Paper Mario, evergreens, and remasters of old games aren't enough, not compared to mainline Pokemon + hardware revision in 2019.
For a 21 millions plus year, you need multiple big system sellers throughout.
You keep saying “big games” but ignore one of my main points. Your argument is Pokémon/new revision. Your right as that helped out Q2/Q3 with AC in Q4. Making that 21mil.
For me aiming near 20mil or above it this FY is possible despite the guessing of software (mid and small releases). 2 main factors I’m saying including another guess for a boost will keep Nintendo forecast of 19mil or even more a reality.
pls don’t push this to the side...
-This is the highest momentum we have seen for the NSW. This is in its 4th year,no price cut (lite isn’t a price cut), shortages tgg FF at result in lotteries (japan) intill at least end of June).
-Q1 will be whatever they ship will sell with no way of stuffing the channels. This means Nintendo still needs to ship a certain number that puts extra units on store shelves. Will happen Q2/Q3 possibly, meaning shipments will be higher than normal despite software not being as big.
-These alone will boost NSW shipments due to the fact it’s in dire need of stock not seen in any console life in its 4th year.
-while doing this paper Mario, dlc Pokémon and smash, an unannounced small-mid tier game or 2, as well as 2 Mario 3D games (which your underestimating as big). Hell I argue SM3DWD is the perfect port (I’m guessing Aug release) is the perfect game like AC to be stuck playing at home but with family
-Bonus: unlike joycon colors, NSW lite having new colors mean more hardware shipments (I can see 2 new colors this FY). On top of being in its 4th year for holidays I can see this year being a focus on bundles especially for nsmbud and Mario kart 8D (splatoon2 in japan)