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Forums - Sales Discussion - Famitsu Sales: Week 22, 2020 (May 25 - May 31)

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Train wreck said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

Yep.  The few big third party games will be PS5 only or multiplat.  Switch will get a version of everything else, either exclusive or multiplat.  Switch will have most of the third party games.

The few big?  So you're saying that the Switch "exclusives" will be games from no name publishers who have first week sales of 8k and top out at 25-30k and have no relevance outside Japan.  Sorta what the Vita got, gotcha.

You should be worrying more about how. after three years on the market, The Switch can release a game like The Outer Worlds in the shape its in than worry about which 3rd party exclusives it might be getting.

Switch third party domination means chart domination.  Switch will be dominating the Japanese charts (and really it already is).  But in a couple of years Switch third party games will have even more slots than they do now.  This weeks charts looks like this:

Switch - 22 (7 of those third party)
PS4 - 7
3DS - 1

Nintendo platform games already have 77% of the chart.  They already dominate.  But Sony platforms are going to keep getting pushed out just like they have been.  Some of these remaining spots are going to Switch third party titles.  Just compare this weeks top 30 to the top 30 exactly 2 years ago:
https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8814244

At this time in 2018, the top 30 looked like this:

Switch - 12 (3 of those third party)
PS4 - 12
Vita - 5
3DS - 1

Two years ago Sony platforms had a majority of the top 30 with 57%.  Switch only had 3 third party titles.  Now Switch has 7 third party titles.  In two more years expect even more slots to be Switch third party titles.  There will not be one week in 2022 where Sony platforms get at least 7 titles.  That is third party domination.  Switch titles dominate the charts, both first party and third party titles dominate the charts.

But here is the thing about third party domination.  Even when Nintendo pulls back its first party support the third party titles will keep getting released for a few more years.  That is why third party domination is their "final trick".  We see this right now with the PS4.  PS4 hardware sales have slowed to a crawl in Japan, but we still see third party PS4 titles released on most weeks.  This is the Switch's future.  All of these small to medium size titles that would have gone to Vita or PS4 back in 2018 will be on Switch. 

We are already seeing more Switch third party titles enter the Japanese charts.  On the 2018 charts during this week we had 3 third party Switch titles compared to this week's (2020) 7 third party Switch titles.  Expect this trend to continue.



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MasonADC said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

It's a gradual transition.  You can look at the top 30 games that Marth just posted.  Switch has 7 third party games and PS4 has 6.  Switch already has a slight lead.  That gap is only going to grow as PS4 gets phased out.

And then the third parties will start making switch exclusives? Yeah I doubt it. Switch will continue to get multi plat of smaller titles but in no way will it ever dominate. Also It makes 0 financial sense for third parties to make switch exclusives.

So Octopath Traveller made no sense on the Switch?

The upcoming Rune Factory V and Shin Megami Tensei V don't make sense on the Switch? Any Harvest Moon or Story of Seasons game?

It would rather make no sense to make any PS4/5 exclusives if the games are only supposed to sell in Japan. It's more understandable for the WW market, but even then, the Switch has a reach pretty similar to the PS4 right now, so making a Switch version of the game wouldn't hurt. The other way around however is not true, as you would need to create new assets if you're creating a visually appealing and graphically taxing game for the Switch and want to port it to the PS5, since even the best Switch graphics will look mediocre on the PS5 without new assets.



Bofferbrauer2 said:
MasonADC said:

And then the third parties will start making switch exclusives? Yeah I doubt it. Switch will continue to get multi plat of smaller titles but in no way will it ever dominate. Also It makes 0 financial sense for third parties to make switch exclusives.

So Octopath Traveller made no sense on the Switch?

The upcoming Rune Factory V and Shin Megami Tensei V don't make sense on the Switch? Any Harvest Moon or Story of Seasons game?

It would rather make no sense to make any PS4/5 exclusives if the games are only supposed to sell in Japan. It's more understandable for the WW market, but even then, the Switch has a reach pretty similar to the PS4 right now, so making a Switch version of the game wouldn't hurt. The other way around however is not true, as you would need to create new assets if you're creating a visually appealing and graphically taxing game for the Switch and want to port it to the PS5, since even the best Switch graphics will look mediocre on the PS5 without new assets.

