So any1 still doubt 19mil even without big games or knowing the schedule? Q1 possibly can be over 4mil if they made enough which would put it nearly double of the highest previous Q1 (2.13mil in 2019)

Also to note, stock issues in US as demand isn’t settled yet and it’s 100x worse in japan as they will be with shortages intill the very least Aug/Sept

3DW was a good game in isolation but not up to par with the 3D Mario standard, it really lacked ambition and creativity, I'd much prefer Odyssey 2 or Galaxy 3.

That means it has the most potential for growth, I would like to see a new multiplayer 3D Mario.

I dunno, I think designing for 4 players in 3D is always going to limit the level design and make for a less than ideal single player experience, so I'd rather something designed foremost as a solo adventure.

I don't mind if it doesn't tackle challenging platforming, I just found the levels a lot more engaging thanks to the gravity antics in Galaxy's case and the exploration and Capture mechanics of Odyssey. With both it always felt like something cool, clever and novel was always around the next corner. 3D World was a more straightforward obstacle course, which is fine, and it's still good, but it didn't capture the imagination and sense of discovery in the same way.

Once again, with only knowing Paper Mario in July, we have a forecast of 19mil for 2021 FY. Will it make it with just rumored ports and a collection? Maybe just 1 big game, or several mid tier size ones?

Let’s take a look at what we know this quarter so far....

-2020 FY Q1 shipped around 2.19mil consoles

-Almost all NSW shipped is sold out completely end of March, Confirmed for japan and mostly US

-Europe as a whole is seeing hardware sales go up YoY, granted we don’t know how much but this is important to note.

-Japan sold thru 739k with 3 weeks left. Estimates for 950k-1mil for the quarter up from 530k last year

-US break records, May did 520k+ and April 800k+, if june does something similar in the US alone could be 2mil shipped for the quarter.

5mil is a possibility with 4mil-4.5mil+ practically guaranteed at this point.

Q2 is already heading for a massive quarter that supply isn’t even met yet. Japan still doing lotteries but with healthier shipments it could be up way over 1mil.


By this logic and with only Paper Mario and maybe 2 First party games (pikmin3D and/or Mario 3D Collection) it’s crazy to say but....

We could possibly see 10mil by end of Sept which is well over 50% of 19mil forecast.

Without any big games it can easily do 20mil but with great software, and more better shipments there is a possibility of 25mil for FY

Do you think Nintendo's holding big titles because they don't have enough switch on shelve?

Not at all, they still need to have software out. Only reason why we don’t have info is because of everything going on. Paper Mario is proof of that, being released 2months after the announcement. I expect random announcements in July+Aug for rest of the years lineup. Nintendo has to carefully see what’s going to make the cut. Hard times to work now

i was just saying without and big games, Nintendo is on track to hit 19mil which when you think about is insane.