Slownenberg on 16 July 2020
| PAOerfulone said: FY1 2.74mil - 2.74 million FY2 15.05mil - 17.79 million FY3 16.95mil - 34.74 million FY4 21.03mil - 55.77 million FY5 (03/21) 25.00mil - 80.77 million FY6 (03/22) 21.00 million - 101.77 million (Breath of the Wild 2 + Price cut: $150 - Switch Lite; $250 Hybrid) FY7 (03/23) 17.00mil - 118.77 million (Hardware revision + Pokémon Gen 9) FY8 (03/24) 12.00mil - 130.77 million (Switch 2 releases) FY9 (03/25) 4.00mil - 134.77 million FY10 (03/26) 1.50mil - 136.27 million (Hardware discontinued) FY11 and beyond - 0.30mil - 136.57 million Final - 136.57 million units |
That looks just about right for a high end estimate. 21-17-12 decline is definitely possible, Switch 2 release timeline is likely, not sure if they are actually gonna ship 25 million this year but they will sell them if they do, I would guess Switch 2 is backwards compatible and Switch loses all support as soon as Switch 2 comes out so I think it might sell a million or so less than what you predict once it is retired. My high end prediction would be 135mil, and this shows a reasonable yearly prediction how it could get up around there assuming Nintendo keeps big games coming and starts getting competitive with the price in the later years and brings out at least one more new version of the Switch.
