Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Nintendo quarterly results May 7th 2020 - Switch: 55.77m, (21m for the FY) Animal Crossing: 11.77m

zorg1000 said:
curl-6 said:

Evergreens aren't enough to keep a console selling more than 20m a year. They have great momentum now, but if they don't have big games for the second half of 2020 that momentum will slow and they'll be down YOY substantially when we get to the latter months of the year when the likes of Pokemon and Switch Lite hit in 2019.

Kinda reminds me of Media Create threads in early 2018. PS4 was up over 40% YoY in Q1 thanks to the huge boost Monster Hunter World gave it and some people thought that boost would last the entire year. PS4 ended the year down about 4% YoY.

Switch has a big YoY lead now and has momentum but if they arent able to get major 1st party titles out in the Summer/Fall than that momentum will disappear.

I agree big games will definitely be needed, especially during the holiday season although maybe not so much during summer if the pandemic continues like it is.

A lot of folks will want to stay home for the most part and especially keep their kids away from unnecessary crowds. They'll nee to be entertained somehow and video games can fill that void. As was seen in March and reportedly in April. The pandemic is helping sales to an extent.



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zorg1000 said:
curl-6 said:

Evergreens aren't enough to keep a console selling more than 20m a year. They have great momentum now, but if they don't have big games for the second half of 2020 that momentum will slow and they'll be down YOY substantially when we get to the latter months of the year when the likes of Pokemon and Switch Lite hit in 2019.

Kinda reminds me of Media Create threads in early 2018. PS4 was up over 40% YoY in Q1 thanks to the huge boost Monster Hunter World gave it and some people thought that boost would last the entire year. PS4 ended the year down about 4% YoY.

Switch has a big YoY lead now and has momentum but if they arent able to get major 1st party titles out in the Summer/Fall than that momentum will disappear.

So who are you agreeing with here? It sounds like you are with curl-6 despite your logical reasoning aligning with tbone51.

tbone isn't aiming for a boost, but rather pointing out that a 5% decline for the fiscal year still amounts to 20m.

Also worth pointing out, we are more or less at the worst point of the corona crisis and Nintendo does not expect delays to their own software at the moment, hence why they said in their Q&A that the forecasts assume that upcoming first party titles will be launched as planned.



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Switch will outsell the NES this FY
And get very close to the 3DS.

3DS is currently 20M ahead and will add less than 400k to that this FY.
Switch would need a 20.5M FY so it will probably end up slightly below the 3DS by March 2021



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brute said:
zorg1000 said:

Kinda reminds me of Media Create threads in early 2018. PS4 was up over 40% YoY in Q1 thanks to the huge boost Monster Hunter World gave it and some people thought that boost would last the entire year. PS4 ended the year down about 4% YoY.

Switch has a big YoY lead now and has momentum but if they arent able to get major 1st party titles out in the Summer/Fall than that momentum will disappear.

I agree big games will definitely be needed, especially during the holiday season although maybe not so much during summer if the pandemic continues like it is.

A lot of folks will want to stay home for the most part and especially keep their kids away from unnecessary crowds. They'll nee to be entertained somehow and video games can fill that void. As was seen in March and reportedly in April. The pandemic is helping sales to an extent.

Yeah the summer months should be fine without anything major but September onward will need something.

Last year Lite+Link's Awakening+Luigi's Mansion+Ring Fit+Pokemon Sword/Shield all released within a 2 month window in the fall leading to an amazing holiday.



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zorg1000 said:
brute said:

I agree big games will definitely be needed, especially during the holiday season although maybe not so much during summer if the pandemic continues like it is.

A lot of folks will want to stay home for the most part and especially keep their kids away from unnecessary crowds. They'll nee to be entertained somehow and video games can fill that void. As was seen in March and reportedly in April. The pandemic is helping sales to an extent.

Yeah the summer months should be fine without anything major but September onward will need something.

Last year Lite+Link's Awakening+Luigi's Mansion+Ring Fit+Pokemon Sword/Shield all released within a 2 month window in the fall leading to an amazing holiday.

Aug- SM3DWD

Sept-Surprise Game

Oct-Paper Mario

Nov- Mario 3D Collection (64/Sunshine/Galaxy1)

Dec-Pikmin 3

That would be alright granted whatever extra game it will be. Then next year we can have a much better software year, something like 2017 maybe



Yeah I think sales will slow in the Fall if they don't have major releases or a price cut considering the two new systems launching will get a lot of attention of consumers and people aren't gonna buy it in droves during the holidays if the last huge game was released in March. If they don't have any really major releases for the Fall I'm sure they could at least put together some desired ports/remasters and even if they don't do a discount I could see this year being the first holiday seasons where they majorly promote bundles, and they'll probably have at least a couple smaller new games like a Ring Fit, and that's all worst case scenario, in which case they'll probably still do like 19 million.

But who knows maybe they'll still pull out BotW2 for the holidays and it'll be a huge year.



Good to see Switch numbers got adjusted up 200k on the front page chart. Though given the huge discrepancy between Nintendo's numbers and VGC numbers I woulda thought they would have adjusted up by like half a million.



The rumored Paper Mario and old ports/remasters/remakes alone won't be enough to keep Switch up YOY I reckon. It'll take more than that to counterbalance the avalanche of games they got in the second half of 2019 plus the Lite.

Hopefully they can deliver more for June-December than that.

Slownenberg said:
Good to see Switch numbers got adjusted up 200k on the front page chart. Though given the huge discrepancy between Nintendo's numbers and VGC numbers I woulda thought they would have adjusted up by like half a million.

Are we sure that's an adjustment and not an estimate of last week's numbers?



The Switch will probably be fine this year with Mario Kart and Animal Crossing.