Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Nintendo quarterly results May 7th 2020 - Switch: 55.77m, (21m for the FY) Animal Crossing: 11.77m

curl-6 said:

The rumored Paper Mario and old ports/remasters/remakes alone won't be enough to keep Switch up YOY I reckon. It'll take more than that to counterbalance the avalanche of games they got in the second half of 2019 plus the Lite.

Hopefully they can deliver more for June-December than that.

Second half of 2019 didn’t have supply issue and needing of a lot of stock. That’s a big part of it imo. Those games can keep up the momentum with possible good bundles this season. Out of all the years I’ve seen, this is one that doesn’t need as much software. Besides the Mario ports/remasters if true are big games. Add in another color or 2 for the lite, ring fit adventure that is still selling systems and is also need of more supply. 2020 isn’t going to be a bad year despite not having that huge seller like SSB or Pokémon this year (excluding AC in the beginning)



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Farsala said:
The Switch will probably be fine this year with Mario Kart and Animal Crossing.

All the evergreens will keep it afloat in Q1 with AC in the March (no pun intended) Q2 will be a continuation of that intill everything gets resolved. Then start bringing the software in July/aug and hopefully spread out the end of Q2/Q3 with the good software and new colors/bundles



tbone51 said:
Farsala said:
The Switch will probably be fine this year with Mario Kart and Animal Crossing.

All the evergreens will keep it afloat in Q1 with AC in the March (no pun intended) Q2 will be a continuation of that intill everything gets resolved. Then start bringing the software in July/aug and hopefully spread out the end of Q2/Q3 with the good software and new colors/bundles

Yeah, I don't think Nintendo needs a big game this holiday since MK and AC are already doing the heavy lifting.



tbone51 said:
curl-6 said:

The rumored Paper Mario and old ports/remasters/remakes alone won't be enough to keep Switch up YOY I reckon. It'll take more than that to counterbalance the avalanche of games they got in the second half of 2019 plus the Lite.

Hopefully they can deliver more for June-December than that.

Second half of 2019 didn’t have supply issue and needing of a lot of stock. That’s a big part of it imo. Those games can keep up the momentum with possible good bundles this season. Out of all the years I’ve seen, this is one that doesn’t need as much software. Besides the Mario ports/remasters if true are big games. Add in another color or 2 for the lite, ring fit adventure that is still selling systems and is also need of more supply. 2020 isn’t going to be a bad year despite not having that huge seller like SSB or Pokémon this year (excluding AC in the beginning)

Even if true, a couple of Mario remasters aren't going to keep the second half of the year up YOY when 2019 got Luigi's Mansion 3, Pokemon, Lite, etc.

If Switch is going to remain up YOY it will need big new games in June-Dec beyond just the rumored Paper Mario.



To give an idea of how long Mario Kart can sell for. Nintendo reported in October 2019 that Mario Kart Wii sold 40,000 units in the first two fiscal quarters.



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curl-6 said:
tbone51 said:

Second half of 2019 didn’t have supply issue and needing of a lot of stock. That’s a big part of it imo. Those games can keep up the momentum with possible good bundles this season. Out of all the years I’ve seen, this is one that doesn’t need as much software. Besides the Mario ports/remasters if true are big games. Add in another color or 2 for the lite, ring fit adventure that is still selling systems and is also need of more supply. 2020 isn’t going to be a bad year despite not having that huge seller like SSB or Pokémon this year (excluding AC in the beginning)

Even if true, a couple of Mario remasters aren't going to keep the second half of the year up YOY when 2019 got Luigi's Mansion 3, Pokemon, Lite, etc.

If Switch is going to remain up YOY it will need big new games in June-Dec beyond just the rumored Paper Mario.

20mil shipped for the FY20.... the advantage here for This FY compared to the last 2 FY is that Nintendo needs to have ship and stuff the channels. Let’s take a look at what we know of sell thru vs shipped to paint a better picture here

-Nintendo had 52.5mil shipped by end of 2019. Sell thru was over 48mil. After W1 huge global sales I’m guessing roughly 3.8mil-4.0mil were on store shelves. (Let’s say 3mil for a nice number)

-Q4 shipped 3.3mil right? Well sell thru was way higher than this meaning a lot of the extra units hanging around the stores got sold out. This is what FY20 has to deal with. Not only is Q1 selling what they ship, they need to have a healthy amount of consoles in retail stores.

