Forums - Nintendo Discussion - DFC Intelligence (analyst) doesn't think the Switch will pass the 100 million mark

TheBraveGallade said:
javi741 said:
To be honest I find it extremely hard to believe the Switch will fall short of 100 Million, here are several reasons why:

-The Switch is over 3 years old now and Sales Year over Year are STILL growing, as Switch sales are up an insane 43% in 2020 compared to the same time period in 2019, compare that to the Wii where the Wii within 2.5 Years into it's life-cycle started seeing declining Year-Over-Year sales which lead to the Wii having a much shorter lifespan in sales. The Switch still growing in sales over 3 years in is showing how the Switch will have a much longer lifespan in sales over the Wii, and the Switch is doing it with literally ZERO price cuts thus far, while the Switch Lite is cheaper most people still prefer the Regular Switch over the Lite. Once the OG Switch gets a price cut it'll increase the Switch's lifespan even more.

-Plus the Switch is a a rate of selling nearly 28Mil in 2020 alone, while the 43% growth in 2020 is likely inflated by the release of Animal Crossing, even a more likely 25% growth would result in the Switch selling 24 Million for the year. Making the Switch sit around 75 Million by the end of 2020, pretty much borderline outselling the 3DS's lifetime sales. The Switch sales need to die really quickly after 2020 for the Switch to somehow fall short of 100 MIllion, die to a sales amount that's unprecedented which is very unlikely.

-The Switch will also get Nintendo's FULL software support for the first time in Nintendo's history, meaning the Switch will be full of releases with little droughts for the next several years of the Switch's lifespan. And games are what sell people to game consoles the most, and the Switch will have a ton of them for the next several years making the Switch very appealing for all gamers to purchase.

-Also since the Switch is essentially a handheld, I wouldn't be surprised to see Nintendo try to milk the Switch as much as possible by releasing a multitude of Switch models to keep interest and sales momentum up. They did this with the Gameboy, DS, and 3DS and all were benefitial in maintaining the hype and buzz around those systems and a good amount of people purchases two systems in the same family, increasing overall sales. I'm sure a Switch Pro, maybe a console only Switch would help the Switch keep those sales up for a very long time.

-Also since it's a handheld, the Switch will age like fine wine no matter how anemic the hardware gets, usually consumers don't care much about graphics when playing portably. The 3DS, Gameboy, and DS were all very technologically inferior compared to their competitors even when they first released but they all killed the competition. However, the Switch I believe will age far better than those systems since the Switch when it first released had graphics comparable to Current Gen dedicated Home consoles like the PS4 and Xbox One, the Gameboy, 3DS, and DS often times had graphics comparable to last to 2 generations back. The Switch in 2030 might still be a competent experience.

-Also, Nintendo essentially has a monopoly on the dedicated portable console division now after killing off the PS Vita, if you want to play console like games on the go, Switch is pretty much the only option to go to.



I'm just nitpicky, but not the first time. the first time nintendo blasted full cylinder on a single console was the NES.

The Game & Watch existed during the NES era, it technically was Nintendo's handheld division even though there were multiple different variants with only one game.



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The analysts in the video game industry are something of a joke.  Who knows what qualifications they actually have?  Michael Pachter, for example, has a law degree.  These people call themselves experts, but one has to ask themselves what this is based on.

In a couple of years this "prediction" will seem as ridiculous as those threads where people said that the Switch would sell less than 40 million.



javi741 said:
TheBraveGallade said:

I'm just nitpicky, but not the first time. the first time nintendo blasted full cylinder on a single console was the NES.

The Game & Watch existed during the NES era, it technically was Nintendo's handheld division even though there were multiple different variants with only one game.

game and watch was more like a side project.



Any slight chance of a colossal failure to meet 100 million after such a strong start I feel has pretty much been squelched with the virus outbreak. It's boosted the sales of Switch significantly as people are staying home. Given that this is a handheld, and one that will likely have additional new models (and more than one owner per household), not to mention a ridiculously vast library of software - there's almost NO chance of this. Not only will it easily cross 100 million, but I think it's quite likely to cross 150 million at this point.