No they make no sense. Octopath has already been ported to PC, it should’ve been on there from the start. Very few games that mean something are only suppose to sell in japan 



The_Liquid_Laser said:
Train wreck said:

The few big?  So you're saying that the Switch "exclusives" will be games from no name publishers who have first week sales of 8k and top out at 25-30k and have no relevance outside Japan.  Sorta what the Vita got, gotcha.

You should be worrying more about how. after three years on the market, The Switch can release a game like The Outer Worlds in the shape its in than worry about which 3rd party exclusives it might be getting.

Switch third party domination means chart domination.  Switch will be dominating the Japanese charts (and really it already is).  But in a couple of years Switch third party games will have even more slots than they do now.  This weeks charts looks like this:

Switch - 22 (7 of those third party)
PS4 - 7
3DS - 1

Nintendo platform games already have 77% of the chart.  They already dominate.  But Sony platforms are going to keep getting pushed out just like they have been.  Some of these remaining spots are going to Switch third party titles.  Just compare this weeks top 30 to the top 30 exactly 2 years ago:
https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8814244

At this time in 2018, the top 30 looked like this:

Switch - 12 (3 of those third party)
PS4 - 12
Vita - 5
3DS - 1

Two years ago Sony platforms had a majority of the top 30 with 57%.  Switch only had 3 third party titles.  Now Switch has 7 third party titles.  In two more years expect even more slots to be Switch third party titles.  There will not be one week in 2022 where Sony platforms get at least 7 titles.  That is third party domination.  Switch titles dominate the charts, both first party and third party titles dominate the charts.

But here is the thing about third party domination.  Even when Nintendo pulls back its first party support the third party titles will keep getting released for a few more years.  That is why third party domination is their "final trick".  We see this right now with the PS4.  PS4 hardware sales have slowed to a crawl in Japan, but we still see third party PS4 titles released on most weeks.  This is the Switch's future.  All of these small to medium size titles that would have gone to Vita or PS4 back in 2018 will be on Switch. 

We are already seeing more Switch third party titles enter the Japanese charts.  On the 2018 charts during this week we had 3 third party Switch titles compared to this week's (2020) 7 third party Switch titles.  Expect this trend to continue.

So you saying that in 2022, Sony won't have 7 games chart in a given week even though the console will be only 18 months old and we are already hearing and seeing content announced for it...this conversation is over.



Bandai & Square leading 3rd Party Publishers on Switch

For the Switch expect that Captain Tsubasa will sell at least 500K on the system. It's these types of games that people are underestimating and it's this type of game that would eventually be the first Japanese 3rd Party publisher to have a 1M seller on the Switch in Japan. So Bandai does have a AA follow up to Fishing Spirits & Taiko which will both eventually sell over 500K physical as well. 

Bravely Default 2 will probably end up the best selling game in the franchise in Japan. How high is the potential? I'd say DQXIS level, so another game with a chance of passing 500K. There are only 8 Games on the PS4 that sold over 500K.. So when talking about success for Japanese 3rd Parties, Switch is already successful based on their output. I mean outside of Yo-kai Watch everything else has seen growth compared to prior entries. 

They haven't invested huge amounts into games like Captain Tsubasa, Taiko, Fishing Spirits, Bravely Default 2 yet all those games are set to be pretty successful. At this point, any game from Dragon Ball or Dragon Quest franchise missing the Switch is almost impossible. 

