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| RolStoppable said: Looks like you have this one upside down, tbone51. It's not you who has to prove a point, it's those who predict laughably low numbers. Simply ask them to post a yearly sales breakdown; if you are lucky, they'll realize while typing out the numbers that they aren't going to add up. If they don't realize it, then... well, nothing you can do to help them. |
So true!
As soon as you put up a yearly future breakdown of sales anything close to 100m becomes laughably absurdly low.
As Tbone says, 111m is the worst case scenario that is even remotely realistic, and that doesn't even include sales after the successor launches. So likely absolute worst case scenario is more like 115 million.
Which means 125-130 million is a likely scenario (hence I voted for 130 million). I'd say over 135mil is a stretch.
So fiscal year up to March was like 55 million right? So let's think about a realistic sales scenario:
FY5 24 mil, 79 mil total.....If Nintendo actually produces enough this year to have moderate shortages but not massive shortages.
FY6 20mil: 99mil.....price cut? Botw2 if it doesn't come this holiday? another Pokemon? a premium model of Switch?
FY7 15mil: 114mil
FY8 10mil: 124mil.....switch 2 launches right at the end of FY8 - March 2024.
post-Switch 2 launch 4mil: 128mil
That's 128 million with very reasonable not overly optimistic nor overly pessimistic predictions, and actually a steeper decline than I think it'll have.
