Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Switch: a multi-wave console lifecycle (prediction)

The future of the Switch

A long life-cycle within 1 hardware revision 18 34.62%
 
A long life-cycle with ma... 28 53.85%
 
A short lifecycle then a ... 6 11.54%
 
Total:52

If Nintendo have learned their lesson they will not try and artificially inflate the Switches life, nor will they wait til it dies before introducing a successor. This will lead to second wave of sorts. Switch will continue to sell based off the casual market & people looking for a secondary console picking it up for its 5 or 8 major system sellers, meanwhile they should move their core audience onto next gen. I've been saying for a long time Switch 2 should come sooner than later (Fall 2021) and have period of cross gen.

-Soft 1st party launch with 1 or 2 big exclusive (i.e Metroid 4/Splatoon3/Starfox Reboot) targeted at their core audience.

-Cross generational launch titles which greatly benefit from the new hardware i.e Breath of the Wild 2/Bayonetta 3. (Outside of already announced games the OG Switch only receives low key, casual orientated titles which don't beg new hardware).

-Major 3rd party Support not available on OG Switch. FFVII, Assassins Creed etc. The key here is that PS4/X1 will still be receiving support into 2022. Switch 2 launching before or around could gather major support. Unlike the Wii U it would be a proven concept, have scalable engine support from the likes Epic, have the portable USP and have hadware that would show great promise towards the future (DLSS) and alignment with key PS5/SX features as oppose to the PowerPC mistake Nintendo made with Wii U.

On this logic I also think Switch 2 should be a premium €399 and live alongside OG Switch which would be an evergreen €199 family box.



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Otter said:
If Nintendo have learned their lesson they will not try and artificially inflate the Switches life, nor will they wait til it dies before introducing a successor. This will lead to second wave of sorts. Switch will continue to sell based off the casual market & people looking for a secondary console picking it up for its 5 or 8 major system sellers, meanwhile they should move their core audience onto next gen. I've been saying for a long time Switch 2 should come sooner than later (Fall 2021) and have period of cross gen.

-Soft 1st party launch with 1 or 2 big exclusive (i.e Metroid 4/Splatoon3/Starfox Reboot) targeted at their core audience.

-Cross generational launch titles which greatly benefit from the new hardware i.e Breath of the Wild 2/Bayonetta 3. (Outside of already announced games the OG Switch only receives low key, casual orientated titles which don't beg new hardware).

-Major 3rd party Support not available on OG Switch. FFVII, Assassins Creed etc. The key here is that PS4/X1 will still be receiving support into 2022. Switch 2 launching before or around could gather major support. Unlike the Wii U it would be a proven concept, have scalable engine support from the likes Epic, have the portable USP and have hadware that would show great promise towards the future (DLSS) and alignment with key PS5/SX features as oppose to the PowerPC mistake Nintendo made with Wii U.

On this logic I also think Switch 2 should be a premium €399 and live alongside OG Switch which would be an evergreen €199 family box.

They need to have their shit together for sure next time, because they really have a history of mismanaging generational transitions. 

They need to know like really within the next 6-8 months what they are launching the next system with because even if its a 2023 product, games don't magically just arrive out of nowhere. Game development cycles are increasing now becoming like 3 years on average, not even just 2 years. These decisions need to be made now. 

Mario Kart 9 IMO should be ear marked for the Switch 2, day 1. Don't fuck around and get stupid or cute, but just as importantly they need to make sure they have a second big game 1-2 months later. I would say a combo of Mario Kart 9 and Splatoon 3 probably ensures a good launch and both should be reasonable to be developed within 3 years with time to spare. 

Star Fox and Metroid are not big enough IP to bank an important launch on solely, they can be a support title but you can't bank your launch on that. 



This has also been my prediction as well. I think Microsoft has the same idea what with calling it the "Series X", and since games can be scaled far easier than ever before to whatever spec requirement required (to a certain degree), I think it would be a smart move to have a upgrades perhaps every year or two, and new game releases would be required on run on the last two revisions, for example. This means users wouldn't be forced to upgrade for some time, but the console would also not be held back in the long run. It's what mobile phones have been doing for awhile, and it makes sense for a lot of reasons.

Also, there wouldn't be such a huge power gap at the end of life cycles. Games released to this day are still optimized to run on a console that was released in 2013. This is why PC games look so much nicer at the moment.



Otter said:
If Nintendo have learned their lesson they will not try and artificially inflate the Switches life, nor will they wait til it dies before introducing a successor. This will lead to second wave of sorts. Switch will continue to sell based off the casual market & people looking for a secondary console picking it up for its 5 or 8 major system sellers, meanwhile they should move their core audience onto next gen. I've been saying for a long time Switch 2 should come sooner than later (Fall 2021) and have period of cross gen.

That's a terrible, terrible idea, replacing one of the fastest selling systems in history after just 4 years. That'd be like replacing PS4 in 2017.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

RolStoppable said:
Soundwave said:
You could do more of a phased transition like

2023 lineup like this

Switch 2 - $349.99
Switch (standard) - $229.99
Switch Lite - $169.99

Switch 2 exclusive titles -
Mario Kart 9
Splatoon 3
Metroid Prime 4
Xenoblade Next
New Platinum Games Title
Third party titles like Final Fantasy VII Remake, The Witcher 4, Resident Evil 4 Remake, Call of Duty, new engine FIFA.