Microsoft/Square/Bandai Top 25

  1. Minecraft (Microsoft) - 1.399.850
  2. Dragon Quest XI S (SE) - 522.970
  3. Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum 'N' Fun! (BN) - 475.437
  4. Fishing Spirits (BN) - 440.969
  5. Dragon Quest Builders 2 (SE) - 295.237
  6. Octopath Traveller (SE) -193.780
  7. Dragon Ball: Xenoverse 2 (BN) - 181.090
  8. Disney Tsum Tsum Festival (BN) - 149.562
  9. Super Dragon Ball Heroes: World Mission (BN) - 145.720
  10. One Piece: Pirate Warriors 4 (BN) - 114.388
  11. Doraemon: Story of Seasons (BN) - 112.104
  12. Pro Baseball Famista Evolution (BN) - 110.954
  13. Dragon Ball FighterZ (BN) - 92.697
  14. Trials of Mana (SE) - 96.809
  15. Go Vacation (BN) - 80.842
  16. Dragon Quest Builders (SE) - 74.772
  17. Dragon Quest Heroes I & II (SE) - 64.404
  18. SD Gundam G Generation Cross Rays (BN) - 60.173
  19. Super Robot Wars T (BN) - 53.810
  20. Final Fantasy X/X-2 HD Remaster (SE) - 52.670
  21. My Hero Academia: One's Justice (BN) - 52.350
  22. Chocobo's Mystery Dungeon: Every Buddy! (SE) - 52.098
  23. Final Fantasy XII: The Zodiac Age (SE) - 48.348
  24. Chou Tousouchuu & Chou Sentouchuu Double Pack (BN) - 47.831
  25. One Piece: Pirate Warriors 3 - Deluxe Edition (BN) - 45.029

Rest of Japanese 3rd Party support is lackluster 

The problem is simply the lack of successful games from the likes of Level-5, Sega, Koei Tecmo, Capcom, Atlas.. 

When looking at their output so far it's not suprising:

Top 25 without Bandai, Microsoft, Square

  1. Yo-kai Watch 4 (Level 5) - 358.356
  2. Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games Tokyo 2020 (Sega) - 312.574
  3. Monster Hunter Generations Ultimate (Capcom) - 309.596
  4. Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball (Konami) - 225.614
  5. Super Bomberman R (Konami) - 215.218
  6. Mario + Rabbids: Kingdom Battle (Ubisoft) - 213.453
  7. Story of Seasons: Friends of Mineral Town (Marvelous) - 146.363
  8. FIFA 18 (EA) - 122.998
  9. Fitness Boxing (Imagineer) - 110.521
  10. The Snack World: TreJarers Gold (Level 5) - 109.955
  11. FIFA 19 (EA) - 89.875
  12. Olympic Games Tokyo 2020: The Official Video Game (Sega) - 87.370
  13. Sumikko Gurashi (Nippon Columbia) - 84.957
  14. Puyo Puyo Tetris S (Sega) - 83.433
  15. Attack on Titan 2 (Koei Tecmo) - 80.471
  16. Hatsune Miku: Project Diva MegaMix (Sega) - 78.558
  17. Persona 5 Scramble (Atlus) - 65.653
  18. Fire Emblem Warriors (Koei Tecmo) - 64.747
  19. Rune Factory 4 Special (Marvelous) - 62.412
  20. FIFA 20 (EA) - 56.886
  21. Hyrule Warriors: Definitive Edition (Koei Tecmo) - 54.021
  22. Daemon x Machina (Marvelous) - 49.099
  23. Attack on Titan 2: Final Battle (Koei Tecmo) - 48.904
  24. Warriors Orochi 4 (Koei Tecmo) - 47.608
  25. The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim (Bethesda) - 44.996

Top 15 Publishers(Top 50 3rd Party Titles)

  1. Bandai Namco - 2.162.956
  2. Microsoft - 1.399.850
  3. Square Enix - 1.381.941
  4. Sega - 561.935
  5. Level 5 - 468.311
  6. Konami - 440.832
  7. Capcom - 309.596
  8. Koei Tecmo - 295.751
  9. EA - 269.759
  10. Marvelous - 257.874
  11. Ubisoft - 213.453
  12. Imagineer - 110.521
  13. Nippon Columbia - 84.957
  14. Atlus - 65.653
  15. Bethesda - 44.996

