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Soundwave on 05 May 2020
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Otter said:
curl-6 said:

See my post above. There's simply no need to rush willy nilly onto the next system when your current one is selling like crack. There's a reason the most successful platforms of all time weren't replaced after 4 years, it's just bad business to kill the goose that lays the golden eggs while it's still laying.

well its actually closer to 5 years then it is 4, remembering the Switch launched in March 2017, not fall.

looking at past hardware is different because cross generation is only 1 gen old (it started with PS4/X1), not only that but if Nintendo could trade some late Wii sales to have had a much healthier follow up generation, I'm sure they would have done it. The goal shouldn't be get as many Switch sales as possible, it should be a 7-10 year vision for how they intend to stay relevant and maintain + increase their current profits. The idea of killing the Switch is based off the old console cycles, we've seen in other spaces that you can support multiple hardware with a shared eco-system. This is uncharted terroritory and I think Switch 2 could literally become the primary hardware for most games next gen (Nintendo would like that Im sure) but it would require them not wait 7 years before releasing the successor, I see it as an opportunity.

They would not loose any software sales, they will only gain hardware revenue and even higher level of software from people who would start to abdandon the system late gen, either due to lack of interest or due to focusing on other platforms PS5/Sx (again we've seen this a lot with Nintendo software).

But I agree they should not rush, but if the Switch 2 is more of the same but with developers given more freedom I wouldn't see it as rushed if launches with Zelda, Metroid etc. Maybe fall 2021 is a tad too early, I said it mainly targeting the release of Zelda BOTW2 because it would be the perfect showcase for the hardware, whilst ensuring current Switch owners don't feel abandoned. Also we will see the remaining wave of PS4/X1 titles, which I think could finally break the curse which has been limiting them in many ways. Nintendo do not need 3rd parties but 3rd parties are an incredible safty net and profit source. Its why Playstation and Xbox sell by default regardless of their fuck ups.  2022 is the latest they should aim for imo. 


But look at it this way, holiday 2021 is 18 months away. 18months ago was October 2018. A lot will happen in that period. Lets see. 

I mean all things being equal, sure you probably would want a November 2022 launch instead of March 2023, but it's not that big of a difference to the point where I think a developer looking at Switch 2 is gonna be like "nah, not supporting it now, that's too late". 

Probably the COVID19 situation will cause mass migration to PS5/XBSX projects to slow a bit anyway and not really getting cooking until next year. 

3rd party games don't need to be a cornerstone, but yes they can be helpful, if Nintendo had FF7 Remake or RE2 or GTAV or  or a number of other games those would probably sell 1-2+ million on the Switch. Witcher 3 is freaking 3+ years old when it was ported to Switch and its full price $60 versus like $20 on every other system and they still sold like 700k in 2 1/2 months. 

That's not record breaking by any means, but it's not nothing either, that likely means if the game was a brand new game of that scale, you're probably talking like double those sales if not more, which would be 1.4 million in 2 1/2 months and maybe lifetime sales in the 2.5-3 million+ range ... that's definitely something. Like I don't think it's unreasonable to think Witcher 4 could put up those kinds of numbers on Switch 2 if its released closer or even day and date with the other versions.