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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Switch: a multi-wave console lifecycle (prediction)

 

The future of the Switch

A long life-cycle within 1 hardware revision 18 34.62%
 
A long life-cycle with ma... 28 53.85%
 
A short lifecycle then a ... 6 11.54%
 
Total:52
Soundwave said:
curl-6 said:

What does any of this have to do with what I said though? I don't disagree, I just said replacing Switch in 2021 would be foolishly premature.

Not sure where you're getting "replace the Switch in 2021" from, don't think anyone even the OP has said that. A phased transition is something different. While I think there is some merit to it, Nintendo is prone to not being able to do even standard transitions very well, that they probably shouldn't try to get too cute. 

Plan for March 2023 Switch 2 launch and support the Switch through 2024, basically same as you did with the Switch and 3DS. Getting too fancy or cute might be doable but when you have so much trouble with transitionary periods, probably just better to keep it simple. 

I got it from Otter, my first post in this thread was quoting him saying Switch should be replaced next year. That's my point of contention.

I agree with you as far as planning for a 2023 transition.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

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curl-6 said:
Otter said:

Completely different systems, completely different life cycles. There is very little comparison here. By 2017 the PS4 had literally just received major 1st party support like Uncharted, Horizons and the majority of third parties were still releasing games that began developement when the systems were announced.

By now the Switch has had a major release of every single system seller and 1st party IP.

You also ignore the part where I say Switch 2 lives alongside the orginal. Anytime between 2021-2022 would be ideal in terms of hardware spacing, 2021 would be ideal in terms of software support. 

What exactly do you think would happen if Nintendo would release a Switch 2 in 2021, please elaborate? For me their core audience will rush to buy it (their already own a Switch) and use it as as their primry system, meanwhile the more casual audience or late adopters  will buy a $199 Switch for Mario Kart 8, Animal crossing,Smash Bros, 2D mario etc.

See my post above. There's simply no need to rush willy nilly onto the next system when your current one is selling like crack. There's a reason the most successful platforms of all time weren't replaced after 4 years, it's just bad business to kill the goose that lays the golden eggs while it's still laying.

well its actually closer to 5 years then it is 4, remembering the Switch launched in March 2017, not fall.

looking at past hardware is different because cross generation is only 1 gen old (it started with PS4/X1), not only that but if Nintendo could trade some late Wii sales to have had a much healthier follow up generation, I'm sure they would have done it. The goal shouldn't be get as many Switch sales as possible, it should be a 7-10 year vision for how they intend to stay relevant and maintain + increase their current profits. The idea of killing the Switch is based off the old console cycles, we've seen in other spaces that you can support multiple hardware with a shared eco-system. This is uncharted terroritory and I think Switch 2 could literally become the primary hardware for most games next gen (Nintendo would like that Im sure) but it would require them not wait 7 years before releasing the successor, I see it as an opportunity.

They would not loose any software sales, they will only gain hardware revenue and even higher level of software from people who would start to abdandon the system late gen, either due to lack of interest or due to focusing on other platforms PS5/Sx (again we've seen this a lot with Nintendo software).

But I agree they should not rush, but if the Switch 2 is more of the same but with developers given more freedom I wouldn't see it as rushed if launches with Zelda, Metroid etc. Maybe fall 2021 is a tad too early, I said it mainly targeting the release of Zelda BOTW2 because it would be the perfect showcase for the hardware, whilst ensuring current Switch owners don't feel abandoned. Also we will see the remaining wave of PS4/X1 titles, which I think could finally break the curse which has been limiting them in many ways. Nintendo do not need 3rd parties but 3rd parties are an incredible safty net and profit source. Its why Playstation and Xbox sell by default regardless of their fuck ups.  2022 is the latest they should aim for imo. 


But look at it this way, holiday 2021 is 18 months away. 18months ago was October 2018. A lot will happen in that period. Lets see. 