  • Sega has a Nintendo branded Olympics game
  • Level 5 who went from selling millions on the 3DS to pretty much being a nonfactor
  • To me, it's crazy that Konami has outsold Capcom, Koei Tecmo, Atlus with just two games
  • Capcom's last million-selling games on Nintendo ecosystems was Monster Hunter XX back in 2017 - 1.7M
  • 3 Years of basically nothing major from a lot of these companies means that they've missed millions of potential sales 
  • In the meantime Square, Bandai, Microsoft, Marvelous and indies were able to cultivate an audience 
  • Atlus is the one that I would say is the greatest hit by this, as Capcom at least has a massively successful MHW launch on the PS4
  • Koei Tecmo need to try to branch out of the warrior's formula... maybe try something slightly different


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noshten said:

Bandai & Square leading 3rd Party Publishers on Switch

For the Switch expect that Captain Tsubasa will sell at least 500K on the system. It's these types of games that people are underestimating and it's this type of game that would eventually be the first Japanese 3rd Party publisher to have a 1M seller on the Switch in Japan. So Bandai does have a AA follow up to Fishing Spirits & Taiko which will both eventually sell over 500K physical as well. 

Bravely Default 2 will probably end up the best selling game in the franchise in Japan. How high is the potential? I'd say DQXIS level, so another game with a chance of passing 500K. There are only 8 Games on the PS4 that sold over 500K.. So when talking about success for Japanese 3rd Parties, Switch is already successful based on their output. I mean outside of Yo-kai Watch everything else has seen growth compared to prior entries. 

They haven't invested huge amounts into games like Captain Tsubasa, Taiko, Fishing Spirits, Bravely Default 2 yet all those games are set to be pretty successful. At this point, any game from Dragon Ball or Dragon Quest franchise missing the Switch is almost impossible. 

Microsoft/Square/Bandai Top 25

  1. Minecraft (Microsoft) - 1.399.850
  2. Dragon Quest XI S (SE) - 522.970
  3. Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum 'N' Fun! (BN) - 475.437
  4. Fishing Spirits (BN) - 440.969
  5. Dragon Quest Builders 2 (SE) - 295.237
  6. Octopath Traveller (SE) -193.780
  7. Dragon Ball: Xenoverse 2 (BN) - 181.090
  8. Disney Tsum Tsum Festival (BN) - 149.562
  9. Super Dragon Ball Heroes: World Mission (BN) - 145.720
  10. One Piece: Pirate Warriors 4 (BN) - 114.388
  11. Doraemon: Story of Seasons (BN) - 112.104
  12. Pro Baseball Famista Evolution (BN) - 110.954
  13. Dragon Ball FighterZ (BN) - 92.697
  14. Trials of Mana (SE) - 96.809
  15. Go Vacation (BN) - 80.842
  16. Dragon Quest Builders (SE) - 74.772
  17. Dragon Quest Heroes I & II (SE) - 64.404
  18. SD Gundam G Generation Cross Rays (BN) - 60.173
  19. Super Robot Wars T (BN) - 53.810
  20. Final Fantasy X/X-2 HD Remaster (SE) - 52.670
  21. My Hero Academia: One's Justice (BN) - 52.350
  22. Chocobo's Mystery Dungeon: Every Buddy! (SE) - 52.098
  23. Final Fantasy XII: The Zodiac Age (SE) - 48.348
  24. Chou Tousouchuu & Chou Sentouchuu Double Pack (BN) - 47.831
  25. One Piece: Pirate Warriors 3 - Deluxe Edition (BN) - 45.029

Rest of Japanese 3rd Party support is lackluster 

The problem is simply the lack of successful games from the likes of Level-5, Sega, Koei Tecmo, Capcom, Atlas.. 

When looking at their output so far it's not suprising:

