yeah, let’s be real here... NSW isn’t the same old console like those relics in the past. It’s Nintendo’s gold mine, it’s the first unified console, it’s doing gangbusters, it’s awesome!

Now more on a serious note! I’ll point out on why it’s not coming out before 2024. I’m still going with a spring 2025 and your going to have to argue against why you think it’ll come out in 2023 or hell 2022. (2024 I’ll give you a pass)

-NSW is selling and not slowing down: people tend to say that this is the peak year and though that may be true, decline won’t rapidly go down over the next year or 2. More on that soon!!!

-NSW has a ton of software that still hasn’t come out: Yes The biggest games are now on the system, these are Zelda / 3D Mario / Splatoon / Mario Kart / Animal Crossing / Super Smash / Pokemon (new gen). So no more system sellers? Of course not. There are a ton of franchises missing, a sequels that can boost hw. 

-NSW hasn’t got a price cut yet, still can have multiple revisions. It’s peaking in its 4th calendar year (5th FY) and the lite came out sure but guess what is the model people are still flocking too? The OG model despite being $300 be $200 and that’s very very very telling.

-Competition: X1/PS4 and soon to be XSX/PS5... this is honestly the first time that they aren’t directly affecting each other but can coexist very well.

-FY5 (2020) is peaking, with weakest year software output at least to date and games could be delayed basically prolonging NSW life imo. I mean a spill effect can happen between the years 2021-2022

-Competition: oh wait I talked about this.... but forgot to mention that next gen boxes will be much more expensive and that might actually help in the Long run especially in 2021-2022 (look at japan especially) which will make NSW a more attractive console especially with the library 

-Evergreens: or should I say 4EVERGREENs because this is what the system is about. As soon as someone buys the system the library for 1st party output is so strong that it continues to ride the momentum wave. Look what’s going on with AC despite being released 3months ago.

-Bonus: third party is excellent for what Nintendo could even ask for. Yes they don’t have all the AAA games but so what? It’s an indie machine and has a bunch of good support for extra gaming than being solely a Nintendo machine.

Last let’s look at sales. Peak year right? Let’s just go with 22mil for this FY and have a major decline and go with 30% each year. You tell me if you still believe a 2022 or 2023 is likely! Prove me wrong!!!

NSW

FY1 2.74mil (launch)

FY2 15.05mil

FY3 16.95mil

FY4 21.03mil

FY5 22.00mil (77mil LTD)

FY6 15.40mil -30% YoY

FY7 10.80mil -30% YoY

FY8 7.60mil -30% YoY 

This is a big decline but even this FY8 end in 2024 spring

Here is 3DS FY vs Wii FY

FY1 3.61mil / 5.84mil

FY2 13.53mil / 18.61mil

FY3 13.95mil / 25.95mil

FY4  12.24mil / 20.53mil

FY5 8.73mil / 15.08mil

FY6 6.79mil / 9.84mil

FY7 7.27mil / Death

FY8 6.40mil

FY9 2.55mil

Does this look like switch to you?

My prediction and better estimate with FY being higher and a small decline in 2022 FY.

NSW

FY1 2.74mil (launch)

FY2 15.05mil

FY3 16.95mil

FY4 21.03mil

FY5 23.50mil (stock almost on store shelves)

FY6 19.00mil -19%YoY (new model/more aggressive deals)

FY7 14.25mil -25%YoY

FY8 10.50mil -25%YoY

FY9 7.50mil -30%YoY

RAVIOLI RAVIOLI GIVE ME THE JOHN LUCAS
i still say 300 million if they make a switch phone

Considering how long the 3DS lasted, I don't think you're too far off. I imagine there will continue to be various revisions and upgrades... but hopefully they won't call it "New Nintendo Switch" or something. I think a tiny Switch at some point is guaranteed down the line, but as far as how the main version evolves will be interesting to see.

The switch still surprises me every year. I was expecting 2022/2023 for the new console just last year. But now I think it might not come until spring 2024.

The Switch about to do 23 millions this year without a price cut and with very little communication and games. I feel like next year should not fall of 30% since they still have many big titles to come, revisions and a price cut to just try and keep it stable.

But I do think they might cut its legs short as they tend to do just so they can have a new machine sooner then later and not just live with a dying machine. But also they could do the opposite and take their time since they dont have any competition in the portable market.

I think it has a good shot at 120 millions LT

Titles like Botw 2, Mario collection, Bayonetta 3, 4G remake will bring a LOT of hype with new models, bundle, price cut or collector editions

Plausible as it was 8 years between the GB and its pro model the GBC when the brand had a monopoly now the monopoly is in play once again only now the platform is also competing in the home platform market as well. 2024 is my guess.

Eh, I think 2023 will be the year. Nintendo said in the last meeting that they were around the halfway point of their console cycle. 2024 at the latest is what I'm thinking. If Nintendo doesn't care about getting improved 3rd party support then sure, they can go all the way to 2025. But since they rely mostly on 1st Party, Indie, and some decent Japanese 3rd Party Support, I guess they'll be fine.

The only way I see it dragging into 2025 is if a hardware refresh is released in 2022 with a sizable bump in performance and other improvements.

I know Nintendo is in unprecedented waters in many ways with the Switch, but I think they'll be classic Nintendo and cut the legs out from under the Switch. Could the Switch still sell well without a replacement in 2024 or even into early 2025? Possibly.
But Nintendo cut the DS short. The DS could've outsold the PS2 (it came close to it unit total) I think had the 3DS launched in the second half of 2011 or the first half of 2022. The 3DS was rushed (high price point, lack of games) so it didn't make sense to release it in Q1 2011 anyway.
The Wii U could've also been released in holiday 2013 for better specs and better third-party support. Now I know the Wii hardware sales were really declining in 2012 (and even to some extent 2011). But I think between the DS, 3DS, and some more simple first-party games on Wii, it would've been more profitable than it already was.
So I say Spring 2023. But Holiday 2023 is nearly as likely.

What ever happened to John Lucas?

After Nintendo bailed on the Wii two years too early, I'll be pleasantly relieved if they don't leave the Switch high and dry before 2023 much less 2025.

It already feels like its running on fumes in terms of software, with only one major new game in the last 7 months and only one more confirmed for the rest of the year.

Yeah. The amount of games feels very light... So I have been gaming on other platforms, no real biggie.

In saying that... It's bloody difficult to buy a Switch here, you need to pre-order your consoles... Which is blatantly insane for a console that came out in 2017... So it's sales is definitely not on a decline at the moment.

And considering the financial hurt the entire planet is about to enter, I think Nintendo holding off on releasing a new device is probably the best thing they can do, they can leverage price to stay relevant and drive sales, being out of lock-step with Microsoft and Sony does have some benefits.

And... They have room to make multiple more variants to shift more hardware. I.E. Switch XL, Switch TV.