I expect a "New Switch" to be released sometime in 2021. It's not going to be much more powerful (probably a x2 increase in speed), but it will make the system feel fresher. Currently the Switch has two modes for games:

Mode 1: Handheld play

Mode 2: Docked play

I expect the "New Switch" to be able to play games in "Mode 2" (docked) when playing portable, as that would be a very simple solution for the user. Alternatively, users would be able to play games in "Mode 1", increasing battery life. Nintendo could also add a third mode, a sort of "performance mode", which will increase visual fidelity when playing on TV. But, the revision is not going to revolve around stronger hardware, it's just gonna be marketed as more modern. We might also see a "New Switch Lite" at some point. And knowing Nintendo, maybe an ultra-low-cost revision.

Earlier in the thread people discussed whether revisions improved sales, but that's not the point: Their job is to keep sales at the current level. Hardware gets stale after a few years and revisions help to make things feel fresh again. A revision does not have to boost sales, just extend the natural length of the product lifecycle. 

I expect the real Switch 2 to be released in late 2023, so roughly 6 years and 8 months after the Switch. The original Switch will, however, be supported for another fiscal year. Some games could be cross-gen. Compared to other Nintendo consoles the Switch should see high sales at the end of its lifecycle as Nintendo will only have two systems to support during the transition period (compared to a whopping four in the past!), which is why we can't just look at sales trajectories of old systems and extrapolate from there. Looking at data is great, but you also have to take into account the changing circumstances of the present.



Otter said:
curl-6 said:

See my post above. There's simply no need to rush willy nilly onto the next system when your current one is selling like crack. There's a reason the most successful platforms of all time weren't replaced after 4 years, it's just bad business to kill the goose that lays the golden eggs while it's still laying.

well its actually closer to 5 years then it is 4, remembering the Switch launched in March 2017, not fall.

looking at past hardware is different because cross generation is only 1 gen old (it started with PS4/X1), not only that but if Nintendo could trade some late Wii sales to have had a much healthier follow up generation, I'm sure they would have done it. The goal shouldn't be get as many Switch sales as possible, it should be a 7-10 year vision for how they intend to stay relevant and maintain + increase their current profits. The idea of killing the Switch is based off the old console cycles, we've seen in other spaces that you can support multiple hardware with a shared eco-system. This is uncharted terroritory and I think Switch 2 could literally become the primary hardware for most games next gen (Nintendo would like that Im sure) but it would require them not wait 7 years before releasing the successor, I see it as an opportunity.

They would not loose any software sales, they will only gain hardware revenue and even higher level of software from people who would start to abdandon the system late gen, either due to lack of interest or due to focusing on other platforms PS5/Sx (again we've seen this a lot with Nintendo software).

But I agree they should not rush, but if the Switch 2 is more of the same but with developers given more freedom I wouldn't see it as rushed if launches with Zelda, Metroid etc. Maybe fall 2021 is a tad too early, I said it mainly targeting the release of Zelda BOTW2 because it would be the perfect showcase for the hardware, whilst ensuring current Switch owners don't feel abandoned. Also we will see the remaining wave of PS4/X1 titles, which I think could finally break the curse which has been limiting them in many ways. Nintendo do not need 3rd parties but 3rd parties are an incredible safty net and profit source. Its why Playstation and Xbox sell by default regardless of their fuck ups.  2022 is the latest they should aim for imo. 


But look at it this way, holiday 2021 is 18 months away. 18months ago was October 2018. A lot will happen in that period. Lets see. 

I mean all things being equal, sure you probably would want a November 2022 launch instead of March 2023, but it's not that big of a difference to the point where I think a developer looking at Switch 2 is gonna be like "nah, not supporting it now, that's too late". 

Probably the COVID19 situation will cause mass migration to PS5/XBSX projects to slow a bit anyway and not really getting cooking until next year. 