Top 25 without Bandai, Microsoft, Square

  1. Yo-kai Watch 4 (Level 5) - 358.356
  2. Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games Tokyo 2020 (Sega) - 312.574
  3. Monster Hunter Generations Ultimate (Capcom) - 309.596
  4. Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball (Konami) - 225.614
  5. Super Bomberman R (Konami) - 215.218
  6. Mario + Rabbids: Kingdom Battle (Ubisoft) - 213.453
  7. Story of Seasons: Friends of Mineral Town (Marvelous) - 146.363
  8. FIFA 18 (EA) - 122.998
  9. Fitness Boxing (Imagineer) - 110.521
  10. The Snack World: TreJarers Gold (Level 5) - 109.955
  11. FIFA 19 (EA) - 89.875
  12. Olympic Games Tokyo 2020: The Official Video Game (Sega) - 87.370
  13. Sumikko Gurashi (Nippon Columbia) - 84.957
  14. Puyo Puyo Tetris S (Sega) - 83.433
  15. Attack on Titan 2 (Koei Tecmo) - 80.471
  16. Hatsune Miku: Project Diva MegaMix (Sega) - 78.558
  17. Persona 5 Scramble (Atlus) - 65.653
  18. Fire Emblem Warriors (Koei Tecmo) - 64.747
  19. Rune Factory 4 Special (Marvelous) - 62.412
  20. FIFA 20 (EA) - 56.886
  21. Hyrule Warriors: Definitive Edition (Koei Tecmo) - 54.021
  22. Daemon x Machina (Marvelous) - 49.099
  23. Attack on Titan 2: Final Battle (Koei Tecmo) - 48.904
  24. Warriors Orochi 4 (Koei Tecmo) - 47.608
  25. The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim (Bethesda) - 44.996

Top 15 Publishers(Top 50 3rd Party Titles)

  1. Bandai Namco - 2.162.956
  2. Microsoft - 1.399.850
  3. Square Enix - 1.381.941
  4. Sega - 561.935
  5. Level 5 - 468.311
  6. Konami - 440.832
  7. Capcom - 309.596
  8. Koei Tecmo - 295.751
  9. EA - 269.759
  10. Marvelous - 257.874
  11. Ubisoft - 213.453
  12. Imagineer - 110.521
  13. Nippon Columbia - 84.957
  14. Atlus - 65.653
  15. Bethesda - 44.996

  • Sega has a Nintendo branded Olympics game
  • Level 5 who went from selling millions on the 3DS to pretty much being a nonfactor
  • To me, it's crazy that Konami has outsold Capcom, Koei Tecmo, Atlus with just two games
  • Capcom's last million-selling games on Nintendo ecosystems was Monster Hunter XX back in 2017 - 1.7M
  • 3 Years of basically nothing major from a lot of these companies means that they've missed millions of potential sales 
  • In the meantime Square, Bandai, Microsoft, Marvelous and indies were able to cultivate an audience 
  • Atlus is the one that I would say is the greatest hit by this, as Capcom at least has a massively successful MHW launch on the PS4
  • Koei Tecmo need to try to branch out of the warrior's formula... maybe try something slightly different

Mario + Rabbids got published by Nintendo in Japan.



MasonADC said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

So Octopath Traveller made no sense on the Switch?

The upcoming Rune Factory V and Shin Megami Tensei V don't make sense on the Switch? Any Harvest Moon or Story of Seasons game?

It would rather make no sense to make any PS4/5 exclusives if the games are only supposed to sell in Japan. It's more understandable for the WW market, but even then, the Switch has a reach pretty similar to the PS4 right now, so making a Switch version of the game wouldn't hurt. The other way around however is not true, as you would need to create new assets if you're creating a visually appealing and graphically taxing game for the Switch and want to port it to the PS5, since even the best Switch graphics will look mediocre on the PS5 without new assets.

No they make no sense. Octopath has already been ported to PC, it should’ve been on there from the start. Very few games that mean something are only suppose to sell in japan 

If those don't make sense, then there's no way you can defend games like Monster Hunter or Persona not being on the Switch, as that makes even less sense.



Bofferbrauer2 said:
MasonADC said:

No they make no sense. Octopath has already been ported to PC, it should’ve been on there from the start. Very few games that mean something are only suppose to sell in japan 

If those don't make sense, then there's no way you can defend games like Monster Hunter or Persona not being on the Switch, as that makes even less sense.

