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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Nintendo quarterly results May 7th 2020 - Switch: 55.77m, (21m for the FY) Animal Crossing: 11.77m

curl-6 said:
tbone51 said:

20mil shipped for the FY20.... the advantage here for This FY compared to the last 2 FY is that Nintendo needs to have ship and stuff the channels. Let’s take a look at what we know of sell thru vs shipped to paint a better picture here

-Nintendo had 52.5mil shipped by end of 2019. Sell thru was over 48mil. After W1 huge global sales I’m guessing roughly 3.8mil-4.0mil were on store shelves. (Let’s say 3mil for a nice number)

-Q4 shipped 3.3mil right? Well sell thru was way higher than this meaning a lot of the extra units hanging around the stores got sold out. This is what FY20 has to deal with. Not only is Q1 selling what they ship, they need to have a healthy amount of consoles in retail stores.

-Q1 like I said has AC driving it with XC and some third party end of May. The problem won’t be fully solved this quarter which already should be way ahead of previous avg for NSW shipments

-Q2 should start fixing the problem if everything goes right and this is the quarter if not especially the next to fill up as much as possible to retailers (*note doesn’t have to be sell thru as stores will need stock again especially Japan)

-Q3 where I believe most shipments will finally be up from shortages as well as good software (can be a 1-2combo of Mario collection/Paper Mario/etc). even if down this quarter the other 2 quarters should make up for it imo

-Evergreens are literally keeping this system afloat, AC as everybody has seen and even the sleeper hit RFA will still provide healthy sales despite no new software intill at least end of summer imo

Paper Mario, evergreens, and remasters of old games aren't enough, not compared to mainline Pokemon + hardware revision in 2019. 

For a 21 millions plus year, you need multiple big system sellers throughout.

You keep saying “big games” but ignore one of my main points. Your argument is Pokémon/new revision. Your right as that helped out Q2/Q3 with AC in Q4. Making that 21mil.

For me aiming near 20mil or above it this FY is possible despite the guessing of software (mid and small releases). 2 main factors I’m saying including another guess for a boost will keep Nintendo forecast of 19mil or even more a reality.

pls don’t push this to the side...

-This is the highest momentum we have seen for the NSW. This is in its 4th year,no price cut (lite isn’t a price cut), shortages tgg FF at result in lotteries (japan) intill at least end of June).

-Q1 will be whatever they ship will sell with no way of stuffing the channels. This means Nintendo still needs to ship a certain number that puts extra units on store shelves. Will happen Q2/Q3 possibly, meaning shipments will be higher than normal despite software not being as big.

-These alone will boost NSW shipments due to the fact it’s in dire need of stock not seen in any console life in its 4th year.

-while doing this paper Mario, dlc Pokémon and smash, an unannounced small-mid tier game or 2, as well as 2 Mario 3D games (which your underestimating as big). Hell I argue SM3DWD is the perfect port (I’m guessing Aug release) is the perfect game like AC to be stuck playing at home but with family

-Bonus: unlike joycon colors, NSW lite having new colors mean more hardware shipments (I can see 2 new colors this FY). On top of being in its 4th year for holidays I can see this year being a focus on bundles especially for nsmbud and Mario kart 8D (splatoon2 in japan)



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tbone51 said:
curl-6 said:

Paper Mario, evergreens, and remasters of old games aren't enough, not compared to mainline Pokemon + hardware revision in 2019. 

For a 21 millions plus year, you need multiple big system sellers throughout.

You keep saying “big games” but ignore one of my main points. Your argument is Pokémon/new revision. Your right as that helped out Q2/Q3 with AC in Q4. Making that 21mil.

For me aiming near 20mil or above it this FY is possible despite the guessing of software (mid and small releases). 2 main factors I’m saying including another guess for a boost will keep Nintendo forecast of 19mil or even more a reality.

pls don’t push this to the side...

-This is the highest momentum we have seen for the NSW. This is in its 4th year,no price cut (lite isn’t a price cut), shortages tgg FF at result in lotteries (japan) intill at least end of June).

-Q1 will be whatever they ship will sell with no way of stuffing the channels. This means Nintendo still needs to ship a certain number that puts extra units on store shelves. Will happen Q2/Q3 possibly, meaning shipments will be higher than normal despite software not being as big.

-These alone will boost NSW shipments due to the fact it’s in dire need of stock not seen in any console life in its 4th year.

