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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Switch: a multi-wave console lifecycle (prediction)

 

The future of the Switch

A long life-cycle within 1 hardware revision 18 34.62%
 
A long life-cycle with ma... 28 53.85%
 
A short lifecycle then a ... 6 11.54%
 
Total:52
Soundwave said:
curl-6 said:
The "Switch sales will drop off now they've used most of their big IPs" theory has been going since late 2017, it was wrong then and it's wrong now.
It's also a mistake to assume Switch will necessarily follow the sales trends of past Nintendo systems has it is quite unlike any of its predecessors.

You can have that luxury because really if you're wrong it's not skin off your back, you can just say "oops" and move on with your day. if you're running Nintendo you don't have that luxury you have to take into account not everything is always smooth sailing and have a plan for that scenario. 

And how is it a theory from 2017, Nintendo has several large selling IP like Pokemon and Animal Crossing and B-tier stuff like Fire Emblem that weren't available in 2017 or 2018. Even the GameCube didn't peak in sales in year 1, so that's not really a relevant point. 

They need to start planning for Switch 2 really like now. Estimating a 3 year cycle for game development, you need to know what you're doing now. 

Planning for it, yes. But panicking and rushing onto a new system prematurely is a dreadful idea.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

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curl-6 said:
The "Switch sales will drop off now they've used most of their big IPs" theory has been going since late 2017, it was wrong then and it's wrong now.
It's also a mistake to assume Switch will necessarily follow the sales trends of past Nintendo systems has it is quite unlike any of its predecessors.

I never said the Switch Hardware would drop off due to their existing IPs already being on the platform, I said new games will do little do boost hardware. The Switch hardware dropping off is projected from other Nintendo hardware. Of course impossible to know exactly how the Switch will age but as time but what is the argument against a Switch 2 offsetting this (outside of, they can continue to sell Switch 1) because they can actually just do both. All the meanwhile benefitting from software which you complained about being missing a few months back. 



curl-6 said:
Otter said:

Completely different systems, completely different life cycles. There is very little comparison here. By 2017 the PS4 had literally just received major 1st party support like Uncharted, Horizons and the majority of third parties were still releasing games that began developement when the systems were announced.

By now the Switch has had a major release of every single system seller and 1st party IP.

You also ignore the part where I say Switch 2 lives alongside the orginal. Anytime between 2021-2022 would be ideal in terms of hardware spacing, 2021 would be ideal in terms of software support. 

What exactly do you think would happen if Nintendo would release a Switch 2 in 2021, please elaborate? For me their core audience will rush to buy it (their already own a Switch) and use it as as their primry system, meanwhile the more casual audience or late adopters  will buy a $199 Switch for Mario Kart 8, Animal crossing,Smash Bros, 2D mario etc.

See my post above. There's simply no need to rush willy nilly onto the next system when your current one is selling like crack. There's a reason the most successful platforms of all time weren't replaced after 4 years, it's just bad business to kill the goose that lays the golden eggs while it's still laying.

Yes there is, smart companies know what they're doing with their launch years ahead of time. 

A new product launch is now something you just pull out of your ass rolling out of bed in 2022 and saying "OK now we need to figure this out".

Games take 2 1/2-3 1/2 years to develop, they need to know by this fall at least what they are doing with Switch 2. 

Just because you are the consumer and you only see/play the finished product and its new to you is meaningless. That's true of basically all entertainment not just video games. You may have a good time at a movie, but you probably will never understand the thousands of hours, years, decades sometimes that goes into making that product. But just because you don't concern yourself with it doesn't mean it's somebody's job to do so. You need to be on top of that stuff years in advance as a company. If you're not you are extremely irresponsible as the president. 

Last edited by Soundwave - on 05 May 2020

Soundwave said:
curl-6 said:

See my post above. There's simply no need to rush willy nilly onto the next system when your current one is selling like crack. There's a reason the most successful platforms of all time weren't replaced after 4 years, it's just bad business to kill the goose that lays the golden eggs while it's still laying.

