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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - DFC Intelligence (analyst) doesn't think the Switch will pass the 100 million mark

apparently they forgot that the 3ds sold 75 milion just last gen(and will probably eek out another milion or two by the end of its production), and that was one of nintendo's least sold portables that had hardware limitations in raw performance.
switch has no such issues, is popular, even amoung the non portable market.

the switch is selling, what, 50% faster than the 3ds? when the 3ds had to drop price by 30% year one to 170, while the switch is still technically 300$ for the base model? (the switch lite is basically the 2ds if we are going to make comparisons)



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Fallawful said:
hunter_alien said:

+ the PS1.... one of the worst "reports" I have read in a while. It's obvious they have no clue how the industry works in general. 

This. 


The only way I see the Switch not passing a hundred million is if Nintendo cannibalise their own sales by releasing a successor, in the same vain that the GBA would have reached 100 mil if the PSP and DS did not release early into its cycle. The GBA was alone from 2001 till 2004; I think that they still could have the same momentum in 2005 easily if it were not for the new big boys on the block. Still, the GBA pulled almost 82 mil. 

Nintendo is not likely to do this, however, and whatever Switch successor in the coming years will likely be a "new" Switch than a Switch 2. 


if they bull a GBA/DS, its likely its becasue the sucessor would have an even HIGHER sales potential. remember the originally announced the DS as a 'third pillar' to play it safe and have the GBA to fall back on.

besides GBA would have fallen off like a rock simply because the psp was a thing. can you imagine the GBA going aganst the psp?



javi741 said:
To be honest I find it extremely hard to believe the Switch will fall short of 100 Million, here are several reasons why:

-The Switch is over 3 years old now and Sales Year over Year are STILL growing, as Switch sales are up an insane 43% in 2020 compared to the same time period in 2019, compare that to the Wii where the Wii within 2.5 Years into it's life-cycle started seeing declining Year-Over-Year sales which lead to the Wii having a much shorter lifespan in sales. The Switch still growing in sales over 3 years in is showing how the Switch will have a much longer lifespan in sales over the Wii, and the Switch is doing it with literally ZERO price cuts thus far, while the Switch Lite is cheaper most people still prefer the Regular Switch over the Lite. Once the OG Switch gets a price cut it'll increase the Switch's lifespan even more.

-Plus the Switch is a a rate of selling nearly 28Mil in 2020 alone, while the 43% growth in 2020 is likely inflated by the release of Animal Crossing, even a more likely 25% growth would result in the Switch selling 24 Million for the year. Making the Switch sit around 75 Million by the end of 2020, pretty much borderline outselling the 3DS's lifetime sales. The Switch sales need to die really quickly after 2020 for the Switch to somehow fall short of 100 MIllion, die to a sales amount that's unprecedented which is very unlikely.

-The Switch will also get Nintendo's FULL software support for the first time in Nintendo's history, meaning the Switch will be full of releases with little droughts for the next several years of the Switch's lifespan. And games are what sell people to game consoles the most, and the Switch will have a ton of them for the next several years making the Switch very appealing for all gamers to purchase.

-Also since the Switch is essentially a handheld, I wouldn't be surprised to see Nintendo try to milk the Switch as much as possible by releasing a multitude of Switch models to keep interest and sales momentum up. They did this with the Gameboy, DS, and 3DS and all were benefitial in maintaining the hype and buzz around those systems and a good amount of people purchases two systems in the same family, increasing overall sales. I'm sure a Switch Pro, maybe a console only Switch would help the Switch keep those sales up for a very long time.

-Also since it's a handheld, the Switch will age like fine wine no matter how anemic the hardware gets, usually consumers don't care much about graphics when playing portably. The 3DS, Gameboy, and DS were all very technologically inferior compared to their competitors even when they first released but they all killed the competition. However, the Switch I believe will age far better than those systems since the Switch when it first released had graphics comparable to Current Gen dedicated Home consoles like the PS4 and Xbox One, the Gameboy, 3DS, and DS often times had graphics comparable to last to 2 generations back. The Switch in 2030 might still be a competent experience.

