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Eh, I think 2023 will be the year. Nintendo said in the last meeting that they were around the halfway point of their console cycle. 2024 at the latest is what I'm thinking. If Nintendo doesn't care about getting improved 3rd party support then sure, they can go all the way to 2025. But since they rely mostly on 1st Party, Indie, and some decent Japanese 3rd Party Support, I guess they'll be fine.

The only way I see it dragging into 2025 is if a hardware refresh is released in 2022 with a sizable bump in performance and other improvements.