tail end is going to be like the DS.  Also we assume sales of 24m for the current FY (which is pessimistic in itself), and add the projection to 55.78 which are the shipments Nintendo already reported.

DS	YoY drop	NSW proj.
31.19		24.0
27.11	-0.13081	20.9
17.52	-0.35374	13.5
5.1	-0.7089	3.9
2.35	-0.53922	1.8
0.13	-0.94468	0.1
NSW life		120.0

That's as pessimistic a projection that NSW can get, 120m.  As I said before 24m for the current fiscal year is on the pessimistic side, while 28m would be on the optimistic side.  If you do similar projections for other successful consoles, then here are what the numbers look like.

	NES	SNES	GBA	DS	Wii	3DS	PS1	PS2
NSW proj. 24m	144.5	128.4	120.8	120.0	126.7	151.0	130.7	152.6
NSW proj. 28m	159.3	140.5	131.6	130.7	138.5	166.9	143.2	168.8
Peak FY	6	3	4	5	3	3	4	3

If you actually run the numbers, then an optimistic projection can go as high as 170m and still be within the realm of reason.  A pessimistic projection can go as low as 120m.  I'd expect plenty of estimates to be between those two numbers.  I'm admittedly on the optimistic side, because I think Switch will sell 160m-170m.  That's optimistic, but still reasonable.  But anything less than 120m is unreasonable.  It's just not going to happpen.