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curl-6 on 12 May 2020
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tbone51 said:
curl-6 said:

Switch's current momentum will disappear if there aren't further big releases to sustain it. It may be in high demand now and in the short term future but that will change quickly if they can't continue to offer major software. Old remasters, B-list titles, and DLC won't cut the mustard.

Guess we will have to agree to disagree regarding software .We will see anyway in every quarter who is right. That said I wanted to point out 1more thing.

20mil this FY doesn’t have to mean sell thru anywhere close to 20mil. Last FY shipment was 21mil but sell thru was higher (judging by Q4 sellouts and store shelves having 3-4mil on store shelves end of 2019. 

i would argue sell thru can be 17mil and lead to 20mil or higher. 

Q1 looking strong already, NSW selling good in Europe, US for a slow month like April is looking to break records. Japan game before GW sold 315k heavy supply issues, last year was 182k same time without any and they didn’t have to ship as much.

Q1 japan 2019 sell thru was 510k, if GW this year has a combine sell thru if let’s say 300k, that would already be ahead of it by a good margin without including rest of May and June. And remember in japan it’s whatever they ship they sell and lotteries will be going on intill at least end of june

from Chris on gaf 

Participations for next lottery of Switch and Ring Fit Adventure at GEO are from 18 to 22 May.

Until 30 June, GEO will sell Switch and Ring Fit Adventure only to lottery winners through GEO Application and will not sell them at stores or GEO Online Store.

Well, I am saying IF they don't have a strong second lineup, not that they definitely won't.

For all we know at the moment they could have an excellent July-Dec lined up, it's just a mystery right now, and with the world gone crazy I'm just inclined to be cautious.