 

"We hold these truths t-be self-ful evident. All men and women created by the.. Go-you know the.. you know the thing!" - Joe Biden

DarthMetalliCube said:

Any slight chance of a colossal failure to meet 100 million after such a strong start I feel has pretty much been squelched with the virus outbreak. It's boosted the sales of Switch significantly as people are staying home. Given that this is a handheld, and one that will likely have additional new models (and more than one owner per household), not to mention a ridiculously vast library of software - there's almost NO chance of this. Not only will it easily cross 100 million, but I think it's quite likely to cross 150 million at this point.

Would love to see it pass 150 million, I'm a huge Nintendo fan (though, not a fanboy and very critical). However, honestly asking, do you see any realistic chance to meet that goal or is it just a dream? I thought about it and if there is a slight chance for that goal, everything would have to line up:

1. The Nintendo Switch needs a very long lifetime (more than 7 active years), in order to have that:

2. Nintendo have to push out great quality software even in its late years. One of it has to be a surprise hit like Wii Sports/Wii Fit/Brain Age/Nintendogs but of course, it has to be something completely new, Brain Age on Switch doesn't make numbers as we can see.

3. Indy support is guaranteed but the Switch also needs ongoing support from the big players, most of it will be old and late ports but at least some new (AA) games need to be there as well for the prestige to show that the Switch offers everything/can handle everything.

4. Keep on (aggressively) marketing and advertising the Switch and its software

5. Additional SKU's, they are always minor or bigger system-sellers. Cheap ones to have several consoles in one household and releasing a Pro together with a game that shows the advantage of it like Metroid Prime 4 and/or Breath of the Wild 2. With it, get in more core gamers and early adopters who are ready again to lay down money for a new quality product.

6. Related to 5.: Don't call the successor Nintendo Switch 2 and just count the sales of it to the sales of the Nintendo Switch family. They did the same trick with the Game Boy Color, although, it was actually a new system, a real successor. It had everything what qualifies as successor: Technically significantly advanced (hell, graphics in color vs. green-gray only is a huge difference) and its games can't be played on the predecessor. I think, this point will be the single most deciding factor in reaching the 150 million!

7. Price cuts and attractive bundles, with the former Nintendo will wait as long as possible but eventually we will get them.

8. Xbox Series X and Playstation 5 don't have a significant adverse effect on the Switch sales (a very likely scenario)

9. No strong direct competitor, i.e. no strong hybrid competitor (a very likely scenario)

10. The full potential in Europe and rest of the world has to be used. The sales in Europe are still not where they could be (some aggressive marketing is necessary there). With a long life cycle, hopefully in the rest of the world those additional 5 or so millions can be sold to help finishing the line.

11. No recession and no crisis (the current Covid:19 crisis actually helps the sales)



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with Animal Crossing recent monster sales - and popularity can only rise even more - and more 3rd party games being announced for all tastes, it seems hard to see how the Switch could not reach 100m

they just have to ramp up production when the virus thing is over, if a pro version exists it will help even more

PS5 and Xbox Series X may be coming soon but they will be expensive and take at least 1.5 year to get up to speed, this gives the switch at least 2 more years of great sales, and there should be a price cut coming too



don't mind my username, that was more than 10 years ago, I'm a different person now, amazing how people change ^_^

xMetroid said:
DélioPT said:

Nintendo always had evergreens.
Even the Wii had monstruous evergreen titles, but that didn't - and doesn't - mean that it's enough. As soon as Nintendo stopped having major titles for Wii, or even other consoles, sales went down. Why? Because Nintendo consoles rely too much on Nintendo's SW. And when that doesn't work...

The question is not how many games Nintendo can produce or if they are great games.
The problem is that a quality game is not equal to system seller.
Since Wii, the only system seller Nintendo has made is Splatoon.

I didn't put in question quality, but "the quantity of 1st party system sellers".

Offering something different from PS5 or Series X might be a factor, but it may not be at the same time.
The data you mention suggests that only 30% of Switch owners don't own any other console. Which means that 70% have. And that is where the problem lies: there's a high risk that if PS5 and Series X are that attractive, PS4 and XB1 users will decide to buy it instead of a Switch.