3rd party games don't need to be a cornerstone, but yes they can be helpful, if Nintendo had FF7 Remake or RE2 or GTAV or  or a number of other games those would probably sell 1-2+ million on the Switch. Witcher 3 is freaking 3+ years old when it was ported to Switch and its full price $60 versus like $20 on every other system and they still sold like 700k in 2 1/2 months. 

That's not record breaking by any means, but it's not nothing either, that likely means if the game was a brand new game of that scale, you're probably talking like double those sales if not more, which would be 1.4 million in 2 1/2 months and maybe lifetime sales in the 2.5-3 million+ range ... that's definitely something. Like I don't think it's unreasonable to think Witcher 4 could put up those kinds of numbers on Switch 2 if its released closer or even day and date with the other versions. 



Soundwave said:
Otter said:

I mean all things being equal, sure you probably would want a November 2022 launch instead of March 2023, but it's not that big of a difference to the point where I think a developer looking at Switch 2 is gonna be like "nah, not supporting it now, that's too late". 

Probably the COVID19 situation will cause mass migration to PS5/XBSX projects to slow a bit anyway and not really getting cooking until next year. 

3rd party games don't need to be a cornerstone, but yes they can be helpful, if Nintendo had FF7 Remake or RE2 or GTAV or  or a number of other games those would probably sell 1-2+ million on the Switch. Witcher 3 is freaking 3+ years old when it was ported to Switch and its full price $60 versus like $20 on every other system and they still sold like 700k in 2 1/2 months. 

That's not record breaking by any means, but it's not nothing either, that likely means if the game was a brand new game of that scale, you're probably talking like double those sales if not more, which would be 1.4 million in 2 1/2 months and maybe lifetime sales in the 2.5-3 million+ range ... that's definitely something. Like I don't think it's unreasonable to think Witcher 4 could put up those kinds of numbers on Switch 2 if its released closer or even day and date with the other versions. 


We've yet to to see next gen games but diminishing returns are real, not only from a tech perspective but from a talent pespective (having the talent to make CGI looking games), a push to unnecessarily high resolutions will reinforce the diminishing returns,  super effective unpcalling techniques already teased in DLSS 2.0 will further reduce the gap, cross play is already kind of the norm and will reduce the sense of being stuck with one platform.

Of course people wanting the best of the best will get A SX/PS5, but most people will look at Wicther 4 on Switch 2, compare it to the PS5 version and not see a major difference. Imagining Switch 2 could have 1/5th the GPU (render natively at 1/4 resolution), 1/2 the CPU and a storage 1 GB/S storage solution for $399, I think they could really secure a lot of major support and shift in the market. All the meanwhile Zelda, Smash Bros, Mario, Pokemon etc carry more weight than 99% of sony/MS's first party offerings. The ball is in Nintendo's court, it just depends on whether they want to play it safe, come in mid-gen once PS5/SX have already established themselves and repeat what they've done so far as a secondary console or whether they want be more pro-active and ambitious, striking whilst the iron is hot without abandoning their audience who when all is said and done will only buy a a handful of games (Mario Kart/Animal Crossing etc) for the console and don't care about specs.  


And there are so many people talking about A Switch Pro, its like that can just be the Switch 2... Start as a premium device like Xbox Series X, then transition into it being the main system within 2 years. I find nothing appealing about Nintendo releasing a Switch pro and then a whole new system 2 years later.

Last edited by Otter - on 05 May 2020

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Otter said:
Soundwave said:

I mean all things being equal, sure you probably would want a November 2022 launch instead of March 2023, but it's not that big of a difference to the point where I think a developer looking at Switch 2 is gonna be like "nah, not supporting it now, that's too late". 

Probably the COVID19 situation will cause mass migration to PS5/XBSX projects to slow a bit anyway and not really getting cooking until next year. 

3rd party games don't need to be a cornerstone, but yes they can be helpful, if Nintendo had FF7 Remake or RE2 or GTAV or  or a number of other games those would probably sell 1-2+ million on the Switch. Witcher 3 is freaking 3+ years old when it was ported to Switch and its full price $60 versus like $20 on every other system and they still sold like 700k in 2 1/2 months. 