Switch + Switch 2 cross platform titles

New 2D Super Mario Bros.
Ring Fit 2
Pikmin 4
New Pokemon game
New Fire Emblem game
Legend of Zelda: Wind Waker HD
Octopath Traveller 2
Indie games

Cross gen games on Switch 2 run enhanced at 1080p portable + 4K docked. Pokemon just jumped to this new 3D engine so they'll probably milk that for a while.

I think that's a reasonably doable, that said Nintendo likely will want people not to linger on Switch 1 too long.

With that kind of 2023 lineup, there's no need for a Switch 2 in 2023 at all.

All of these games are already on Switch, I think there is an upper ceiling on hardware Nintendo can sell through IPs it's already released on the hardware and by 2023 those titles will not be providing big sale boosts and they will also not be reaching the feat of their predecessors. We saw this with the 3DS. 

I personally wouldn't propose all of those titles be cross gen. Only ring fit & 2D Mario, WindWaker HD. At some point Nintendo needs to invest in their future and I think people are forgetting how quickly Nintendo hardware drops off. 



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Otter said:
If Nintendo have learned their lesson they will not try and artificially inflate the Switches life, nor will they wait til it dies before introducing a successor. This will lead to second wave of sorts. Switch will continue to sell based off the casual market & people looking for a secondary console picking it up for its 5 or 8 major system sellers, meanwhile they should move their core audience onto next gen. I've been saying for a long time Switch 2 should come sooner than later (Fall 2021) and have period of cross gen.

That's a terrible, terrible idea, replacing one of the fastest selling systems in history after 4 years. That'd be like replacing PS4 in 2017.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

The "Switch sales will drop off now they've used most of their big IPs" theory has been going since late 2017, it was wrong then and it's wrong now.
It's also a mistake to assume Switch will necessarily follow the sales trends of past Nintendo systems has it is quite unlike any of its predecessors.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

curl-6 said:
Otter said:
If Nintendo have learned their lesson they will not try and artificially inflate the Switches life, nor will they wait til it dies before introducing a successor. This will lead to second wave of sorts. Switch will continue to sell based off the casual market & people looking for a secondary console picking it up for its 5 or 8 major system sellers, meanwhile they should move their core audience onto next gen. I've been saying for a long time Switch 2 should come sooner than later (Fall 2021) and have period of cross gen.

That's a terrible, terrible idea, replacing one of the fastest selling systems in history after just 4 years. That'd be like replacing PS4 in 2017.

Completely different systems, completely different life cycles. There is very little comparison here. By 2017 the PS4 (And PS4 Pro) had literally just received major 1st party support like Uncharted, Horizons and the majority of third parties were still releasing games that began developement when the systems were announced.

By now the Switch has had a major release of every single system seller and 1st party IP.

You also ignore the part where I say Switch 2 lives alongside the orginal. Anytime between 2021-2022 would work, 2022 would be ideal in terms of hardware spacing, 2021 would be ideal in terms of software support. 

What exactly do you think would happen if Nintendo would release a Switch 2 in 2021, please elaborate? For me their core audience will rush to buy it (their already own a Switch) and use it as as their primry system, meanwhile the more casual audience or late adopters  will buy a $199 Switch for Mario Kart 8, Animal crossing,Smash Bros, 2D mario etc.

Last edited by Otter - on 05 May 2020

curl-6 said:
The "Switch sales will drop off now they've used most of their big IPs" theory has been going since late 2017, it was wrong then and it's wrong now.
It's also a mistake to assume Switch will necessarily follow the sales trends of past Nintendo systems has it is quite unlike any of its predecessors.

You can have that luxury because really if you're wrong it's not skin off your back, you can just say "oops" and move on with your day. if you're running Nintendo you don't have that luxury you have to take into account not everything is always smooth sailing and have a plan for that scenario. 

And how is it a theory from 2017, Nintendo has several large selling IP like Pokemon and Animal Crossing and B-tier stuff like Fire Emblem that weren't available in 2017 or 2018. Even the GameCube didn't peak in sales in year 1, so that's not really a relevant point. 

They need to start planning for Switch 2 really like now. Estimating a 3 year cycle for game development, you need to know what you're doing now. 



Otter said:
curl-6 said:

That's a terrible, terrible idea, replacing one of the fastest selling systems in history after just 4 years. That'd be like replacing PS4 in 2017.

Completely different systems, completely different life cycles. There is very little comparison here. By 2017 the PS4 had literally just received major 1st party support like Uncharted, Horizons and the majority of third parties were still releasing games that began developement when the systems were announced.

By now the Switch has had a major release of every single system seller and 1st party IP.

You also ignore the part where I say Switch 2 lives alongside the orginal. Anytime between 2021-2022 would be ideal in terms of hardware spacing, 2021 would be ideal in terms of software support. 

What exactly do you think would happen if Nintendo would release a Switch 2 in 2021, please elaborate? For me their core audience will rush to buy it (their already own a Switch) and use it as as their primry system, meanwhile the more casual audience or late adopters  will buy a $199 Switch for Mario Kart 8, Animal crossing,Smash Bros, 2D mario etc.

See my post above. There's simply no need to rush willy nilly onto the next system when your current one is selling like crack. There's a reason the most successful platforms of all time weren't replaced after 4 years, it's just bad business to kill the goose that lays the golden eggs while it's still laying.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.