-while doing this paper Mario, dlc Pokémon and smash, an unannounced small-mid tier game or 2, as well as 2 Mario 3D games (which your underestimating as big). Hell I argue SM3DWD is the perfect port (I’m guessing Aug release) is the perfect game like AC to be stuck playing at home but with family

-Bonus: unlike joycon colors, NSW lite having new colors mean more hardware shipments (I can see 2 new colors this FY). On top of being in its 4th year for holidays I can see this year being a focus on bundles especially for nsmbud and Mario kart 8D (splatoon2 in japan)

Switch's current momentum will disappear if there aren't further big releases to sustain it. It may be in high demand now and in the short term future but that will change quickly if they can't continue to offer major software. Old remasters, B-list titles, and DLC won't cut the mustard.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023. (And over 130 million lifetime)

curl-6 said:
tbone51 said:

You keep saying “big games” but ignore one of my main points. Your argument is Pokémon/new revision. Your right as that helped out Q2/Q3 with AC in Q4. Making that 21mil.

For me aiming near 20mil or above it this FY is possible despite the guessing of software (mid and small releases). 2 main factors I’m saying including another guess for a boost will keep Nintendo forecast of 19mil or even more a reality.

pls don’t push this to the side...

-This is the highest momentum we have seen for the NSW. This is in its 4th year,no price cut (lite isn’t a price cut), shortages tgg FF at result in lotteries (japan) intill at least end of June).

-Q1 will be whatever they ship will sell with no way of stuffing the channels. This means Nintendo still needs to ship a certain number that puts extra units on store shelves. Will happen Q2/Q3 possibly, meaning shipments will be higher than normal despite software not being as big.

-These alone will boost NSW shipments due to the fact it’s in dire need of stock not seen in any console life in its 4th year.

-while doing this paper Mario, dlc Pokémon and smash, an unannounced small-mid tier game or 2, as well as 2 Mario 3D games (which your underestimating as big). Hell I argue SM3DWD is the perfect port (I’m guessing Aug release) is the perfect game like AC to be stuck playing at home but with family

-Bonus: unlike joycon colors, NSW lite having new colors mean more hardware shipments (I can see 2 new colors this FY). On top of being in its 4th year for holidays I can see this year being a focus on bundles especially for nsmbud and Mario kart 8D (splatoon2 in japan)

Switch's current momentum will disappear if there aren't further big releases to sustain it. It may be in high demand now and in the short term future but that will change quickly if they can't continue to offer major software. Old remasters, B-list titles, and DLC won't cut the mustard.

Guess we will have to agree to disagree regarding software .We will see anyway in every quarter who is right. That said I wanted to point out 1more thing.

20mil this FY doesn’t have to mean sell thru anywhere close to 20mil. Last FY shipment was 21mil but sell thru was higher (judging by Q4 sellouts and store shelves having 3-4mil on store shelves end of 2019. 

i would argue sell thru can be 17mil and lead to 20mil or higher. 

Q1 looking strong already, NSW selling good in Europe, US for a slow month like April is looking to break records. Japan game before GW sold 315k heavy supply issues, last year was 182k same time without any and they didn’t have to ship as much.

Q1 japan 2019 sell thru was 510k, if GW this year has a combine sell thru if let’s say 300k, that would already be ahead of it by a good margin without including rest of May and June. And remember in japan it’s whatever they ship they sell and lotteries will be going on intill at least end of june

from Chris on gaf 

Participations for next lottery of Switch and Ring Fit Adventure at GEO are from 18 to 22 May.

Until 30 June, GEO will sell Switch and Ring Fit Adventure only to lottery winners through GEO Application and will not sell them at stores or GEO Online Store.



Harvest moon announced, bammm let the software come out!!!



tbone51 said:
curl-6 said:

Switch's current momentum will disappear if there aren't further big releases to sustain it. It may be in high demand now and in the short term future but that will change quickly if they can't continue to offer major software. Old remasters, B-list titles, and DLC won't cut the mustard.

Guess we will have to agree to disagree regarding software .We will see anyway in every quarter who is right. That said I wanted to point out 1more thing.

20mil this FY doesn’t have to mean sell thru anywhere close to 20mil. Last FY shipment was 21mil but sell thru was higher (judging by Q4 sellouts and store shelves having 3-4mil on store shelves end of 2019. 

i would argue sell thru can be 17mil and lead to 20mil or higher. 