Simplifying, a secondary console might not be a problem now but that is because those Sony and MS consumers have no other real option and if they want something more, for a 300$ and less, Switch is a good investment.
My belief is that if those new consoles are priced right and their features are really relevant, than, Switch can indeed take a hit, as the largest chunk of it's userbase is made of those same consumers.

Switch didn't have an official price cut, but they had a Lite at 100$/€ less.

Wii's marketing strategy fade away pretty quickly and it wasn't a very loved console. There were also pretty much no games in the last years.

Switch on the other hand, has a totally different demographic. Top sellers aren't only family titles but things like Botw are going to sell 20+ millions.

Sure, 70% of the install base own another console. But what tells you they might just stick with the Switch if Nintendo is aggressive enought with a new model and big titles ? What tells you the new consoles won't be under 450/500$ and people right now don't really have the money for that ? What even tells you the lineup for these new consoles won't get delayed and the first year won't be lackluster ? Switch was out in PS4's peak but PS4 owners were still buying a Switch. Not everyone buys a console at the same time. And the numbers for software the Switch is producing shows that people really love the console and want to invest in it. It is selling faster than the PS4 after all....

Not saying the next gen won't affect it at all, but i'm really not expecting a huge it. Demand for the Switch is at it's peak right now and many gamers are well aware the PS5 is a thing and even more the Series X that literally got shown. 

And for the lite, we saw before the pandemic that people still higly prefer the classic Switch they just wanted one that much they had to go with a lite cause the other one was out of stock. Nothing says these won't go and buy a classic model later on too.

By the way, there was a pretty significant boost last year for the "new" switch classic with more battery life while it literally wasn't even advertised and only had 1h more battery. Really shows there is multiple ways for Nintendo to push the console like a pro model of sort. A price cut would be huge and never a system didn't get one before it's fourth year, it's just insane.   

There is a report Nintendo expected it to sell 110 millions, so i'm sure it means they plan a long lifecycle for it (hints of why it doesn't have any cuts)  and probably other sku on the way. At the end of the year it should hit pass the 70 millions mark if Nintendo does the bare minimum but i'm sure they will get pretty aggressive now. We're entering the second part of it's life and it should be about system diversity and aggressive pricing. 

"There were also pretty much no games in the last years."
If by this you mean Nintendo games, then yeah. There weren't. And that was one of the main issues for it's lack of longetivity.

As i said, there are a lot of unknowns.
All we have seen is HW. No games, no way to actually see how HW novelties will play a roll, how MS, for exemple, will expand it's All Access program, etc., etc.
There are no certainties.

Switch did still sell a lot despite PS4 selling a lot… but isn't that weird? 3 consoles going after the same audience and no one takes a hit?
When Switch was released, there was already a userbase of 80+ million units sold of PS4 and XB1 ready for the taking, not to mention that new consoles were still years away.

PS4 and XB1 had to make the transition from last gen to this gen. Switch didn't have to take that fight.

How many consumers do you expect to pay 500$/€ (300 + 200) to have basically the same experience?

HW revisions do help extend the lifecycle of a console, but it doesn't work miracles.
And, i might be mistaken, but HW revisions that don't bring something significant have a small impact over time. 
The biggest revision that i can think of is DS Lite.

Don't really see a price cut having that kind of impact for 2 reasons:
People who don't mind losing the home console aspect of it are more than happy with Switch Lite;
When we see Switch selling so well even after 4 years, it probably means that people are more than willing to pay that price and seeing as there never was a price cut anyway, some were "forced" to fork out the 300 bucks.
Again, Lite already cut into that potential market.

PS4 sales most likely remained as big due to pricecuts. But another things that they had was a constant flow of games that the market wanted and that might just be Nintendo's problems: they might cut the price but where are the system sellers in 2020, 2021 and 2022?
If they are there, then, great. If they are not there, price cuts and revisions will help, but the hype will begin to fall.

Nintendo's big triumph over the competition is their system selling games. It's also their biggest weakness as they rely to much on them.
If they want to succeed in the coming years, they better have new system sellers ready to take Mario and friends' place.



