Yeah, I don't think Nintendo needs a big game this holiday since MK and AC are already doing the heavy lifting.

Even if true, a couple of Mario remasters aren't going to keep the second half of the year up YOY when 2019 got Luigi's Mansion 3, Pokemon, Lite, etc.

If Switch is going to remain up YOY it will need big new games in June-Dec beyond just the rumored Paper Mario.

To give an idea of how long Mario Kart can sell for. Nintendo reported in October 2019 that Mario Kart Wii sold 40,000 units in the first two fiscal quarters.

20mil shipped for the FY20.... the advantage here for This FY compared to the last 2 FY is that Nintendo needs to have ship and stuff the channels. Let’s take a look at what we know of sell thru vs shipped to paint a better picture here

-Nintendo had 52.5mil shipped by end of 2019. Sell thru was over 48mil. After W1 huge global sales I’m guessing roughly 3.8mil-4.0mil were on store shelves. (Let’s say 3mil for a nice number)

-Q4 shipped 3.3mil right? Well sell thru was way higher than this meaning a lot of the extra units hanging around the stores got sold out. This is what FY20 has to deal with. Not only is Q1 selling what they ship, they need to have a healthy amount of consoles in retail stores.

-Q1 like I said has AC driving it with XC and some third party end of May. The problem won’t be fully solved this quarter which already should be way ahead of previous avg for NSW shipments

-Q2 should start fixing the problem if everything goes right and this is the quarter if not especially the next to fill up as much as possible to retailers (*note doesn’t have to be sell thru as stores will need stock again especially Japan)

-Q3 where I believe most shipments will finally be up from shortages as well as good software (can be a 1-2combo of Mario collection/Paper Mario/etc). even if down this quarter the other 2 quarters should make up for it imo

-Evergreens are literally keeping this system afloat, AC as everybody has seen and even the sleeper hit RFA will still provide healthy sales despite no new software intill at least end of summer imo

Also I think some are underestimating how big a 3D collection would be... SM3DWD I’m not sure but if a collection of sunshine/64/galaxy are true that easily a 10mil seller. Sm64 DS did over 10mil

Paper Mario, evergreens, and remasters of old games aren't enough, not compared to mainline Pokemon + hardware revision in 2019. 

For a 21 millions plus year, you need multiple big system sellers throughout.

A traditional Paper Mario coupled with 3D Mario remasters would be more than enough to keep Switch up YOY especially since it is coming in to this holiday season with so much more momentum than last year thanks to Animal Crossing.

I wouldn't necessarily bet on the momentum carrying that far.  Not yet, though it might.  More helpful will be the YOY advantage it will pick up in FY Q1, which should cushion a possible drop in late Q2 and Q3.  

Nintendo does have two big strategies they've only dabbled in:  big bundles and a price cut.  I could see Nintendo pondering those if they feel like the COVID-19 disruptions are going to cause too many issues in their schedule for late 2020 and early 2021.  

The Holiday for Switch last year was absurd though, it would take some BIG guns to top that.  You don't get a 2 million December on "momentum" alone.

We also have to ask though, if Nintendo are already projecting to be down YOY, will they be willing to cut into profits just to say they beat last years hardware units? I think its more valuable for people putting bets on this forum, then it is for Nintendo. Price cuts will come when they're needed, a 19m year, down from 21m doesn't seem like that kinda situation imo

Agreed.  But I was referring to a scenario where it was looking worse than they expected, so perhaps a sub 19 mil projection.  Unlikely as it may seem now with the Switch riding such extreme momentum, a lot can change in six months.  Still, agree it is unlikely.