| RolStoppable said: Planning for a Switch 2 launch in 2023 or earlier would be repeating the same mistake that Nintendo made with the Wii and DS where they cut lifecycles short, meaning that the market was not ready to move on. The work on next gen first party games significantly reduced the software output for consoles that had enough life left in them to last longer than six years before replacement. Switch hasn't got a price cut through three years, has the benefit of a monopoly in the portable console market and its fourth year is set to be bigger than any of the previous ones. It's baffling that despite these circumstances there are so many people who believe that Switch should be replaced by 2023 at the latest. Points that are being made strike me as backwards, such as development times being long in this day and age, that's why work on next gen games has to start now. But development times being long is the reason why generations should be longer, because longer development times means fewer games, and fewer games means that individual saturation points for IPs won't be reached as fast as in previous generations. For example, the NES had three Super Mario Bros. games (the sales of SMB3 don't even indicate any oversaturation of the IP), so why in the world would there be growing disinterest in Switch when a lot of Nintendo IPs struggle to even get to three installments on one and the same system? The reason why the NES was replaced kind of premature was competition, because other companies were launching next gen systems. There's no need for Switch 2 in 2023 or earlier when neither Sony or Microsoft are expected to launch new systems before 2026. And again, people keep overlooking Nintendo's monopoly in the portable console market as if it meant nothing at all, because they are so fixated on a home console perspective. |
This is the first I'm hearing someone say that the DS'&Wii life was cut short. The DS receieved Pokemon Black and white 2 in 2012 and it shifted almost zero consoles. We saw games that did great on the DS, struggle on the 3DS (Nintendogs + cats). Market shifts towards mobile phones and other trends I think are causes for the DS falling off a cliff sales wise and I really doubt more of the same from Nintendo would have changed that.
Saturation of hardware sales is really a different trajectory of software sales. We saw big late gen 3DS titles like Yokai Watch and Pokemon sell big but struggle to give 3DS hardware boosts and offset its decline.
With the Wii we saw a pretty consistent 5m fallout after 2009, that did not begin with the Wii U. Mario Galaxy 2 & Donkey Kong Country, Sonic Colours, XenoBlade, Metroid Other M, Red Steel 2, Golden Eye and more didn't stop Wii's decline. 2010 was a significantly better year than 2009, but 2009 had Wii Sports Resort, Wii Fit and NSMB. Its not about the number of games released but about their ability to attract new audiences. People will argue Skyward Sword sold relatively poorly because it required a wii remote plus but Mario Galaxy 2 didn't and it still sold almost 50% less than its predecessor. Point being there's always been fatigue which settles in.
I think its impossible to make an argument here because there is no president of Nintendo systems selling a lot of hardware in late gen because of more pokemon or mario games. What we do see is that these ever green titles released in the first half of systems life are the system sellers and continue to sell the system throughout its life time. And this is exactly why Nintendo generations cannot blankly be compared with Playstation or Xbox.
The only thing that comes to mind is how great 2000 was for the N64 (Majoras mask, Banjo Tooie, Perfect Dark, paper Mario, Mario tennis etc.) but people will say the PS2 stole its momentum or whatever.
In the modern age, Nintendo can have this smooth transition. Waiting post 2023 before introducing new hardware seems bizzare. I don't see why a Switch 2 would mean an end of the Switch 1. We're not shifting from 2D/3D, we're not shifting from SD to HD, we're not building on entirely new hardware or achitecture. Instead of throwing out a completely unnecessary SKU, waiting for their audience to die 2 years later then hoping they come back next gen, Nintendo can be a bit forward thinking and give a meaningful invetsment for those who want new hardware. Something that can carry them (Nintendo) forward for the next 4+ years. All the meanwhile there is nothing lost, the handheld market you spoke off will continue on Switch 1 but also games that would never had been made for it can be made for Switch 2. In the end Switch 1 will still get its 6 year life span.
A good way to look at it was if Microsoft waited a year longer and investmented more in Xbox Series X, so that it was the rumoured Lockheart and would support the next 5 years of games and not a mid-gen update. But anyway I'm not seeing arguments for why they shouldn't release a Switch 2, just arguments of why they should continue to support current Switch (which they can obviously keep doing). Enough speculation from me though, I see them being successful regardless of which route they take I just think people are underestimating striking whilst the iron is hot (they've literally never done this) and there are many unique opportunities that a early release (by 2022) will allow them imo.
