DFC Intelligence (analyst) doesn't think the Switch will pass the 100 million mark

[DélioPT]

xMetroid said:

DélioPT said:

Nintendo always had evergreens.
Even the Wii had monstruous evergreen titles, but that didn't - and doesn't - mean that it's enough. As soon as Nintendo stopped having major titles for Wii, or even other consoles, sales went down. Why? Because Nintendo consoles rely too much on Nintendo's SW. And when that doesn't work...

The question is not how many games Nintendo can produce or if they are great games.
The problem is that a quality game is not equal to system seller.
Since Wii, the only system seller Nintendo has made is Splatoon.

I didn't put in question quality, but "the quantity of 1st party system sellers".

Offering something different from PS5 or Series X might be a factor, but it may not be at the same time.
The data you mention suggests that only 30% of Switch owners don't own any other console. Which means that 70% have. And that is where the problem lies: there's a high risk that if PS5 and Series X are that attractive, PS4 and XB1 users will decide to buy it instead of a Switch.

Simplifying, a secondary console might not be a problem now but that is because those Sony and MS consumers have no other real option and if they want something more, for a 300$ and less, Switch is a good investment.
My belief is that if those new consoles are priced right and their features are really relevant, than, Switch can indeed take a hit, as the largest chunk of it's userbase is made of those same consumers.

Switch didn't have an official price cut, but they had a Lite at 100$/€ less.

Wii's marketing strategy fade away pretty quickly and it wasn't a very loved console. There were also pretty much no games in the last years.

Switch on the other hand, has a totally different demographic. Top sellers aren't only family titles but things like Botw are going to sell 20+ millions.

Sure, 70% of the install base own another console. But what tells you they might just stick with the Switch if Nintendo is aggressive enought with a new model and big titles ? What tells you the new consoles won't be under 450/500$ and people right now don't really have the money for that ? What even tells you the lineup for these new consoles won't get delayed and the first year won't be lackluster ? Switch was out in PS4's peak but PS4 owners were still buying a Switch. Not everyone buys a console at the same time. And the numbers for software the Switch is producing shows that people really love the console and want to invest in it. It is selling faster than the PS4 after all....

Not saying the next gen won't affect it at all, but i'm really not expecting a huge it. Demand for the Switch is at it's peak right now and many gamers are well aware the PS5 is a thing and even more the Series X that literally got shown. 

And for the lite, we saw before the pandemic that people still higly prefer the classic Switch they just wanted one that much they had to go with a lite cause the other one was out of stock. Nothing says these won't go and buy a classic model later on too.

By the way, there was a pretty significant boost last year for the "new" switch classic with more battery life while it literally wasn't even advertised and only had 1h more battery. Really shows there is multiple ways for Nintendo to push the console like a pro model of sort. A price cut would be huge and never a system didn't get one before it's fourth year, it's just insane.   

There is a report Nintendo expected it to sell 110 millions, so i'm sure it means they plan a long lifecycle for it (hints of why it doesn't have any cuts)  and probably other sku on the way. At the end of the year it should hit pass the 70 millions mark if Nintendo does the bare minimum but i'm sure they will get pretty aggressive now. We're entering the second part of it's life and it should be about system diversity and aggressive pricing. 

"There were also pretty much no games in the last years."
If by this you mean Nintendo games, then yeah. There weren't. And that was one of the main issues for it's lack of longetivity.

As i said, there are a lot of unknowns.
All we have seen is HW. No games, no way to actually see how HW novelties will play a roll, how MS, for exemple, will expand it's All Access program, etc., etc.
There are no certainties.

Switch did still sell a lot despite PS4 selling a lot… but isn't that weird? 3 consoles going after the same audience and no one takes a hit?
When Switch was released, there was already a userbase of 80+ million units sold of PS4 and XB1 ready for the taking, not to mention that new consoles were still years away.

PS4 and XB1 had to make the transition from last gen to this gen. Switch didn't have to take that fight.

How many consumers do you expect to pay 500$/€ (300 + 200) to have basically the same experience?

HW revisions do help extend the lifecycle of a console, but it doesn't work miracles.
And, i might be mistaken, but HW revisions that don't bring something significant have a small impact over time. 
The biggest revision that i can think of is DS Lite.

Don't really see a price cut having that kind of impact for 2 reasons:
People who don't mind losing the home console aspect of it are more than happy with Switch Lite;
When we see Switch selling so well even after 4 years, it probably means that people are more than willing to pay that price and seeing as there never was a price cut anyway, some were "forced" to fork out the 300 bucks.
Again, Lite already cut into that potential market.

PS4 sales most likely remained as big due to pricecuts. But another things that they had was a constant flow of games that the market wanted and that might just be Nintendo's problems: they might cut the price but where are the system sellers in 2020, 2021 and 2022?
If they are there, then, great. If they are not there, price cuts and revisions will help, but the hype will begin to fall.

Nintendo's big triumph over the competition is their system selling games. It's also their biggest weakness as they rely to much on them.
If they want to succeed in the coming years, they better have new system sellers ready to take Mario and friends' place.