Forums - Nintendo Discussion - WORSE Case Scenario: Switch is Still Going to Past 110mil, So why you think Under 130mil?

NSW will sell roughly

100mil 9 18.00%
 
110mil 10 20.00%
 
120mil 8 16.00%
 
130mil 9 18.00%
 
140mil 6 12.00%
 
150mil 5 10.00%
 
160mil 3 6.00%
 
Total:50

Don't look at me GB numbers are now the minimum I see it doing I think 130m is now a genuine possible target for it if it's given a long run.



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JRPGfan said:
super_etecoon said:

It's a dry, quiet time for Nintendo game announcements at the moment.  Not sure what you want posted instead.  And there are plenty of themes and ideas getting multiple threads right now across all platforms.  It's just the moment we're in.  But feel free to chime in on the discussion since you stopped by.

Last thread of this type, I said I believe Switch will get replaced by a Switch 2,0 within 2-3 years.
And that it would thus not outsell the PS4... doing less than 130m or so, which I suspect the PS4 will end up at.
It was a thread like "will the Switch outsell the PS4", and apparently I was like the only person there actually makeing arugment for it, everyone else just said more or less "yes" or "no".

I pointed out that Nintendo systems in generally, have a better showing first half of their life cycle, and usually drop faster than other consoles towards the end. Also that other nintendo handhelds systems that sold well, were cheaper, and had people collect multiple versions of same models (or newer models), as a collection item. Something unlikely with the switch. Pointing out that something like the DS, each parent would likely buy each kid their own model, while the Switch would be more likely to be a shared unit (hooked up to a tv, 1 joycon for each kid) type of deal.

I think the Switch isn't in the same paradigm as previous Nintendo consoles, so its difficult to use past console data to define the trajectory of this one.  But, of course, you are correct about the swift deaths that previous consoles have had. But I really disagree with your bolded point.  Animal Crossing almost requires each kid to have their own Switch to be played properly, adn is one of the best selling games on the system already, only 4 months after its release.  That game alone will cause the number of Switch consoles per household to increase.  The forthcoming price cuts, whenever they arrive, will also ensure the multiple console per household ratio to increase.  It really seems you are denying this console the benefits of Nintendo's handheld successes, which is ironic considering how many people (not necesarily you) declare that the Switch is just a handheld that happens to be able to be rendered on the TV, as opposed to a console that can be taken on the go.

All that being said, you probably have the Switch numbers higher than I do, which might have to do with you being a better predicter of these things. I only take exception with your take on the limitations that you're putting on the system based upon past trends.



JRPGfan said:
How many of these threads do we need?
This is like the 3rd of its kinde in like a week or something...

This one provides numbers to prove you wrong :P

see, like my post above, a horrible fall off the cliff scenario would still put it over 100mil (after this year)

FY5 22.00mil

FY6 12.10mil

FY7 6.05mil

FY8 3.00mil



super_etecoon said:
JRPGfan said:

Last thread of this type, I said I believe Switch will get replaced by a Switch 2,0 within 2-3 years.
And that it would thus not outsell the PS4... doing less than 130m or so, which I suspect the PS4 will end up at.
It was a thread like "will the Switch outsell the PS4", and apparently I was like the only person there actually makeing arugment for it, everyone else just said more or less "yes" or "no".

I pointed out that Nintendo systems in generally, have a better showing first half of their life cycle, and usually drop faster than other consoles towards the end. Also that other nintendo handhelds systems that sold well, were cheaper, and had people collect multiple versions of same models (or newer models), as a collection item. Something unlikely with the switch. Pointing out that something like the DS, each parent would likely buy each kid their own model, while the Switch would be more likely to be a shared unit (hooked up to a tv, 1 joycon for each kid) type of deal.

I think the Switch isn't in the same paradigm as previous Nintendo consoles, so its difficult to use past console data to define the trajectory of this one.  But, of course, you are correct about the swift deaths that previous consoles have had. But I really disagree with your bolded point.  Animal Crossing almost requires each kid to have their own Switch to be played properly, adn is one of the best selling games on the system already, only 4 months after its release.  That game alone will cause the number of Switch consoles per household to increase.  The forthcoming price cuts, whenever they arrive, will also ensure the multiple console per household ratio to increase.  It really seems you are denying this console the benefits of Nintendo's handheld successes, which is ironic considering how many people (not necesarily you) declare that the Switch is just a handheld that happens to be able to be rendered on the TV, as opposed to a console that can be taken on the go.