Yes there is, smart companies know what they're doing with their launch years ahead of time. 

A new product launch is now something you just pull out of your ass rolling out of bed in 2022 and saying "OK now we need to figure this out".

Games take 2 1/2-3 1/2 years to develop, they need to know by this fall at least what they are doing with Switch 2. 

Just because you are the consumer and you only see/play the finished product and its new to you is meaningless. That's true of basically all entertainment not just video games. You may have a good time at a movie, but you probably will never understand the thousands of hours, years, decades sometimes that goes into making that. You need to be on top of that stuff years in advance as a company. If you're not you are extremely irresponsible as the president. 

You're arguing a point I never made. I never said they shouldn't be planning ahead for Switch 2. 



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

Otter said:
curl-6 said:
The "Switch sales will drop off now they've used most of their big IPs" theory has been going since late 2017, it was wrong then and it's wrong now.
It's also a mistake to assume Switch will necessarily follow the sales trends of past Nintendo systems has it is quite unlike any of its predecessors.

I never said the Switch Hardware would drop off due to their existing IPs already being on the platform, I said new games will do little do boost hardware. The Switch hardware dropping off is projected from other Nintendo hardware. Of course impossible to know exactly how the Switch will age but as time but what is the argument against a Switch 2 offsetting this (outside of, they can continue to sell Switch 1) because they can actually just do both. All the meanwhile benefitting from software which you complained about being missing a few months back. 

Again, there's a reason what you suggest hasn't been done to other successful systems in their 4th year. It's simply a bad idea. You'd be missing out on millions of potential Switch sales by replacing it prematurely, and millions of lost sales translate to hundreds of millions in lost income.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

Around the Network
curl-6 said:
Soundwave said:

Yes there is, smart companies know what they're doing with their launch years ahead of time. 

A new product launch is now something you just pull out of your ass rolling out of bed in 2022 and saying "OK now we need to figure this out".

Games take 2 1/2-3 1/2 years to develop, they need to know by this fall at least what they are doing with Switch 2. 

Just because you are the consumer and you only see/play the finished product and its new to you is meaningless. That's true of basically all entertainment not just video games. You may have a good time at a movie, but you probably will never understand the thousands of hours, years, decades sometimes that goes into making that. You need to be on top of that stuff years in advance as a company. If you're not you are extremely irresponsible as the president. 

You're arguing a point I never made. I never said they shouldn't be planning ahead for Switch 2. 

Well these decisions impact both systems. You kind of have to decide like now what Mario Kart 9 is and what system that will be on. You can't just say in 2022 "OK I thought about it and now I decided it should be a on X or Y", OK great, now the dev team needs 3 years to deliver the product. 

They need to know really now what they are launching the next system with. 

And lets be real almost every Nintendo system aside from the Virtual Boy has gotten minimum 4 years of software. Even the GBA still had new software coming through 2007. There's no scenario in which the Switch doesn't get a minimum 5 full years of software support, probably more likely you're talking 7 years. The 3DS had 6 primary years plus was supported by Nintendo with games for a year + beyond that, that's more than fine even for a successful platform. 

If you're going to whine at that point about there still not being enough to entice you to buy the system or not getting enough content after 6-7 years of software development, you're simply not a reasonable consumer and/or the product was never for you anyway. 



Soundwave said:
curl-6 said:

You're arguing a point I never made. I never said they shouldn't be planning ahead for Switch 2. 

Well these decisions impact both systems. You kind of have to decide like now what Mario Kart 9 is and what system that will be on. You can't just say in 2022 "OK I thought about it and now I decided it should be a on X or Y", OK great, now the dev team needs 3 years to deliver the product. 

They need to know really now what they are launching the next system with. 

And lets be real almost every Nintendo system aside from the Virtual Boy has gotten minimum 4 years of software. Even the GBA still had new software coming through 2007. There's no scenario in which the Switch doesn't get a minimum 5 full years of software support, probably more likely you're talking 7 years. 