That's not record breaking by any means, but it's not nothing either, that likely means if the game was a brand new game of that scale, you're probably talking like double those sales if not more, which would be 1.4 million in 2 1/2 months and maybe lifetime sales in the 2.5-3 million+ range ... that's definitely something. Like I don't think it's unreasonable to think Witcher 4 could put up those kinds of numbers on Switch 2 if its released closer or even day and date with the other versions. 


We've yet to to see next gen games but diminishing returns are real, not only from a tech perspective but from a talent pespective (having the talent to make CGI looking games), a push to unnecessarily high resolutions will reinforce the diminishing returns,  super effective unpcalling techniques already teased in DLSS 2.0 will further reduce the gap, cross play is already kind of the norm and will reduce the sense of being stuck with one platform.

Of course people wanting the best of the best will get A SX/PS5, but most people will look at Wicther 4 on Switch 2, compare it to the PS5 version and not see a major difference. Imagining Switch 2 could have 1/5th the GPU (render natively at 1/4 resolution), 1/2 the CPU and a storage 1 GB/S storage solution for $399, I think they could really secure a lot of major support and shift in the market. All the meanwhile Zelda, Smash Bros, Mario, Pokemon etc carry more weight than 99% of sony/MS's first party offerings. The ball is in Nintendo's court, it just depends on whether they want to play it safe, come in mid-gen once PS5/SX have already established themselves and repeat what they've done so far as a secondary console or whether they want be more pro-active and ambitious, striking whilst the iron is hot without abandoning their audience who when all is said and done will only buy a a handful of games (Mario Kart/Animal Crossing etc) for the console and don't care about specs.  


And there are so many people talking about A Switch Pro, its like that can just be the Switch 2... Start as a premium device like Xbox Series X, then transition into it being the main system within 2 years. I find nothing appealing about Nintendo releasing a Switch pro and then a whole new system 2 years later.

March 2023 is a full year ahead of where the Switch was compared to the PS4/XB1 ... the PS4/XB1 were almost 3 1/2 years old by that time, whereas if Switch 2 comes out then (lets say) the PS5/XBSX will be less than 2 1/2 years old. 

That's not too bad. The Switch also faced heavy skepticism from 3rd party devs because of the Wii U bombing and 3DS not performing as expected. This time around developers know Switch is a hit, so that will benefit its successor at least early on in terms of support. 

Witcher 4 on Switch 2 is probably already a go based on the fact that Witcher 3 already sold pretty well on the Switch. There's not a lot of arm twisting that needs to be done when devs can see solid sales metrics. 

It's not like Switch 2 must have every big third party game either. I would say the bigger Japanese 3rd party games being absent and COD and GTA not being there are the main ones missing that you would like to add. Overwatch, Witcher, DOOM, Diablo, Skyrim/Elder Scrolls, Dragon Quest, Minecraft, NBA2K, FIFA are likely bound to carry over to the next system.  

It's actually more of the Japanese studios being more stubborn ... no Resident Evil, no Monster Hunter, none of the more recent Final Fantasy, no Soul Calibur, no Tekken, no Metal Gear Solid aside from very old legacy ports and a streaming version of RE7 I guess. That's something I think if you're Nintendo you would like to see that change. It's time the bigger 3rd party Japanese IP be available on the no.1 selling Japanese system and barring a miracle, that isn't going to be Playstation 5. 



padib said:

Good point, but that's assuming that the bus would not be upgraded in a V2, which is unlikely if the dock was intended to augment the capabilities like you mentioned. Also, I want to ask the question of serious upgrades in the slab itself. Perhaps with a modified flattened form of ssd, it would be possible to sandwich a large drive inside the casing. Do you know if such a tech exists?

You would need to ditch USB entirely and go to some other standard that piggy-backs off PCI-E... As although USB 4 might kick bandwidth up to 5GB/s that is still orders-of-magnitude less than 16x PCI-E 4.0 lanes which provides 64GB/s.