All that being said, you probably have the Switch numbers higher than I do, which might have to do with you being a better predicter of these things. I only take exception with your take on the limitations that you're putting on the system based upon past trends.

The DS started out at 149$ and dropped to 99$.
Switch price is high enough I feel like, the amount of people that just collect multiple version for the hell of it, will be lower, than past handheld models.
Plus Switch hasnt had the same level or amount of custum designs for games.

I personally do think Switch ends up around 100-120m, now.
However I think it ll fall just short of beating the PS4.

Those that think its going to reach 150m+ or beat the DS? I seriously doubt that.
Maybe time will prove me wrong though.



There is simply no guarantee that Switch will follow a similar curve to the PS4.

The main thing is first party support. With the Switch and DS, they continued to perform really well until Nintendo's first party support began to dry up. Once that happened, they coasted for a little while on the strength of evergreen titles before dropping sharply.

Doesn't seem like Nintendo is going to slow down Switch support in the next couple of years, but with Nintendo's future lineup a giant ?, it's hard to make a solid prediction for the Switch. BOTW2 is the only huge title we know about (with Bayonetta 3, New Snap, and Prime 3 being relatively big franchises that have the potential to become bigger on Switch). If you have faith that Nintendo has a good lineup lying in wait, then 110m is a very safe bet, but if they don't, it may limp past 100m.



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Gamers who cannot sleep at night clinging to the idea of sales, sales and sales. Strange behaviour, seriously strange.



Random_Matt said:
Gamers who cannot sleep at night clinging to the idea of sales, sales and sales. Strange behaviour, seriously strange.

1.  Depends what part of the world you live in.  It's still morning here.

2.  This is VGC, also known as, VGChartz, or charts.

3.  At least we have an active forum for the moment.  It's great to see everyone posting.  I'm guilty of taking many months off from posting       as well, so I'm certainly not calling any one out on their lack of particpation.

4. Make a thread where we don't talk about those things and mix it up.



JWeinCom said:
There is simply no guarantee that Switch will follow a similar curve to the PS4.

The main thing is first party support. With the Switch and DS, they continued to perform really well until Nintendo's first party support began to dry up. Once that happened, they coasted for a little while on the strength of evergreen titles before dropping sharply.

Doesn't seem like Nintendo is going to slow down Switch support in the next couple of years, but with Nintendo's future lineup a giant ?, it's hard to make a solid prediction for the Switch. BOTW2 is the only huge title we know about (with Bayonetta 3, New Snap, and Prime 3 being relatively big franchises that have the potential to become bigger on Switch). If you have faith that Nintendo has a good lineup lying in wait, then 110m is a very safe bet, but if they don't, it may limp past 100m.

There are plenty of things to consider here though, these evergreens are unlike any other Nintendo games seen before. They won’t drop, going by shipments and sell thru of japan it does seem like it’ll go even past when NSW stop selling.

but that’s minor talk here, as for games there are plenty that are mid sizes to also being huge. 1 game that could be half of what AC is is Tomodachi Collection. The rumored Mario 3D collection game as well as many possibilities for Zelda anniversary next year. 100mil is practically guaranteed if NSW peaks this year. You can literally cut in half YoY after this one (22mil-24mil) and it’s hitting 100mil, 110mil is the worse case and that’s if everything goes wrong ;P



Looks like you have this one upside down, tbone51. It's not you who has to prove a point, it's those who predict laughably low numbers. Simply ask them to post a yearly sales breakdown; if you are lucky, they'll realize while typing out the numbers that they aren't going to add up. If they don't realize it, then... well, nothing you can do to help them.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

RolStoppable said:
Looks like you have this one upside down, tbone51. It's not you who has to prove a point, it's those who predict laughably low numbers. Simply ask them to post a yearly sales breakdown; if you are lucky, they'll realize while typing out the numbers that they aren't going to add up. If they don't realize it, then... well, nothing you can do to help them.


missed opportunity right here, damnit. When you put it like that, it would be funny to see the ones who claim it’ll barely hit 100mil or even worse never hit it.

I mean I think everyone is in agreement that NSW will peak this year (which puts it at 77mil at minimum) but in the next 3 years even if a successor were to come out in 2023 would only ship another 23mil. I can’t wrap my head around it.

Its nowhere near guaranteed that NSW will end up at or close to 150mil lifetime but it sure as hell a better bet than saying it’ll barely hit/miss 100mil lmao