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JRPGfan on 16 July 2020
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super_etecoon said:
JRPGfan said:

Last thread of this type, I said I believe Switch will get replaced by a Switch 2,0 within 2-3 years.
And that it would thus not outsell the PS4... doing less than 130m or so, which I suspect the PS4 will end up at.
It was a thread like "will the Switch outsell the PS4", and apparently I was like the only person there actually makeing arugment for it, everyone else just said more or less "yes" or "no".

I pointed out that Nintendo systems in generally, have a better showing first half of their life cycle, and usually drop faster than other consoles towards the end. Also that other nintendo handhelds systems that sold well, were cheaper, and had people collect multiple versions of same models (or newer models), as a collection item. Something unlikely with the switch. Pointing out that something like the DS, each parent would likely buy each kid their own model, while the Switch would be more likely to be a shared unit (hooked up to a tv, 1 joycon for each kid) type of deal.

I think the Switch isn't in the same paradigm as previous Nintendo consoles, so its difficult to use past console data to define the trajectory of this one.  But, of course, you are correct about the swift deaths that previous consoles have had. But I really disagree with your bolded point.  Animal Crossing almost requires each kid to have their own Switch to be played properly, adn is one of the best selling games on the system already, only 4 months after its release.  That game alone will cause the number of Switch consoles per household to increase.  The forthcoming price cuts, whenever they arrive, will also ensure the multiple console per household ratio to increase.  It really seems you are denying this console the benefits of Nintendo's handheld successes, which is ironic considering how many people (not necesarily you) declare that the Switch is just a handheld that happens to be able to be rendered on the TV, as opposed to a console that can be taken on the go.

All that being said, you probably have the Switch numbers higher than I do, which might have to do with you being a better predicter of these things. I only take exception with your take on the limitations that you're putting on the system based upon past trends.

The DS started out at 149$ and dropped to 99$.
Switch price is high enough I feel like, the amount of people that just collect multiple version for the hell of it, will be lower, than past handheld models.
Plus Switch hasnt had the same level or amount of custum designs for games.

I personally do think Switch ends up around 100-120m, now.
However I think it ll fall just short of beating the PS4.

Those that think its going to reach 150m+ or beat the DS? I seriously doubt that.
Maybe time will prove me wrong though.