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Nuvendil on 12 May 2020
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Otter said:
Nuvendil said:

I wouldn't necessarily bet on the momentum carrying that far.  Not yet, though it might.  More helpful will be the YOY advantage it will pick up in FY Q1, which should cushion a possible drop in late Q2 and Q3.  

Nintendo does have two big strategies they've only dabbled in:  big bundles and a price cut.  I could see Nintendo pondering those if they feel like the COVID-19 disruptions are going to cause too many issues in their schedule for late 2020 and early 2021.  

The Holiday for Switch last year was absurd though, it would take some BIG guns to top that.  You don't get a 2 million December on "momentum" alone.

We also have to ask though, if Nintendo are already projecting to be down YOY, will they be willing to cut into profits just to say they beat last years hardware units? I think its more valuable for people putting bets on this forum, then it is for Nintendo. Price cuts will come when they're needed, a 19m year, down from 21m doesn't seem like that kinda situation imo

Agreed.  But I was referring to a scenario where it was looking worse than they expected, so perhaps a sub 19 mil projection.  Unlikely as it may seem now with the Switch riding such extreme momentum, a lot can change in six months.  Still, agree it is unlikely.