And if 7 years isn't enough, like I'm sorry that's getting into a territory that's also crazy. If 7 years worth of titles and you're still like "I dunno if I want one" or "I haven't gotten my fill" you're just completely unreasonable as a consumer.

Again, you're arguing things I never said anything about. Show me where I said they shouldn't have a plan for next gen. Of course they should. 



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

curl-6 said:
Soundwave said:

Well these decisions impact both systems. You kind of have to decide like now what Mario Kart 9 is and what system that will be on. You can't just say in 2022 "OK I thought about it and now I decided it should be a on X or Y", OK great, now the dev team needs 3 years to deliver the product. 

They need to know really now what they are launching the next system with. 

And lets be real almost every Nintendo system aside from the Virtual Boy has gotten minimum 4 years of software. Even the GBA still had new software coming through 2007. There's no scenario in which the Switch doesn't get a minimum 5 full years of software support, probably more likely you're talking 7 years. 

And if 7 years isn't enough, like I'm sorry that's getting into a territory that's also crazy. If 7 years worth of titles and you're still like "I dunno if I want one" or "I haven't gotten my fill" you're just completely unreasonable as a consumer.

Again, you're arguing things I never said anything about. Show me where I said they shouldn't have a plan for next gen. Of course they should. 

It's not just having a "plan", actual software development needs to start to begin pretty soon here. A 3 year dev cycle factoring in some bumps along the way, you need to have actual game development underway like this summer/fall. And even that may be cutting it tight because Switch to Switch 2 is probably a generational leap whereas Wii U to Switch was basically the same tier hardware just a bit better in some respects. So you have to account developers needing a little more time to take full advantage of much better hardware than they had before. 

So for us as consumers while Switch 2 may be years away, for Nintendo it really needs to be top of mind like now. As a plan yes, but even as actual game development and staff being allocated to these projects. Games just aren't going to program and art design and level design themselves. 

Last edited by Soundwave - on 05 May 2020

Soundwave said:
curl-6 said:

Again, you're arguing things I never said anything about. Show me where I said they shouldn't have a plan for next gen. Of course they should. 

It's not just having a "plan", actual software development needs to start to begin pretty soon here. A 3 year dev cycle factoring in some bumps along the way, you need to have actual game development underway like this summer/fall and even that may be cutting it tight because Switch to Switch 2 is probably a generational leap whereas Wii U to Switch was basically the same tier hardware just a bit better in some respects. So you have to account developers needing a little more time to take full advantage of much better hardware than they had before. 

So for us as consumers while Switch 2 may be years away, for Nintendo it really needs to be top of mind like now. As a plan yes, but even as actual game development and staff being allocated to these projects. 

What does any of this have to do with what I said though? I don't disagree, I just said replacing Switch in 2021 would be foolishly premature.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

curl-6 said:
Soundwave said:

It's not just having a "plan", actual software development needs to start to begin pretty soon here. A 3 year dev cycle factoring in some bumps along the way, you need to have actual game development underway like this summer/fall and even that may be cutting it tight because Switch to Switch 2 is probably a generational leap whereas Wii U to Switch was basically the same tier hardware just a bit better in some respects. So you have to account developers needing a little more time to take full advantage of much better hardware than they had before. 

So for us as consumers while Switch 2 may be years away, for Nintendo it really needs to be top of mind like now. As a plan yes, but even as actual game development and staff being allocated to these projects. 

What does any of this have to do with what I said though? I don't disagree, I just said replacing Switch in 2021 would be foolishly premature.

Not sure where you're getting "replace the Switch in 2021" from, don't think anyone even the OP has said that. A phased transition is something different. While I think there is some merit to it, Nintendo is prone to not being able to do even standard transitions very well, that they probably shouldn't try to get too cute. 

Plan for March 2023 Switch 2 launch and support the Switch through 2024, basically same as you did with the Switch and 3DS. Getting too fancy or cute might be doable but when you have so much trouble with transitionary periods, probably just better to keep it simple.