Fight-the-Streets said:
DarthMetalliCube said:

Any slight chance of a colossal failure to meet 100 million after such a strong start I feel has pretty much been squelched with the virus outbreak. It's boosted the sales of Switch significantly as people are staying home. Given that this is a handheld, and one that will likely have additional new models (and more than one owner per household), not to mention a ridiculously vast library of software - there's almost NO chance of this. Not only will it easily cross 100 million, but I think it's quite likely to cross 150 million at this point.

Would love to see it pass 150 million, I'm a huge Nintendo fan (though, not a fanboy and very critical). However, honestly asking, do you see any realistic chance to meet that goal or is it just a dream? I thought about it and if there is a slight chance for that goal, everything would have to line up:

1. The Nintendo Switch needs a very long lifetime (more than 7 active years), in order to have that:

2. Nintendo have to push out great quality software even in its late years. One of it has to be a surprise hit like Wii Sports/Wii Fit/Brain Age/Nintendogs but of course, it has to be something completely new, Brain Age on Switch doesn't make numbers as we can see.

3. Indy support is guaranteed but the Switch also needs ongoing support from the big players, most of it will be old and late ports but at least some new (AA) games need to be there as well for the prestige to show that the Switch offers everything/can handle everything.

4. Keep on (aggressively) marketing and advertising the Switch and its software

5. Additional SKU's, they are always minor or bigger system-sellers. Cheap ones to have several consoles in one household and releasing a Pro together with a game that shows the advantage of it like Metroid Prime 4 and/or Breath of the Wild 2. With it, get in more core gamers and early adopters who are ready again to lay down money for a new quality product.

6. Related to 5.: Don't call the successor Nintendo Switch 2 and just count the sales of it to the sales of the Nintendo Switch family. They did the same trick with the Game Boy Color, although, it was actually a new system, a real successor. It had everything what qualifies as successor: Technically significantly advanced (hell, graphics in color vs. green-gray only is a huge difference) and its games can't be played on the predecessor. I think, this point will be the single most deciding factor in reaching the 150 million!

7. Price cuts and attractive bundles, with the former Nintendo will wait as long as possible but eventually we will get them.

8. Xbox Series X and Playstation 5 don't have a significant adverse effect on the Switch sales (a very likely scenario)

9. No strong direct competitor, i.e. no strong hybrid competitor (a very likely scenario)

10. The full potential in Europe and rest of the world has to be used. The sales in Europe are still not where they could be (some aggressive marketing is necessary there). With a long life cycle, hopefully in the rest of the world those additional 5 or so millions can be sold to help finishing the line.

11. No recession and no crisis (the current Covid:19 crisis actually helps the sales)

A lot of things do have to go right, and I suppose I should backpedal a bit on this and add the caveats that - Nintendo needs to support the console for at least 3-4 more years without releasing a new console which would cut off these sales, and more or less keep a relatively steady flow of compelling software most of this time. This is also under the assumption that they'll release another Switch model or 2. Still, with these conditions met, I think 150 is a real possibility. I tend to look more at the DS rather than the Wii for comparison (which not only met but actually surpassed that number) as it was also a handheld that was extremely popular in Japan like the Switch is. 

Of course lord knows - Nintendo is VERY capable of making ill-advised moves killing their momentum (just look at the Wii post-2009). And Nintendo tends to get increasingly arrogant and out of touch the more success they obtain, which leads to a blunder and another dose of humble pie, and the cycle repeats.. Still, I think, given that all their eggs are in the basket of one machine now (mobile and mini consoles notwithstanding) I think they'll be wiser this time around. 



 

"We hold these truths t-be self-ful evident. All men and women created by the.. Go-you know the.. you know the thing!" - Joe Biden

I mean it did happen before to the Wii which had a spectacular collapse in the back half of its product cycle, but I don't think the Switch will be as prone to that.

Its fundamentals as a product line are much more sound and less driven by fad crazes. Like the Switch is really not relying on things like Wii Sports or Wii Fit to drive market adoption, it was doing just as well without things like Ring Fit and Labo was more or less a dud. If you remove Wii Sports and Wii Fit from the Wii it would massively damage that platform, but if you removed Ring Fit and Brain Training from Switch nothing would change.

