Only if they never release another game in Japan.

Seriously though, why is this even a contemplation?

Switch's last big trick in Japan is called "third party domination".  Every dev that made games for 3DS and Vita will make games for Switch.  Also most of the PS4 third party devs will also be making Switch games.  Switch is already the primary home system in Japan.  That means it's going to be the platform for most Japanese devs that were making games for the PS4.

The only reason to make a game for the PS5 is if it has a significant Western market (e.g. Final Fantasy, Resident Evil, etc...).  The vast majority of Japanese third party titles will be on Switch and many of those will be exclusives.  It doesn't make financial sense for third parties to do otherwise.  Switch is going to be the dominant platform for third parties at least until Nintendo releases a successor.

It's a gradual transition.  You can look at the top 30 games that Marth just posted.  Switch has 7 third party games and PS4 has 6.  Switch already has a slight lead.  That gap is only going to grow as PS4 gets phased out.

And then the third parties will start making switch exclusives? Yeah I doubt it. Switch will continue to get multi plat of smaller titles but in no way will it ever dominate. Also It makes 0 financial sense for third parties to make switch exclusives 

PS4 install base will be lucky to get to 10m in Japan, and PS5 install base will likely be even less.  Switch install base will be 2-4 times that.  It really makes zero financial sense for a third party to release on PS5 unless it has a significant Western market.  Everything else will be on Switch, or at the very least multiplat.

How many of those 1 billion games were sold in Japan?

Actually it is.  Most third party games made by Japanese studios are made with the Japanese market it mind.  There are actually quite a few games that never get localized outside of Japan, and even the ones that do often have Japan as the primary market.

Japanese third party games are mostly made for the Japanese.

Yep.  The few big third party games will be PS5 only or multiplat.  Switch will get a version of everything else, either exclusive or multiplat.  Switch will have most of the third party games.

Switch third party domination means chart domination.  Switch will be dominating the Japanese charts (and really it already is).  But in a couple of years Switch third party games will have even more slots than they do now.  This weeks charts looks like this:

Switch - 22 (7 of those third party)
PS4 - 7
3DS - 1

Nintendo platform games already have 77% of the chart.  They already dominate.  But Sony platforms are going to keep getting pushed out just like they have been.  Some of these remaining spots are going to Switch third party titles.  Just compare this weeks top 30 to the top 30 exactly 2 years ago:
https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8814244

At this time in 2018, the top 30 looked like this:

Switch - 12 (3 of those third party)
PS4 - 12
Vita - 5
3DS - 1

Two years ago Sony platforms had a majority of the top 30 with 57%.  Switch only had 3 third party titles.  Now Switch has 7 third party titles.  In two more years expect even more slots to be Switch third party titles.  There will not be one week in 2022 where Sony platforms get at least 7 titles.  That is third party domination.  Switch titles dominate the charts, both first party and third party titles dominate the charts.

But here is the thing about third party domination.  Even when Nintendo pulls back its first party support the third party titles will keep getting released for a few more years.  That is why third party domination is their "final trick".  We see this right now with the PS4.  PS4 hardware sales have slowed to a crawl in Japan, but we still see third party PS4 titles released on most weeks.  This is the Switch's future.  All of these small to medium size titles that would have gone to Vita or PS4 back in 2018 will be on Switch. 

We are already seeing more Switch third party titles enter the Japanese charts.  On the 2018 charts during this week we had 3 third party Switch titles compared to this week's (2020) 7 third party Switch titles.  Expect this trend to continue.

How the tables have turned.

will AC be the last trick for the switch in japan?

because if this is the last big trick it wont reach 22 million in japan

When does this third party domination start? 

And then the third parties will start making switch exclusives? Yeah I doubt it. Switch will continue to get multi plat of smaller titles but in no way will it ever dominate. Also It makes 0 financial sense for third parties to make switch exclusives 

I don't get it either.  Sony home consoles have been averaging 1 billion+ games sold for the last 25 years, 85+% 3rd party but NOW is the time they will be shying away to make Switch exclusives that have shown not to sell 3rd party software anywhere near that.

Japan isn’t the be all end all for most games. Being exclusive for any platform doesn’t make sense until someone paid them to make it. The switch still doesn’t get big third party games so I don’t see how you expect exclusive titles to start coming. It hasn’t even gotten a monster hunter yet

Big third parties games aren’t targeting just japan anymore. That explains why they aren’t on switch 

The few big?  So you're saying that the Switch "exclusives" will be games from no name publishers who have first week sales of 8k and top out at 25-30k and have no relevance outside Japan.  Sorta what the Vita got, gotcha.

You should be worrying more about how. after three years on the market, The Switch can release a game like The Outer Worlds in the shape its in than worry about which 3rd party exclusives it might be getting.

So you saying that in 2022, Sony won't have 7 games chart in a given week even though the console will be only 18 months old and we are already hearing and seeing content announced for it...this conversation is over.

will AC be the last trick for the switch in japan?

because if this is the last big trick it wont reach 22 million in japan

When does this third party domination start? 

And then the third parties will start making switch exclusives? Yeah I doubt it. Switch will continue to get multi plat of smaller titles but in no way will it ever dominate. Also It makes 0 financial sense for third parties to make switch exclusives 

I don't get it either.  Sony home consoles have been averaging 1 billion+ games sold for the last 25 years, 85+% 3rd party but NOW is the time they will be shying away to make Switch exclusives that have shown not to sell 3rd party software anywhere near that.

Japan isn’t the be all end all for most games. Being exclusive for any platform doesn’t make sense until someone paid them to make it. The switch still doesn’t get big third party games so I don’t see how you expect exclusive titles to start coming. It hasn’t even gotten a monster hunter yet

Big third parties games aren’t targeting just japan anymore. That explains why they aren’t on switch 

The few big?  So you're saying that the Switch "exclusives" will be games from no name publishers who have first week sales of 8k and top out at 25-30k and have no relevance outside Japan.  Sorta what the Vita got, gotcha.

You should be worrying more about how. after three years on the market, The Switch can release a game like The Outer Worlds in the shape its in than worry about which 3rd party exclusives it might be getting.

So you saying that in 2022, Sony won't have 7 games chart in a given week even though the console will be only 18 months old and we are already hearing and seeing content announced for it...this conversation is over.

In light of Switch's string of 30/30 weeks on the Famitsu charts, I found this old conversation to be interesting.  I hope the rest of you will enjoy it too.  (The rest of this thread has some other interesting posts, but I tried to get a continuous conversation.)

It's especially cool because of how gleeful Train wreck always was about the third party bias in favor of Sony, knowing how third parties continued to ignore market realities for many, many years while giving only scraps to Nintendo consoles, hence the Outer Worlds example.

Seven PS games in the weekly top 30 are an incredibly high bar for a single week two years later, let alone on a regular basis.

my point is still 100% correct lmao quote someone else 

These two points aren't correct anymore. There have been quite a few notable Switch exclusive games recently.