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tbone51 on 11 May 2020
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curl-6 said:
tbone51 said:

Second half of 2019 didn’t have supply issue and needing of a lot of stock. That’s a big part of it imo. Those games can keep up the momentum with possible good bundles this season. Out of all the years I’ve seen, this is one that doesn’t need as much software. Besides the Mario ports/remasters if true are big games. Add in another color or 2 for the lite, ring fit adventure that is still selling systems and is also need of more supply. 2020 isn’t going to be a bad year despite not having that huge seller like SSB or Pokémon this year (excluding AC in the beginning)

Even if true, a couple of Mario remasters aren't going to keep the second half of the year up YOY when 2019 got Luigi's Mansion 3, Pokemon, Lite, etc.

If Switch is going to remain up YOY it will need big new games in June-Dec beyond just the rumored Paper Mario.

20mil shipped for the FY20.... the advantage here for This FY compared to the last 2 FY is that Nintendo needs to have ship and stuff the channels. Let’s take a look at what we know of sell thru vs shipped to paint a better picture here

-Nintendo had 52.5mil shipped by end of 2019. Sell thru was over 48mil. After W1 huge global sales I’m guessing roughly 3.8mil-4.0mil were on store shelves. (Let’s say 3mil for a nice number)

-Q4 shipped 3.3mil right? Well sell thru was way higher than this meaning a lot of the extra units hanging around the stores got sold out. This is what FY20 has to deal with. Not only is Q1 selling what they ship, they need to have a healthy amount of consoles in retail stores.

-Q1 like I said has AC driving it with XC and some third party end of May. The problem won’t be fully solved this quarter which already should be way ahead of previous avg for NSW shipments

-Q2 should start fixing the problem if everything goes right and this is the quarter if not especially the next to fill up as much as possible to retailers (*note doesn’t have to be sell thru as stores will need stock again especially Japan)

-Q3 where I believe most shipments will finally be up from shortages as well as good software (can be a 1-2combo of Mario collection/Paper Mario/etc). even if down this quarter the other 2 quarters should make up for it imo

-Evergreens are literally keeping this system afloat, AC as everybody has seen and even the sleeper hit RFA will still provide healthy sales despite no new software intill at least end of summer imo