curl-6 said:
tbone51 said:
You keep saying “big games” but ignore one of my main points. Your argument is Pokémon/new revision. Your right as that helped out Q2/Q3 with AC in Q4. Making that 21mil.
For me aiming near 20mil or above it this FY is possible despite the guessing of software (mid and small releases). 2 main factors I’m saying including another guess for a boost will keep Nintendo forecast of 19mil or even more a reality.
pls don’t push this to the side...
-This is the highest momentum we have seen for the NSW. This is in its 4th year,no price cut (lite isn’t a price cut), shortages tgg FF at result in lotteries (japan) intill at least end of June).
-Q1 will be whatever they ship will sell with no way of stuffing the channels. This means Nintendo still needs to ship a certain number that puts extra units on store shelves. Will happen Q2/Q3 possibly, meaning shipments will be higher than normal despite software not being as big.
-These alone will boost NSW shipments due to the fact it’s in dire need of stock not seen in any console life in its 4th year.
-while doing this paper Mario, dlc Pokémon and smash, an unannounced small-mid tier game or 2, as well as 2 Mario 3D games (which your underestimating as big). Hell I argue SM3DWD is the perfect port (I’m guessing Aug release) is the perfect game like AC to be stuck playing at home but with family
-Bonus: unlike joycon colors, NSW lite having new colors mean more hardware shipments (I can see 2 new colors this FY). On top of being in its 4th year for holidays I can see this year being a focus on bundles especially for nsmbud and Mario kart 8D (splatoon2 in japan)
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Switch's current momentum will disappear if there aren't further big releases to sustain it. It may be in high demand now and in the short term future but that will change quickly if they can't continue to offer major software. Old remasters, B-list titles, and DLC won't cut the mustard.
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Guess we will have to agree to disagree regarding software .We will see anyway in every quarter who is right. That said I wanted to point out 1more thing.
20mil this FY doesn’t have to mean sell thru anywhere close to 20mil. Last FY shipment was 21mil but sell thru was higher (judging by Q4 sellouts and store shelves having 3-4mil on store shelves end of 2019.
i would argue sell thru can be 17mil and lead to 20mil or higher.
Q1 looking strong already, NSW selling good in Europe, US for a slow month like April is looking to break records. Japan game before GW sold 315k heavy supply issues, last year was 182k same time without any and they didn’t have to ship as much.
Q1 japan 2019 sell thru was 510k, if GW this year has a combine sell thru if let’s say 300k, that would already be ahead of it by a good margin without including rest of May and June. And remember in japan it’s whatever they ship they sell and lotteries will be going on intill at least end of june
from Chris on gaf
Participations for next lottery of Switch and Ring Fit Adventure at GEO are from 18 to 22 May.
Until 30 June, GEO will sell Switch and Ring Fit Adventure only to lottery winners through GEO Application and will not sell them at stores or GEO Online Store.
