Switch: a multi-wave console lifecycle (prediction)

[Soundwave]

Otter said:

Soundwave said:

I mean all things being equal, sure you probably would want a November 2022 launch instead of March 2023, but it's not that big of a difference to the point where I think a developer looking at Switch 2 is gonna be like "nah, not supporting it now, that's too late". 

Probably the COVID19 situation will cause mass migration to PS5/XBSX projects to slow a bit anyway and not really getting cooking until next year. 

3rd party games don't need to be a cornerstone, but yes they can be helpful, if Nintendo had FF7 Remake or RE2 or GTAV or  or a number of other games those would probably sell 1-2+ million on the Switch. Witcher 3 is freaking 3+ years old when it was ported to Switch and its full price $60 versus like $20 on every other system and they still sold like 700k in 2 1/2 months. 

That's not record breaking by any means, but it's not nothing either, that likely means if the game was a brand new game of that scale, you're probably talking like double those sales if not more, which would be 1.4 million in 2 1/2 months and maybe lifetime sales in the 2.5-3 million+ range ... that's definitely something. Like I don't think it's unreasonable to think Witcher 4 could put up those kinds of numbers on Switch 2 if its released closer or even day and date with the other versions. 

We've yet to to see next gen games but diminishing returns are real, not only from a tech perspective but from a talent pespective (having the talent to make CGI looking games), a push to unnecessarily high resolutions will reinforce the diminishing returns,  super effective unpcalling techniques already teased in DLSS 2.0 will further reduce the gap, cross play is already kind of the norm and will reduce the sense of being stuck with one platform.

Of course people wanting the best of the best will get A SX/PS5, but most people will look at Wicther 4 on Switch 2, compare it to the PS5 version and not see a major difference. Imagining Switch 2 could have 1/5th the GPU (render natively at 1/4 resolution), 1/2 the CPU and a storage 1 GB/S storage solution for $399, I think they could really secure a lot of major support and shift in the market. All the meanwhile Zelda, Smash Bros, Mario, Pokemon etc carry more weight than 99% of sony/MS's first party offerings. The ball is in Nintendo's court, it just depends on whether they want to play it safe, come in mid-gen once PS5/SX have already established themselves and repeat what they've done so far as a secondary console or whether they want be more pro-active and ambitious, striking whilst the iron is hot without abandoning their audience who when all is said and done will only buy a a handful of games (Mario Kart/Animal Crossing etc) for the console and don't care about specs.  

And there are so many people talking about A Switch Pro, its like that can just be the Switch 2... Start as a premium device like Xbox Series X, then transition into it being the main system within 2 years. I find nothing appealing about Nintendo releasing a Switch pro and then a whole new system 2 years later.

March 2023 is a full year ahead of where the Switch was compared to the PS4/XB1 ... the PS4/XB1 were almost 3 1/2 years old by that time, whereas if Switch 2 comes out then (lets say) the PS5/XBSX will be less than 2 1/2 years old. 

That's not too bad. The Switch also faced heavy skepticism from 3rd party devs because of the Wii U bombing and 3DS not performing as expected. This time around developers know Switch is a hit, so that will benefit its successor at least early on in terms of support. 

Witcher 4 on Switch 2 is probably already a go based on the fact that Witcher 3 already sold pretty well on the Switch. There's not a lot of arm twisting that needs to be done when devs can see solid sales metrics. 

It's not like Switch 2 must have every big third party game either. I would say the bigger Japanese 3rd party games being absent and COD and GTA not being there are the main ones missing that you would like to add. Overwatch, Witcher, DOOM, Diablo, Skyrim/Elder Scrolls, Dragon Quest, Minecraft, NBA2K, FIFA are likely bound to carry over to the next system.  

It's actually more of the Japanese studios being more stubborn ... no Resident Evil, no Monster Hunter, none of the more recent Final Fantasy, no Soul Calibur, no Tekken, no Metal Gear Solid aside from very old legacy ports and a streaming version of RE7 I guess. That's something I think if you're Nintendo you would like to see that change. It's time the bigger 3rd party Japanese IP be available on the no.1 selling Japanese system and barring a miracle, that isn't going to be Playstation 5.