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I know Nintendo is in unprecedented waters in many ways with the Switch, but I think they'll be classic Nintendo and cut the legs out from under the Switch. Could the Switch still sell well without a replacement in 2024 or even into early 2025? Possibly.
But Nintendo cut the DS short. The DS could've outsold the PS2 (it came close to it unit total) I think had the 3DS launched in the second half of 2011 or the first half of 2022. The 3DS was rushed (high price point, lack of games) so it didn't make sense to release it in Q1 2011 anyway.
The Wii U could've also been released in holiday 2013 for better specs and better third-party support. Now I know the Wii hardware sales were really declining in 2012 (and even to some extent 2011). But I think between the DS, 3DS, and some more simple first-party games on Wii, it would've been more profitable than it already was.
So I say Spring 2023. But Holiday 2023 is nearly as likely.
Lifetime Sales Predictions
Switch: 151 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million)
PS5: 115 million (was 105 million) Xbox Series S/X: 57 million (was 60 million, then 67 million)
PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)
3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)
"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima
