Don't look at me GB numbers are now the minimum I see it doing I think 130m is now a genuine possible target for it if it's given a long run.

I think the Switch isn't in the same paradigm as previous Nintendo consoles, so its difficult to use past console data to define the trajectory of this one.  But, of course, you are correct about the swift deaths that previous consoles have had. But I really disagree with your bolded point.  Animal Crossing almost requires each kid to have their own Switch to be played properly, adn is one of the best selling games on the system already, only 4 months after its release.  That game alone will cause the number of Switch consoles per household to increase.  The forthcoming price cuts, whenever they arrive, will also ensure the multiple console per household ratio to increase.  It really seems you are denying this console the benefits of Nintendo's handheld successes, which is ironic considering how many people (not necesarily you) declare that the Switch is just a handheld that happens to be able to be rendered on the TV, as opposed to a console that can be taken on the go.

All that being said, you probably have the Switch numbers higher than I do, which might have to do with you being a better predicter of these things. I only take exception with your take on the limitations that you're putting on the system based upon past trends.

This one provides numbers to prove you wrong :P

see, like my post above, a horrible fall off the cliff scenario would still put it over 100mil (after this year)

FY5 22.00mil

FY6 12.10mil

FY7 6.05mil

FY8 3.00mil

The DS started out at 149$ and dropped to 99$.
Switch price is high enough I feel like, the amount of people that just collect multiple version for the hell of it, will be lower, than past handheld models.
Plus Switch hasnt had the same level or amount of custum designs for games.

I personally do think Switch ends up around 100-120m, now.
However I think it ll fall just short of beating the PS4.

Those that think its going to reach 150m+ or beat the DS? I seriously doubt that.
Maybe time will prove me wrong though.

There is simply no guarantee that Switch will follow a similar curve to the PS4.

The main thing is first party support. With the Switch and DS, they continued to perform really well until Nintendo's first party support began to dry up. Once that happened, they coasted for a little while on the strength of evergreen titles before dropping sharply.

Doesn't seem like Nintendo is going to slow down Switch support in the next couple of years, but with Nintendo's future lineup a giant ?, it's hard to make a solid prediction for the Switch. BOTW2 is the only huge title we know about (with Bayonetta 3, New Snap, and Prime 3 being relatively big franchises that have the potential to become bigger on Switch). If you have faith that Nintendo has a good lineup lying in wait, then 110m is a very safe bet, but if they don't, it may limp past 100m.

Gamers who cannot sleep at night clinging to the idea of sales, sales and sales. Strange behaviour, seriously strange.

1.  Depends what part of the world you live in.  It's still morning here.

2.  This is VGC, also known as, VGChartz, or charts.

3.  At least we have an active forum for the moment.  It's great to see everyone posting.  I'm guilty of taking many months off from posting       as well, so I'm certainly not calling any one out on their lack of particpation.

4. Make a thread where we don't talk about those things and mix it up.

There are plenty of things to consider here though, these evergreens are unlike any other Nintendo games seen before. They won’t drop, going by shipments and sell thru of japan it does seem like it’ll go even past when NSW stop selling.

but that’s minor talk here, as for games there are plenty that are mid sizes to also being huge. 1 game that could be half of what AC is is Tomodachi Collection. The rumored Mario 3D collection game as well as many possibilities for Zelda anniversary next year. 100mil is practically guaranteed if NSW peaks this year. You can literally cut in half YoY after this one (22mil-24mil) and it’s hitting 100mil, 110mil is the worse case and that’s if everything goes wrong ;P

missed opportunity right here, damnit. When you put it like that, it would be funny to see the ones who claim it’ll barely hit 100mil or even worse never hit it.

I mean I think everyone is in agreement that NSW will peak this year (which puts it at 77mil at minimum) but in the next 3 years even if a successor were to come out in 2023 would only ship another 23mil. I can’t wrap my head around it.

Its nowhere near guaranteed that NSW will end up at or close to 150mil lifetime but it sure as hell a better bet than saying it’ll barely hit/miss 100mil lmao

So true!

As soon as you put up a yearly future breakdown of sales anything close to 100m becomes laughably absurdly low.

As Tbone says, 111m is the worst case scenario that is even remotely realistic, and that doesn't even include sales after the successor launches. So likely absolute worst case scenario is more like 115 million.

Which means 125-130 million is a likely scenario (hence I voted for 130 million). I'd say over 135mil is a stretch.

So fiscal year up to March was like 55 million right? So let's think about a realistic sales scenario:

FY5 24 mil, 79 mil total.....If Nintendo actually produces enough this year to have moderate shortages but not massive shortages.

FY6 20mil: 99mil.....price cut? Botw2 if it doesn't come this holiday? another Pokemon? a premium model of Switch?

FY7 15mil: 114mil

FY8 10mil: 124mil.....switch 2 launches right at the end of FY8 - March 2024.

post-Switch 2 launch 4mil: 128mil

That's 128 million with very reasonable not overly optimistic nor overly pessimistic predictions, and actually a steeper decline than I think it'll have.