Although... Because the Switch operates at lower levels of performance capabilities to start with, it shouldn't need more than 8GB/s for a multi-GPU configuration to become viable unless the Dock didn't include it's own DRAM buffer.... But again, that latency issue would get in the middle of the problem.

And there is the other potential issue of compatibility being broken if Nintendo abandons USB and goes with a PCI-E based interconnect.

Nintendo would simply be better off adopting a faster Tegra chip like the X2, Xavier or Orin and upsell it as a Switch-Pro rather than take a Nintendo 64/Sega Gensis route of different peripherals with different performance modes that only die-hards would probably purchase anyway.

As for the internal drive... The Switch already technically uses an SSD, so did the Wii U and Wii... I mean, it's only a very simple and rudimentary drive (It's just some NAND on a very narrow bus with a simple controller integrated on the motherboard) that sacrifices performance for cost reasons... But there is a ton of room for Nintendo to expand the internal storage capacity and performance by several multiples.

Louie said:

I expect a "New Switch" to be released sometime in 2021. It's not going to be much more powerful (probably a x2 increase in speed), but it will make the system feel fresher. Currently the Switch has two modes for games:

Mode 1: Handheld play

Mode 2: Docked play

I expect the "New Switch" to be able to play games in "Mode 2" (docked) when playing portable, as that would be a very simple solution for the user. Alternatively, users would be able to play games in "Mode 1", increasing battery life. Nintendo could also add a third mode, a sort of "performance mode", which will increase visual fidelity when playing on TV. But, the revision is not going to revolve around stronger hardware, it's just gonna be marketed as more modern. We might also see a "New Switch Lite" at some point. And knowing Nintendo, maybe an ultra-low-cost revision.

The Switch has more "performance modes" though on top of that which includes various performance and power implications.

It's not just Docked and Undocked.



--::{PC Gaming Master Race}::--

Nintendo and Nvidia signed for a long time collaboration for console hardware, so probably we will see some iteration going forward (such as the Switch 2019 revision, equipped with X1+).

OG Switch is based on Tegra X1 from Shield TV 2015, latest revision is based on Shield TV 2019.
When Nvidia release its brand new Shield TV (2021?) with a totally new chipset I think a new Switch 2 will follow in the coming years (2022/2023?).



Soundwave said:
Otter said:


We've yet to to see next gen games but diminishing returns are real, not only from a tech perspective but from a talent pespective (having the talent to make CGI looking games), a push to unnecessarily high resolutions will reinforce the diminishing returns,  super effective unpcalling techniques already teased in DLSS 2.0 will further reduce the gap, cross play is already kind of the norm and will reduce the sense of being stuck with one platform.

Of course people wanting the best of the best will get A SX/PS5, but most people will look at Wicther 4 on Switch 2, compare it to the PS5 version and not see a major difference. Imagining Switch 2 could have 1/5th the GPU (render natively at 1/4 resolution), 1/2 the CPU and a storage 1 GB/S storage solution for $399, I think they could really secure a lot of major support and shift in the market. All the meanwhile Zelda, Smash Bros, Mario, Pokemon etc carry more weight than 99% of sony/MS's first party offerings. The ball is in Nintendo's court, it just depends on whether they want to play it safe, come in mid-gen once PS5/SX have already established themselves and repeat what they've done so far as a secondary console or whether they want be more pro-active and ambitious, striking whilst the iron is hot without abandoning their audience who when all is said and done will only buy a a handful of games (Mario Kart/Animal Crossing etc) for the console and don't care about specs.  


And there are so many people talking about A Switch Pro, its like that can just be the Switch 2... Start as a premium device like Xbox Series X, then transition into it being the main system within 2 years. I find nothing appealing about Nintendo releasing a Switch pro and then a whole new system 2 years later.