-Q1 like I said has AC driving it with XC and some third party end of May. The problem won’t be fully solved this quarter which already should be way ahead of previous avg for NSW shipments

-Q2 should start fixing the problem if everything goes right and this is the quarter if not especially the next to fill up as much as possible to retailers (*note doesn’t have to be sell thru as stores will need stock again especially Japan)

-Q3 where I believe most shipments will finally be up from shortages as well as good software (can be a 1-2combo of Mario collection/Paper Mario/etc). even if down this quarter the other 2 quarters should make up for it imo

-Evergreens are literally keeping this system afloat, AC as everybody has seen and even the sleeper hit RFA will still provide healthy sales despite no new software intill at least end of summer imo



Also I think some are underestimating how big a 3D collection would be... SM3DWD I’m not sure but if a collection of sunshine/64/galaxy are true that easily a 10mil seller. Sm64 DS did over 10mil



tbone51 said:
curl-6 said:

Even if true, a couple of Mario remasters aren't going to keep the second half of the year up YOY when 2019 got Luigi's Mansion 3, Pokemon, Lite, etc.

If Switch is going to remain up YOY it will need big new games in June-Dec beyond just the rumored Paper Mario.

20mil shipped for the FY20.... the advantage here for This FY compared to the last 2 FY is that Nintendo needs to have ship and stuff the channels. Let’s take a look at what we know of sell thru vs shipped to paint a better picture here

-Nintendo had 52.5mil shipped by end of 2019. Sell thru was over 48mil. After W1 huge global sales I’m guessing roughly 3.8mil-4.0mil were on store shelves. (Let’s say 3mil for a nice number)

-Q4 shipped 3.3mil right? Well sell thru was way higher than this meaning a lot of the extra units hanging around the stores got sold out. This is what FY20 has to deal with. Not only is Q1 selling what they ship, they need to have a healthy amount of consoles in retail stores.

-Q1 like I said has AC driving it with XC and some third party end of May. The problem won’t be fully solved this quarter which already should be way ahead of previous avg for NSW shipments

-Q2 should start fixing the problem if everything goes right and this is the quarter if not especially the next to fill up as much as possible to retailers (*note doesn’t have to be sell thru as stores will need stock again especially Japan)

-Q3 where I believe most shipments will finally be up from shortages as well as good software (can be a 1-2combo of Mario collection/Paper Mario/etc). even if down this quarter the other 2 quarters should make up for it imo

-Evergreens are literally keeping this system afloat, AC as everybody has seen and even the sleeper hit RFA will still provide healthy sales despite no new software intill at least end of summer imo

Paper Mario, evergreens, and remasters of old games aren't enough, not compared to mainline Pokemon + hardware revision in 2019. 

For a 21 millions plus year, you need multiple big system sellers throughout.



A traditional Paper Mario coupled with 3D Mario remasters would be more than enough to keep Switch up YOY especially since it is coming in to this holiday season with so much more momentum than last year thanks to Animal Crossing.



newwil7l said:
A traditional Paper Mario coupled with 3D Mario remasters would be more than enough to keep Switch up YOY especially since it is coming in to this holiday season with so much more momentum than last year thanks to Animal Crossing.

I wouldn't necessarily bet on the momentum carrying that far.  Not yet, though it might.  More helpful will be the YOY advantage it will pick up in FY Q1, which should cushion a possible drop in late Q2 and Q3.  

Nintendo does have two big strategies they've only dabbled in:  big bundles and a price cut.  I could see Nintendo pondering those if they feel like the COVID-19 disruptions are going to cause too many issues in their schedule for late 2020 and early 2021.  

The Holiday for Switch last year was absurd though, it would take some BIG guns to top that.  You don't get a 2 million December on "momentum" alone.