Q1 looking strong already, NSW selling good in Europe, US for a slow month like April is looking to break records. Japan game before GW sold 315k heavy supply issues, last year was 182k same time without any and they didn’t have to ship as much.

Q1 japan 2019 sell thru was 510k, if GW this year has a combine sell thru if let’s say 300k, that would already be ahead of it by a good margin without including rest of May and June. And remember in japan it’s whatever they ship they sell and lotteries will be going on intill at least end of june

from Chris on gaf 

Participations for next lottery of Switch and Ring Fit Adventure at GEO are from 18 to 22 May.

Until 30 June, GEO will sell Switch and Ring Fit Adventure only to lottery winners through GEO Application and will not sell them at stores or GEO Online Store.

Well, I am saying IF they don't have a strong second lineup, not that they definitely won't.

For all we know at the moment they could have an excellent July-Dec lined up, it's just a mystery right now, and with the world gone crazy I'm just inclined to be cautious.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023. (And over 130 million lifetime)

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Paper Mario July 17 release. 1st game of 2nd half of year announced and coming in two months.

Nintendo is fine if they are releasing that game early. I’m confident in what they are releasing sept and onward



tbone51 said:
Paper Mario July 17 release. 1st game of 2nd half of year announced and coming in two months.

Nintendo is fine if they are releasing that game early. I’m confident in what they are releasing sept and onward

You may be right. Paper Mario has been a bit of a filler game on Nintendo's release schedules and used to plug a hole here and there. This would mean they may have 3 or four games set for the second half at least.



In the wilderness we go alone with our new knowledge and strength.

Stefan.De.Machtige said:
tbone51 said:
Paper Mario July 17 release. 1st game of 2nd half of year announced and coming in two months.

Nintendo is fine if they are releasing that game early. I’m confident in what they are releasing sept and onward

You may be right. Paper Mario has been a bit of a filler game on Nintendo's release schedules and used to plug a hole here and there. This would mean they may have 3 or four games set for the second half at least.

Yes easily, With paper Mario coming in July and on top of that something important to note here is that even if we don’t know the 2nd half line up, doesn’t mean games aren’t coming. They can announce nov/dec games in sept and it be fine.

my guess now for first party only

May: Xenoblade Chronicles DE 

June: *Dlc SSB character (Arms) + Pokémon SwSh Part 1

July: Paper Mario OK

August: Pikmin 3 Deluxe

Sept: Mario 3D Collection (galaxy/sunshine/64) +Dlc SSB character 2

Oct: ??? Surprise  and new Lite Color

Nov: SM3DW Deluxe but this game could be a surprise imo and be a SM3DW2



tbone51 said:
Stefan.De.Machtige said:

You may be right. Paper Mario has been a bit of a filler game on Nintendo's release schedules and used to plug a hole here and there. This would mean they may have 3 or four games set for the second half at least.

Yes easily, With paper Mario coming in July and on top of that something important to note here is that even if we don’t know the 2nd half line up, doesn’t mean games aren’t coming. They can announce nov/dec games in sept and it be fine.

my guess now for first party only

May: Xenoblade Chronicles DE 

June: *Dlc SSB character (Arms) + Pokémon SwSh Part 1

July: Paper Mario OK

August: Pikmin 3 Deluxe

Sept: Mario 3D Collection (galaxy/sunshine/64) +Dlc SSB character 2

Oct: ??? Surprise  and new Lite Color

Nov: SM3DW Deluxe but this game could be a surprise imo and be a SM3DW2

I sure as hell hope they have more than just one significant new game (paper mario) in the second half.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023. (And over 130 million lifetime)

curl-6 said:
tbone51 said:

Yes easily, With paper Mario coming in July and on top of that something important to note here is that even if we don’t know the 2nd half line up, doesn’t mean games aren’t coming. They can announce nov/dec games in sept and it be fine.

my guess now for first party only

May: Xenoblade Chronicles DE 

June: *Dlc SSB character (Arms) + Pokémon SwSh Part 1

July: Paper Mario OK

August: Pikmin 3 Deluxe

Sept: Mario 3D Collection (galaxy/sunshine/64) +Dlc SSB character 2

Oct: ??? Surprise  and new Lite Color

Nov: SM3DW Deluxe but this game could be a surprise imo and be a SM3DW2

I sure as hell hope they have more than just one significant new game (paper mario) in the second half.

But but but.... aren’t all these games significantly new to NSW owners??? ;)

that said I do hope for 2 mid tier new games for sept-Nov. but I have no idea what they can be