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tbone51 on 12 May 2020
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curl-6 said:
tbone51 said:

20mil shipped for the FY20.... the advantage here for This FY compared to the last 2 FY is that Nintendo needs to have ship and stuff the channels. Let’s take a look at what we know of sell thru vs shipped to paint a better picture here

-Nintendo had 52.5mil shipped by end of 2019. Sell thru was over 48mil. After W1 huge global sales I’m guessing roughly 3.8mil-4.0mil were on store shelves. (Let’s say 3mil for a nice number)

-Q4 shipped 3.3mil right? Well sell thru was way higher than this meaning a lot of the extra units hanging around the stores got sold out. This is what FY20 has to deal with. Not only is Q1 selling what they ship, they need to have a healthy amount of consoles in retail stores.

-Q1 like I said has AC driving it with XC and some third party end of May. The problem won’t be fully solved this quarter which already should be way ahead of previous avg for NSW shipments

-Q2 should start fixing the problem if everything goes right and this is the quarter if not especially the next to fill up as much as possible to retailers (*note doesn’t have to be sell thru as stores will need stock again especially Japan)

-Q3 where I believe most shipments will finally be up from shortages as well as good software (can be a 1-2combo of Mario collection/Paper Mario/etc). even if down this quarter the other 2 quarters should make up for it imo

-Evergreens are literally keeping this system afloat, AC as everybody has seen and even the sleeper hit RFA will still provide healthy sales despite no new software intill at least end of summer imo

Paper Mario, evergreens, and remasters of old games aren't enough, not compared to mainline Pokemon + hardware revision in 2019. 

For a 21 millions plus year, you need multiple big system sellers throughout.

You keep saying “big games” but ignore one of my main points. Your argument is Pokémon/new revision. Your right as that helped out Q2/Q3 with AC in Q4. Making that 21mil.

For me aiming near 20mil or above it this FY is possible despite the guessing of software (mid and small releases). 2 main factors I’m saying including another guess for a boost will keep Nintendo forecast of 19mil or even more a reality.

pls don’t push this to the side...

-This is the highest momentum we have seen for the NSW. This is in its 4th year,no price cut (lite isn’t a price cut), shortages tgg FF at result in lotteries (japan) intill at least end of June).

-Q1 will be whatever they ship will sell with no way of stuffing the channels. This means Nintendo still needs to ship a certain number that puts extra units on store shelves. Will happen Q2/Q3 possibly, meaning shipments will be higher than normal despite software not being as big.

-These alone will boost NSW shipments due to the fact it’s in dire need of stock not seen in any console life in its 4th year.

-while doing this paper Mario, dlc Pokémon and smash, an unannounced small-mid tier game or 2, as well as 2 Mario 3D games (which your underestimating as big). Hell I argue SM3DWD is the perfect port (I’m guessing Aug release) is the perfect game like AC to be stuck playing at home but with family

-Bonus: unlike joycon colors, NSW lite having new colors mean more hardware shipments (I can see 2 new colors this FY). On top of being in its 4th year for holidays I can see this year being a focus on bundles especially for nsmbud and Mario kart 8D (splatoon2 in japan)