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Kai_Mao on 18 April 2020
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Soundwave said:

I mean it did happen before to the Wii which had a spectacular collapse in the back half of its product cycle, but I don't think the Switch will be as prone to that.

Its fundamentals as a product line are much more sound and less driven by fad crazes. Like the Switch is really not relying on things like Wii Sports or Wii Fit to drive market adoption, it was doing just as well without things like Ring Fit and Labo was more or less a dud. If you remove Wii Sports and Wii Fit from the Wii it would massively damage that platform, but if you removed Ring Fit and Brain Training from Switch nothing would change.

And unlike Wii, the portable console concept is much harder for Sony/MS to copy like they did with Kinect and PS Move (thus rendering the Wii not so special all of the sudden) ... they would have to commit to a portable platform while also supporting a home console and we've seen that's very hard for Sony to manage (PSVita).

So likely there isn't going to be a portable console alternative available for some time if at all. Game streaming to portable devices may be a long term area of concern, but for now, most people don't have unlimited data plans for their home internet, let alone wireless internet 5G that would allow for widespread portable game streaming.

Decline in years 4/5/6 is normal for just about any hardware platform, there are some systems like the XBox 360 that buck that trend but not many. 

I am thinking the same thing. The Switch has the potential to be a player in the marketplace for another few years. Animal Crossing New Horizons (with or without the virus) shows that the Switch has a lot of legs left.

Sure, we pretty much got all of the big hitters from Zelda to Mario to Pokemon to Smash to Animal Crossing. But as evergreens, they are selling as well as ever. So regardless of how new the Nintendo titles are during the Switch's lifecycle, the big Nintendo titles are still prominent in the market. Who would've imagined Zelda: BotW still selling at a respectable rate more than 3 years into the Switch's life?

Nevertheless, sequels/remakes/remasters/etc. of popular series have potential to gain new audiences on the Switch. Imagine a remake of one of Fire Emblem's most beloved installments like Geneology of the Holy War or Blazing Blade w/Binding Blade? We are already talking about the possibilities of a remake/remaster of Super Mario 64, one of the greatest games of all-time. FFVII Remake and RE2Remake have shown that remakes of beloved classics can be potential console movers. Hell, MK8D is a console mover (and the best selling Switch game) and is a deluxe port. Of course its Mario Kart, but still impressive nonetheless.

Then we have B-tier and C-tier series like Star Fox, F-Zero, and maybe Punch Out! get new installments. Hell, Metroid Prime 4 has great potential as fans of the series have long-awaited for this game. Same with Bayonetta 3 and Shin Megami Tensei V. They may not move a lot of consoles, but they can continue building and diversifying that Switch userbase. So there are titles on the horizon, and others that are completely unknown to us, that Nintendo and their partners are developing.

I also think that Google Stadia's blunder has affected the hype for streaming games. Then you have Japan to consider. People in Japan are still trying to win lotteries to reserve a console, let alone buy one, at this time. With next-gen, how many people, considering the economic climate we are in, are willing to buy new $450-$500 consoles with some launch titles, by the end of 2020 or even the beginning of 2021? Most would be focused on getting back on their feet first I would assume, especially in the US.

As long as Nintendo are committed to supporting the Switch with solid titles for the next few years, then 100 million will be reached in no time, even as the console declines in sales.

Last edited by Kai_Mao - on 18 April 2020