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tbone51 said:
20mil shipped for the FY20.... the advantage here for This FY compared to the last 2 FY is that Nintendo needs to have ship and stuff the channels. Let’s take a look at what we know of sell thru vs shipped to paint a better picture here -Nintendo had 52.5mil shipped by end of 2019. Sell thru was over 48mil. After W1 huge global sales I’m guessing roughly 3.8mil-4.0mil were on store shelves. (Let’s say 3mil for a nice number) -Q4 shipped 3.3mil right? Well sell thru was way higher than this meaning a lot of the extra units hanging around the stores got sold out. This is what FY20 has to deal with. Not only is Q1 selling what they ship, they need to have a healthy amount of consoles in retail stores. -Q1 like I said has AC driving it with XC and some third party end of May. The problem won’t be fully solved this quarter which already should be way ahead of previous avg for NSW shipments -Q2 should start fixing the problem if everything goes right and this is the quarter if not especially the next to fill up as much as possible to retailers (*note doesn’t have to be sell thru as stores will need stock again especially Japan) -Q3 where I believe most shipments will finally be up from shortages as well as good software (can be a 1-2combo of Mario collection/Paper Mario/etc). even if down this quarter the other 2 quarters should make up for it imo -Evergreens are literally keeping this system afloat, AC as everybody has seen and even the sleeper hit RFA will still provide healthy sales despite no new software intill at least end of summer imo |
Paper Mario, evergreens, and remasters of old games aren't enough, not compared to mainline Pokemon + hardware revision in 2019.
For a 21 millions plus year, you need multiple big system sellers throughout.