-Also, Nintendo essentially has a monopoly on the dedicated portable console division now after killing off the PS Vita, if you want to play console like games on the go, Switch is pretty much the only option to go to.



I'm just nitpicky, but not the first time. the first time nintendo blasted full cylinder on a single console was the NES.



Bofferbrauer2 said:
hunter_alien said:

+ the PS1.... one of the worst "reports" I have read in a while. It's obvious they have no clue how the industry works in general. 

And yet they charge $2000 for a report on the industry. Per console, I might add.

Seriously, the have a detailed outlook until 2022 in there: https://www.dfcint.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/nintendoswitchcover-april18.pdf (just the table of contents, of course)

Damn... well that's what "analysts" cost you these days. I still remember how obscenely expensive was anything Michael Pachter did and let's face it he was often a completely clueless person as well. He often came up with excuses when missing the point, saying that this is how "market research" works in general. Yeah, bad market research....



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Evilms said:
Remember the 3Ds were supposed to exceed 100m but in the end they didn't make it.

The Switch killed the 3DS confirmed! 



Pocky Lover Boy! 

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CarcharodonKraz said:
Anyone else think that, while the sales have been strong for a single console, they look a bit mediocre when u consider this one machine has succeeded 2 consoles? Would we be praising nintendos sales if they were currently selling a portable and a home console with each selling half as much? Just a thought.

The only way to compare it is through revenue not sold units. Because 1 person can buy a Home console and a handheld = 2. While 1 person can buy a hybrid that is a homeconsole and a handheld = 1. 



Pocky Lover Boy! 

CarcharodonKraz said:
Anyone else think that, while the sales have been strong for a single console, they look a bit mediocre when u consider this one machine has succeeded 2 consoles? Would we be praising nintendos sales if they were currently selling a portable and a home console with each selling half as much? Just a thought.

Are PS4 sales bad because Sony had two successful consoles on the market the generation before? I doubt the PS4 is going to outsell PS3 + PSP combined, but I guess we can all agree that PS4 sales are great.

Also, the Switch is outselling Wii U + 3DS combined so far and probably will so lifetime by a healthy margin.



Trunkin said:
CarcharodonKraz said:

The same could be said for Sony with the PS3+PSP. Or Microsoft when compared to the Xbox 360. You're just forgetting that the console industry has contracted pretty majorly in recent years. The combined sales of all the consoles and handhelds back then were somewhere north of 500mil. No company is going to see the sales numbers from those peak years ever again. Gaming has expanded too far ïbeyond just conosles, with phone and PC gaming eating away at marketshare. If you look at recent numbers, however, the Switch is doing extremely well. If it outsells the Wii U and 3DS combinded, I would argue that it's managed pretty amazing turnaround from the bleak outlook of slow decay that Nintendo was facing just last gen.

Im missin u on the 360, but overall those are some solid points u bring up. Some things to think about mos def.



Jranation said:
CarcharodonKraz said:
Anyone else think that, while the sales have been strong for a single console, they look a bit mediocre when u consider this one machine has succeeded 2 consoles? Would we be praising nintendos sales if they were currently selling a portable and a home console with each selling half as much? Just a thought.

The only way to compare it is through revenue not sold units. Because 1 person can buy a Home console and a handheld = 2. While 1 person can buy a hybrid that is a homeconsole and a handheld = 1. 

That makes sense. Also if we are looking at the success side of things, u arent going to have software attachments on 2 markets unless ur successfully combining those markets. So again, to ur point,the relation between units sold and success is a bit skewed. So, maybe what we've gleaned is that units sold is more of a talking point and doesnt necessarily mean success?



It will. You got the handheld and console fans buying the same product. It’s like 3DS and Wii gamers banding together, regardless of any fan overlap. Like I myself always bought a Nintendo handheld long after I stopped playing their consoles (Wii).



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