March 2023 is a full year ahead of where the Switch was compared to the PS4/XB1 ... the PS4/XB1 were almost 3 1/2 years old by that time, whereas if Switch 2 comes out then (lets say) the PS5/XBSX will be less than 2 1/2 years old. 

That's not too bad. The Switch also faced heavy skepticism from 3rd party devs because of the Wii U bombing and 3DS not performing as expected. This time around developers know Switch is a hit, so that will benefit its successor at least early on in terms of support. 

Witcher 4 on Switch 2 is probably already a go based on the fact that Witcher 3 already sold pretty well on the Switch. There's not a lot of arm twisting that needs to be done when devs can see solid sales metrics. 

It's not like Switch 2 must have every big third party game either. I would say the bigger Japanese 3rd party games being absent and COD and GTA not being there are the main ones missing that you would like to add. Overwatch, Witcher, DOOM, Diablo, Skyrim/Elder Scrolls, Dragon Quest, Minecraft, NBA2K, FIFA are likely bound to carry over to the next system.  

It's actually more of the Japanese studios being more stubborn ... no Resident Evil, no Monster Hunter, none of the more recent Final Fantasy, no Soul Calibur, no Tekken, no Metal Gear Solid aside from very old legacy ports and a streaming version of RE7 I guess. That's something I think if you're Nintendo you would like to see that change. It's time the bigger 3rd party Japanese IP be available on the no.1 selling Japanese system and barring a miracle, that isn't going to be Playstation 5. 

I think they have legit reasons to be stubborn at the moment, its why whole teams are required to port some Switch games. Next gen I don't see it being so diffucult. March 2023 isn't so bad, when pple said 2023 I was first imagining holiday. But as you said if you're going to do march 2023, you might as well do Nov 2022. The only reason why Siwtch launched in 2017 instead of 2016 was because of software wasn't ready.



Otter said:
Soundwave said:

March 2023 is a full year ahead of where the Switch was compared to the PS4/XB1 ... the PS4/XB1 were almost 3 1/2 years old by that time, whereas if Switch 2 comes out then (lets say) the PS5/XBSX will be less than 2 1/2 years old. 

That's not too bad. The Switch also faced heavy skepticism from 3rd party devs because of the Wii U bombing and 3DS not performing as expected. This time around developers know Switch is a hit, so that will benefit its successor at least early on in terms of support. 

Witcher 4 on Switch 2 is probably already a go based on the fact that Witcher 3 already sold pretty well on the Switch. There's not a lot of arm twisting that needs to be done when devs can see solid sales metrics. 

It's not like Switch 2 must have every big third party game either. I would say the bigger Japanese 3rd party games being absent and COD and GTA not being there are the main ones missing that you would like to add. Overwatch, Witcher, DOOM, Diablo, Skyrim/Elder Scrolls, Dragon Quest, Minecraft, NBA2K, FIFA are likely bound to carry over to the next system.  

It's actually more of the Japanese studios being more stubborn ... no Resident Evil, no Monster Hunter, none of the more recent Final Fantasy, no Soul Calibur, no Tekken, no Metal Gear Solid aside from very old legacy ports and a streaming version of RE7 I guess. That's something I think if you're Nintendo you would like to see that change. It's time the bigger 3rd party Japanese IP be available on the no.1 selling Japanese system and barring a miracle, that isn't going to be Playstation 5. 

I think they have legit reasons to be stubborn at the moment, its why whole teams are required to port some Switch games. Next gen I don't see it being so diffucult. March 2023 isn't so bad, when pple said 2023 I was first imagining holiday. But as you said if you're going to do march 2023, you might as well do Nov 2022. The only reason why Siwtch launched in 2017 instead of 2016 was because of software wasn't ready.

I don't really think they do. Western studios seem to be more willing to take a chance, but Switch is completely dominant in Japan. 

What's the rationale for something like Soul Calibur VI, which isn't even that demanding of a game, not getting a Switch version?

And it's not even like Namco has a bad relationship with Nintendo, lol, they co-developed Smash Brothers on the system itself.