...yeah? I never said they shouldn’t be on switch. Unless background deals are being made, it really doesn’t make any sense



PlayStation 4 Square Enix Top 10

  1. Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age - 1.368.698
  2. Final Fantasy XV - 1.042.951
  3. Final Fantasy VII Remake - 919.287
  4. Kingdom Hearts III - 861.226
  5. NieR: Automata - 467.485
  6. Dragon Quest Heroes: The World Tree's - 329.934
  7. Kingdom Hearts HD I.5 + II.5 - 293.248
  8. Dragon Quest Heroes II - 280.542
  9. Dragon Quest Builders 2 - 224.738
  10. Dragon Quest Builders - 213.581

TOTAL: 6.001.690

PlayStation 4 CAPCOM Top 10

  1. Monster Hunter: World - 2.524.060
  2. Monster Hunter: World - Iceborne - 516.285
  3. Resident Evil 2 - 403.833
  4. Resident Evil 7: biohazard - 365.896
  5. Devil May Cry V - 189.121
  6. Street Fighter V - 85.821
  7. Resident Evil: Revelations 2 - 69.494
  8. Resident Evil 6 - 54.255
  9. Devil May Cry 4: Special Edition - 49.934
  10. Mega Man X Legacy Collection - 48.118

TOTAL: 4.306.817

PlayStation 4 Konami Top 10

  1. Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain - 448.554
  2. Pro Baseball Spirits 2019 - 259.227
  3. Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball 2018 - 255.850
  4. Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball 2016 - 208.867
  5. Winning Eleven 2019 - 182.539
  6. Winning Eleven 2018 - 171.449
  7. Winning Eleven 2017 - 158.066
  8. Metal Gear Solid V: Ground Zeroes - 151.860
  9. eFootball Winning Eleven 2020 - 126.109
  10. Winning Eleven 2016 - 86.247

TOTAL: 2.048.768

PlayStation 4 SEGA Top 10

  1. Yakuza 6: The Song of Life - 367.965
  2. Judgement - 284.001
  3. Yakuza 7: Like a Dragon - 243.769
  4. Yakuza: Kiwami 2 - 202.817
  5. Fist of the North Star: Lost Paradise - 179.315
  6. Shin Sakura Wars - 166.771
  7. Yakuza: Kiwami - 150.703
  8. Yakuza 0 - 144.798
  9. Yakuza: Ishin! - 129.536
  10. Valkyria Chronicles 4 - 69.500

TOTAL: 1.939.175

PlayStation 4 Bandai Namco Top 10

  1. Tales of Berseria - 220.719
  2. Ace Combat 7: Skies Unknown - 220.195
  3. God Eater 3 - 203.554
  4. Gundam Versus - 175.581
  5. Sword Art Online: Fatal Bullet - 152.572
  6. Dragon Ball Z: Kakarot - 149.654
  7. Jump Force - 130.293
  8. Super Robot Wars V - 128.945
  9. Dragon Ball: Xenoverse 2 - 128.086
  10. Super Robot Wars X - 112.753

TOTAL: 1.622.622

Just a quick comparison with what the biggest 3rd Party Japanese Companies have released on the PS4



3rd Party Top 10 on PS4

  1. Square Enix - 6M
  2. Capcom - 4.3M
  3. Konami - 2.04M
  4. Sega - 1.93M
  5. Bandai Namco - 1.62M
  6. From Software(w Bloodborne) - 1.16M
  7. Atlas  - 1.13M
  8. Koei Tecmo - 1.04M
  9. D3 Publisher - 478K
  10. Nihon Falcom - 450K

TOTAL: 20.1M

3rd Party Top 10 on PS3

  1. Capcom - 5.36M
  2. Square Enix - 5.08M
  3. Bandai Namco - 4.99M
  4. Konami - 4.67M
  5. Koei Tecmo - 3.87M
  6. Sega - 3.84M
  7. From Software - 1.61M
  8. Atlas - 806K
  9. Gust - 758K
  10. D3 Publisher - 486K

TOTAL - 31.45M

3rd Party Top 10 on 3DS

  1. Capcom - 14.16M
  2. Level 5 - 13.5M
  3. Square Enix - 7.55M
  4. Bandai Namco - 3.85M
  5. Gung Ho - 2.12M
  6. Atlas - 1.42M
  7. Marvelous - 1.31M
  8. Sega - 1.1M
  9. Mixi - 968K
  10. Koei Tecmo - 595K

TOTAL: 46.56M