Once again, with only knowing Paper Mario in July, we have a forecast of 19mil for 2021 FY. Will it make it with just rumored ports and a collection? Maybe just 1 big game, or several mid tier size ones?
Let’s take a look at what we know this quarter so far....
-2020 FY Q1 shipped around 2.19mil consoles
-Almost all NSW shipped is sold out completely end of March, Confirmed for japan and mostly US
-Europe as a whole is seeing hardware sales go up YoY, granted we don’t know how much but this is important to note.
-Japan sold thru 739k with 3 weeks left. Estimates for 950k-1mil for the quarter up from 530k last year
-US break records, May did 520k+ and April 800k+, if june does something similar in the US alone could be 2mil shipped for the quarter.
5mil is a possibility with 4mil-4.5mil+ practically guaranteed at this point.
Q2 is already heading for a massive quarter that supply isn’t even met yet. Japan still doing lotteries but with healthier shipments it could be up way over 1mil.
By this logic and with only Paper Mario and maybe 2 First party games (pikmin3D and/or Mario 3D Collection) it’s crazy to say but....
We could possibly see 10mil by end of Sept which is well over 50% of 19mil forecast.
Without any big games it can easily do 20mil but with great software, and more better shipments there is a possibility of 25mil for FY