And unlike Wii, the portable console concept is much harder for Sony/MS to copy like they did with Kinect and PS Move (thus rendering the Wii not so special all of the sudden) ... they would have to commit to a portable platform while also supporting a home console and we've seen that's very hard for Sony to manage (PSVita).

So likely there isn't going to be a portable console alternative available for some time if at all. Game streaming to portable devices may be a long term area of concern, but for now, most people don't have unlimited data plans for their home internet, let alone wireless internet 5G that would allow for widespread portable game streaming.

Decline in years 4/5/6 is normal for just about any hardware platform, there are some systems like the XBox 360 that buck that trend but not many. 

Last edited by Soundwave - on 18 April 2020

Soundwave said:

I mean it did happen before to the Wii which had a spectacular collapse in the back half of its product cycle, but I don't think the Switch will be as prone to that.

Its fundamentals as a product line are much more sound and less driven by fad crazes. Like the Switch is really not relying on things like Wii Sports or Wii Fit to drive market adoption, it was doing just as well without things like Ring Fit and Labo was more or less a dud. If you remove Wii Sports and Wii Fit from the Wii it would massively damage that platform, but if you removed Ring Fit and Brain Training from Switch nothing would change.

And unlike Wii, the portable console concept is much harder for Sony/MS to copy like they did with Kinect and PS Move (thus rendering the Wii not so special all of the sudden) ... they would have to commit to a portable platform while also supporting a home console and we've seen that's very hard for Sony to manage (PSVita).

So likely there isn't going to be a portable console alternative available for some time if at all. Game streaming to portable devices may be a long term area of concern, but for now, most people don't have unlimited data plans for their home internet, let alone wireless internet 5G that would allow for widespread portable game streaming.

Decline in years 4/5/6 is normal for just about any hardware platform, there are some systems like the XBox 360 that buck that trend but not many. 

I am thinking the same thing. The Switch has the potential to be a player in the marketplace for another few years. Animal Crossing New Horizons (with or without the virus) shows that the Switch has a lot of legs left.

Sure, we pretty much got all of the big hitters from Zelda to Mario to Pokemon to Smash to Animal Crossing. But as evergreens, they are selling as well as ever. So regardless of how new the Nintendo titles are during the Switch's lifecycle, the big Nintendo titles are still prominent in the market. Who would've imagined Zelda: BotW still selling at a respectable rate more than 3 years into the Switch's life?

Nevertheless, sequels/remakes/remasters/etc. of popular series have potential to gain new audiences on the Switch. Imagine a remake of one of Fire Emblem's most beloved installments like Geneology of the Holy War or Blazing Blade w/Binding Blade? We are already talking about the possibilities of a remake/remaster of Super Mario 64, one of the greatest games of all-time. FFVII Remake and RE2Remake have shown that remakes of beloved classics can be potential console movers. Hell, MK8D is a console mover (and the best selling Switch game) and is a deluxe port. Of course its Mario Kart, but still impressive nonetheless.

Then we have B-tier and C-tier series like Star Fox, F-Zero, and maybe Punch Out! get new installments. Hell, Metroid Prime 4 has great potential as fans of the series have long-awaited for this game. Same with Bayonetta 3 and Shin Megami Tensei V. They may not move a lot of consoles, but they can continue building and diversifying that Switch userbase. So there are titles on the horizon, and others that are completely unknown to us, that Nintendo and their partners are developing.

I also think that Google Stadia's blunder has affected the hype for streaming games. Then you have Japan to consider. People in Japan are still trying to win lotteries to reserve a console, let alone buy one, at this time. With next-gen, how many people, considering the economic climate we are in, are willing to buy new $450-$500 consoles with some launch titles, by the end of 2020 or even the beginning of 2021? Most would be focused on getting back on their feet first I would assume, especially in the US.

As long as Nintendo are committed to supporting the Switch with solid titles for the next few years, then 100 million will be reached in no time, even as the console declines in sales.

Last edited by Kai_Mao - on 18 April 2020