If Nintendo have learned their lesson they will not try and artificially inflate the Switches life, nor will they wait til it dies before introducing a successor. This will lead to second wave of sorts. Switch will continue to sell based off the casual market & people looking for a secondary console picking it up for its 5 or 8 major system sellers, meanwhile they should move their core audience onto next gen. I've been saying for a long time Switch 2 should come sooner than later (Fall 2021) and have period of cross gen.
-Soft 1st party launch with 1 or 2 big exclusive (i.e Metroid 4/Splatoon3/Starfox Reboot) targeted at their core audience.
-Cross generational launch titles which greatly benefit from the new hardware i.e Breath of the Wild 2/Bayonetta 3. (Outside of already announced games the OG Switch only receives low key, casual orientated titles which don't beg new hardware).
-Major 3rd party Support not available on OG Switch. FFVII, Assassins Creed etc. The key here is that PS4/X1 will still be receiving support into 2022. Switch 2 launching before or around could gather major support. Unlike the Wii U it would be a proven concept, have scalable engine support from the likes Epic, have the portable USP and have hadware that would show great promise towards the future (DLSS) and alignment with key PS5/SX features as oppose to the PowerPC mistake Nintendo made with Wii U.
On this logic I also think Switch 2 should be a premium €399 and live alongside OG Switch which would be an evergreen €199 family box.
They need to have their shit together for sure next time, because they really have a history of mismanaging generational transitions.
They need to know like really within the next 6-8 months what they are launching the next system with because even if its a 2023 product, games don't magically just arrive out of nowhere. Game development cycles are increasing now becoming like 3 years on average, not even just 2 years. These decisions need to be made now.
Mario Kart 9 IMO should be ear marked for the Switch 2, day 1. Don't fuck around and get stupid or cute, but just as importantly they need to make sure they have a second big game 1-2 months later. I would say a combo of Mario Kart 9 and Splatoon 3 probably ensures a good launch and both should be reasonable to be developed within 3 years with time to spare.
Star Fox and Metroid are not big enough IP to bank an important launch on solely, they can be a support title but you can't bank your launch on that.
It really depends on the nature of said Metroid game. If, for example, Metroid Prime 4 was ground-breaking, adding in multiplayer support, even deeper lore and more modern twitch game design, or even some form of open world or massive online gaming aspect, it could change the nature of the impact of the IP.
And you know that a few big industry professionals have been touching Prime 4 to make it the most epic Nintendo IP, probably also the reason it was cancelled a few times.
I'm not saying this to derail, on the contrary I'm saying this to support my idea of a Software-driven wave, as opposed to the typical Hardware-driven wave. I initially suggested that BotW2 could launch the second wave, but it could also be a combination of BotW2, MP4, SM:O2, or any other big IP and massive marketing push.
In other words, what I'm trying to say is that, with today's technological achievements in backwards compatibility (no fragmentation needed) and also the ability to use outdated tech to simulate modern tech, a Switch 2 could be very competitive and not necessarily be a fully new platform as we traditionally know it, and may not even be required to push the next wave.
By the way, I really encourage you to read my reply to Shadow1980, which shows that hardware charts of one platform don't tell the whole story. The chart that would tell everything would be a total software sales by platform owner (example: one total sw sales chart for Nintendo, one for Sony, one for MS). Then instead of pointing out individual games, we would point out new platforms, and see their effects on SW releases. It would be a completely different view on the data.
Good point, but that's assuming that the bus would not be upgraded in a V2, which is unlikely if the dock was intended to augment the capabilities like you mentioned. Also, I want to ask the question of serious upgrades in the slab itself. Perhaps with a modified flattened form of ssd, it would be possible to sandwich a large drive inside the casing. Do you know if such a tech exists?
You would need to ditch USB entirely and go to some other standard that piggy-backs off PCI-E... As although USB 4 might kick bandwidth up to 5GB/s that is still orders-of-magnitude less than 16x PCI-E 4.0 lanes which provides 64GB/s.
Although... Because the Switch operates at lower levels of performance capabilities to start with, it shouldn't need more than 8GB/s for a multi-GPU configuration to become viable unless the Dock didn't include it's own DRAM buffer.... But again, that latency issue would get in the middle of the problem.
And there is the other potential issue of compatibility being broken if Nintendo abandons USB and goes with a PCI-E based interconnect.
Nintendo would simply be better off adopting a faster Tegra chip like the X2, Xavier or Orin and upsell it as a Switch-Pro rather than take a Nintendo 64/Sega Gensis route of different peripherals with different performance modes that only die-hards would probably purchase anyway.
As for the internal drive... The Switch already technically uses an SSD, so did the Wii U and Wii... I mean, it's only a very simple and rudimentary drive (It's just some NAND on a very narrow bus with a simple controller integrated on the motherboard) that sacrifices performance for cost reasons... But there is a ton of room for Nintendo to expand the internal storage capacity and performance by several multiples.
Nice, I'll look into it. If you have any articles about the memory in the Switch, and even of the WiiU and Wii as it compares to today's SSDs, it would be interesting for me. But if you knew of form factors for SSD that match the tech of today's standards but allowing for something thinner that would fit into a phone, I would be very interested to read about it.
The "Switch sales will drop off now they've used most of their big IPs" theory has been going since late 2017, it was wrong then and it's wrong now.
It's also a mistake to assume Switch will necessarily follow the sales trends of past Nintendo systems has it is quite unlike any of its predecessors.
I don't think it's completely without merit. Super Mario Galaxy 2 sold less than SMG, Majora's Mask sold less than Ocarina of Time, we could find more examples, and I'm sure we could find examples of the contrary (your PoV).
In the end, I think what makes the difference (leading to one outcome or the other) is the ground-breaking nature of the game (example Galaxy vs Sunshine), meaning that it treads new ground, or the marketing push the game gets (SMB3 vs SMB2).
Last edited by padib - on 05 May 2020