I only see spring 2025 happening if it would've released holiday 2024 if the pandemic never happened. Due to that happening though I think it likely will push the release date a few months ahead to make up for development delays so spring 2024 could very well be it.

If the Switch 2022 will have Orin, they will then use Atlan. So I think it will be 2024.

I'm betting on a stealth successor. First they will announce as a premium model for the Switch: better graphics and a new gimmick (dual screen returns maybe?). Then after a few years when the system got a considerable install base they'll announce exclusives and later full time support.

IMO this is the best strategy to don't cannibalize the sales and for the split software development problem.

You heard here first

When it will come you ask?

Well, I don't know how many ideas Nintendo can come with before using this Pro model/Successor to revitalize their hardware sales. So maybe between 2023 and 2025.

I originally voted Spring 2024, but at this point I'm thinking that tbone51 is right, and Switch is more likely to get a successor in 2025.  Nintendo's business side is extremely conservative.  They would have no problem selling the non-Lite models for 6 or so years at $300-$350 and then dropping the price to $250 for another couple of years if they felt they could get away with it.  (And yeah, manufacturing costs might get down to $50 or something at that price tag.)  Right now it looks like they are going to get away with doing this.

Look at tbone51's original post.  He has a conservative estimate and then what he considers to be a realistic estimate.  His "realistic" estimate had 23.5m for last fiscal year and 19m for the current fiscal year.  In reality Switch shipped 28.83 last fiscal year, and this year there is a good chance it will be up YoY.  Switch is blowing away tbone51's estimates.  He thought it would get a successor in 2025 based on those estimates and sales are going above and beyond even that.

At this point, I think all of these suggestions at a 2022-2023 launch for the Switch's successor are extremely wishful thinking.  Some people hope Nintendo will kill off it's most successful system ever while it's selling more per year than any Playstation system ever has.  Nope.  Sorry Switch haters, that's not going to happen.  Nintendo hates to throw money away like that when it's so easy for them to make.  All they have to do is nothing.  Don't release a system.  They can definitely do that.

I don't see Switch getting replaced any time soon.  I see 2025 as the most likely year for a replacement at this point.